daddylonglegs Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 BUCK- LSE should breaks out the chains and hammers and straighten out the rest of these offices. THEN FOCUS TURNS TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE 08.12Z GFS AND NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A FARTHER SOUTH AND COOLER SOLUTION...WITH DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST 08.12Z ECMWF INDICATING A FARTHER NORTH AND WARMER SOLUTION. WITH THE 08.12Z ECMWF WETTER AND WARMER SOLUTION...COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE 08.12Z GFS AND NAM ARE COLDER AND DRIER SOLUTIONS... HENCE PRODUCE LESS SNOW. HOWEVER... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Is this type of setup more supportive of LES between London and Barrie? You mentioned elsewhere that last weekend's storm was a... oh what was it... 334/500 storm? Which is typically not supportive of LES around this area I think you said? You're a bit off there. Probably too early to get into the specifics of wind direction, but looking at the GFS sfc plots, it looks like it'll be a NNW event again (320-330) and thereabouts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I gotta laugh....I don't care what anyone says....there is a definite backyard bias amongst NWS offices wrt situations like this. I'm not picking on any single region, I think it's pretty much across the board. Below is a clip from BUF: IT APPEARS VERY LIKELY THAT A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AS A DEEP AND INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER TROF ENTERS APPROACHES THE EAST COAST. THE PART THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH IS IF/WHEN/WHERE A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP. STILL FEEL THAT FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL STANDPOINT...A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORED GIVEN THE FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE NOT TOO MUCH IS READ IN THE SPECIFICS...THE OPERATIONAL GFS APPEARS MUCH MORE PLAUSIBLE THAN THE EUROPEAN/GGEM...AND IS MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH OUR GOING FORECAST. That is sort of necessary though. Clearly we're all weenies too (well most of us at least), but part of the job is to properly convey threats to the public. And if one particular model is showing a solution that poses a threat, the possibility should be discussed. Not necessarily forecast, but at least discussed. Plus I think it's a pretty common bias for most people to accept a solution that validates their own thinking. It's difficult to completely remove sometimes, but emotion should play no part in a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Henry Margusity is still talking about this storm transferring to the coast. I haven't seen this anywhere else. Is this supported or just wishcasting? GFS shows a bit of transfer to the coast, although not a true coastal, more of an inland runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I gotta laugh....I don't care what anyone says....there is a definite backyard bias amongst NWS offices wrt situations like this. I'm not picking on any single region, I think it's pretty much across the board. Below is a clip from BUF: IT APPEARS VERY LIKELY THAT A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AS A DEEP AND INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER TROF ENTERS APPROACHES THE EAST COAST. THE PART THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH IS IF/WHEN/WHERE A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP. STILL FEEL THAT FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL STANDPOINT...A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORED GIVEN THE FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE NOT TOO MUCH IS READ IN THE SPECIFICS...THE OPERATIONAL GFS APPEARS MUCH MORE PLAUSIBLE THAN THE EUROPEAN/GGEM...AND IS MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH OUR GOING FORECAST. I have read several disco's coming out of the mid-west this afternoon, as well as the MS Valley, and that seems to be the general flavor of discounting the 12z EC for either latent heat feedback, or lack of continuity, and siding with the GFS UK solution. Not sure how much certainty there is in either one at this point, or most of the AFD's I have read today, but a heavy bias atm towards the latter solutions. This one from KSGF sounds similar... THAT UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AS WE GET INTO THESATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS. THE NAM WAS IGNORED AS IT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PLAY CATCH UP WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS THE NEXT FEW RUNS. THE 12Z ECMWF WAS ALSO IGNORED FOR TWO REASONS. GIVEN THAT THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS RESIDES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...IT IS TOO QUICK TO CLOSE OFF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IN ADDITION...THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE TOO QUICK TO STOP DIGGING THE LOW GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE DIGGING ENERGY. THE 12Z UKMET AND GFS APPEAR MUCH MORE BELIEVABLE KEEPING THE WAVE PRETTY MUCH OPEN AND QUICKLY PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST. THIS ENERGY WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO TAKE THE TURN EAST AS IT ENCOUNTERS THAT LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS BY SUNDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Henry Margusity is still talking about this storm transferring to the coast. I haven't seen this anywhere else. Is this supported or just wishcasting? Wishcasting, which is sad coming from a Met. If he gave sound reasoning it would be different, but he is riding the GFS's attempt at forming a coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I really like the reasoning from SGF, though I have pause considering the ensembles taking the leap with the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Most AFD's seem to be discounting the 12z EURO: Springfield, MO NWS: THAT UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AS WE GET INTO THE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS. THE NAM WAS IGNORED AS IT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PLAY CATCH UP WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS THE NEXT FEW RUNS. THE 12Z ECMWF WAS ALSO IGNORED FOR TWO REASONS. GIVEN THAT THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS RESIDES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...IT IS TOO QUICK TO CLOSE OFF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IN ADDITION...THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE TOO QUICK TO STOP DIGGING THE LOW GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE DIGGING ENERGY. THE 12Z UKMET AND GFS APPEAR MUCH MORE BELIEVABLE KEEPING THE WAVE PRETTY MUCH OPEN AND QUICKLY PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST. THIS ENERGY WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO TAKE THE TURN EAST AS IT ENCOUNTERS THAT LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS BY SUNDAY. St. Louis AFD: STILL A LOT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POSITION AND TRACK OF THE MAIN VORT MAX AND SFC LOW. FOR NOW FOLLOWED THE GFS MODEL AS IT HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT. THIS MODEL DOES NOT CLOSE OFF A 500 MB LOW BUT DOES DEEPEN A SFC/850 MB LOW SE OF THE AREA. IT APPEARS THAT THE BETTER SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR FROM STL NEWD TOWARDS SPI SAT NGT AS THE STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES E OF THE AREA. STRONG AND GUSTY NWLY SFC WINDS BEHIND THE CDFNT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE REGION FOR SAT NGT AND SUN. