Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV Snow Event? Part II

[Chicago Storm]

Back to a $man tossing up monoply money solution.. w/e

You can say that again.

[The_Global_Warmer]

my money says the euro mean take it to ohio somewhere (bold statement i know).

That would make the most sense from what we have seen. Taking a compromise is a Paduach to North Central Ohio track.

[JoMo]

Which brings me back to a question I asked earlier... when are we going to have this really sampled well?

That's a little hard to say because it's not really a storm and it's kind of strung out. Probably won't be completely in the network until Friday.

[The_Global_Warmer]

JMA has 999mb low in west central KY at 96 hours

[buckeye]

the trough position isn't that much different between the gfs and euro at 96.....euro closes a low in the center of it and the gfs has the energy at the front base.

the difference is the euro has a surface low in N. IN and the gfs has a surface low in W. NC

[A-L-E-K]

P001, 002, 004, and 006 are especially weird. They seem to have some sort of intermediate area of low pressure over WI around 72 hours. It's not the main storm to the SW nor the initial clipper.

Looking at this 12z Euro map, it is has two seperate low pressures as well (not clipper obv).

[Chicago Storm]

Looking at this 12z Euro map, it is has two seperate low pressures as well (not clipper obv).

The GFS also has this northern low, but it ends up focusing on the southern low...unlike the Euro.

[Hoosier]

Here's the dictionary definition of assertion:

a positive statement or declaration, often without support or reason.

Seems to me to be a word synonymous with "wishcast". So I'm not sure what distinction there you're trying to make.

And when somebody posts "JMA is north", I find much greater utility in that then a weenie's wishcast based solely on his desire for it to snow IHBY. The former scenario at least provides me with some information, while the latter is completely useless, unless it's backed up with some kind of valid reasoning.

But hey, everybody differs in what grinds their gears. I'm sure Hoosier will take out the garbage when/if it starts to overflow.

I understand the excitement but these threads are starting to get unreadable at times. This isn't a race to pad your post count. Sometimes less is more. If you're going to wishcast with no reasoning, post smilies, whine, etc. then you probably shouldn't bother.

[The_Global_Warmer]

The highly respected FIM takes the LP threw KY/TN by 96 hours on the 60km run.

30km run has the LP in