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES SUN MRNG...ALTHOUGH IF THE SLOWER...CLOSED OFF SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF MODEL WERE TO VERIFY THE SNOW WOULD BE SLOWER TO END ACROSS IL. DVN AFD: OVERVIEW...MODEL INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION GOOD EXCEPT FOR HI- RES ECMWF WHICH SUFFERS FROM LATENT HEAT RELEASE FEEDBACK ISSUES FOR SATURDAY. ALL OTHER SOLUTIONS TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH DEEP UPPER TROUGH THIS WEEKEND TO LIMIT WEEKEND SNOW AMOUNTS. WELL BELOW TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW COVERED AREAS BELOW ZERO AT TIMES. USED A 60/40 BLEND OF 80KM NAM-WRF FORCING AND GFS INTO SATURDAY. SATURDAY ON...USED A BLEND OF GFS/UKMET AND GEM- NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 You're a bit off there. Probably too early to get into the specifics of wind direction, but looking at the GFS sfc plots, it looks like it'll be a NNW event again (320-330) and thereabouts. Wouldn't it be wild if the same areas received another 3-5 feet of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 18Z GFS is now out in the first 78 hours for anyone interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Simply put, as SGF stated, it makes more sense for the trough to continue digging rather than wrapping up. The 00z Euro op/ensembles ought to be enlightening. If they hold their ground I'll be more cautious to throw them out. Sure it's possible that the 12z run had one glaring initialization error that caused the ensembles to mostly favor a northern track. But initialization is supposed to be the Euro's forte, and ensembles are supposed to mitigate those issues further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 GFS looks like it's going to be completely strung out garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 GFS looks like it's going to be completely strung out garbage. yes it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 GFS is getting there imo. The PV tried to get involved around hr. 69 but it was a strung out mess. A stronger s/w, we probably would have seen a much stronger and farther NW track. Anyone else agree with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 GFS looks like it's going to be completely strung out garbage. Looks like? In fact it shows better snowfall potential with the upper low as it track across Iowa and northern Illinois than it does for the Ohio Valley now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 geezus the 18z gfs is an absolute cluster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Even the 18z DGEX is more impressive than the 18z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Just when the GFS couldn't get anymore clueless I give you the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 GFS looks like it's going to be completely strung out garbage. It's unbelievably incoherent BUT, notice its emphasis on the northern low/inverted trough now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Looks like? In fact it shows better snowfall potential with the upper low as it track across Iowa and northern Illinois than it does for the Ohio Valley now. Yeah, I saw that. Drys up by the time it gets here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 even the 18Z nocraps holds it own but a little further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Henry Margusity is still talking about this storm transferring to the coast. I haven't seen this anywhere else. Is this supported or just wishcasting? it's an accuwx default preference. Until proven otherwise, every winterstorm is an i-95 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 It's unbelievably incoherent BUT, notice its emphasis on the northern low/inverted trough now. seems to be the one take away of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Good times...DVN says Euro suffers from convective feedback issues, MKX says it's the Americans. It's nice to know truth in science is always so exact and empirical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 even the 18Z nocraps holds it own but a little further north the nocraps pattern for this storm is to lock onto a solution and keep it for approx 4 runs, then switch to a drastically different solution again for 4 runs... I lost count, but i would imagine either tonights 00z run or tmrw's 6z it should flip again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 It's unbelievably incoherent BUT, notice its emphasis on the northern low/inverted trough now. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems the GFS is more progressive with the southern s/w, not really digging it until it gets closer to the coast. Also, perhaps the northern s/w is quicker, acting as a kicker which prevents the southern wave from slowing and amplifying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 It's unbelievably incoherent BUT, notice its emphasis on the northern low/inverted trough now. and with the snow associated with that there is going to be nice snow ratios so that could even being an advisory event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I can't remember what AFD it was, but someone was saying there could be 18:1 ratios with the 2nd storm. GFS gives a pretty good area of .25-.5 qpf, which would easily be advisory snows with 18:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 on_wx, check out the extended DGEX. It's resolution is refined enough to capture in on next week's LES. Basically the exact same areas that got dumped on this week get dumped on again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Even the 18z DGEX is more impressive than the 18z GFS: WTF, 18z DGEX isnt even available for me via PSU E-wall, its still on yesterdays...grrr NVM, its up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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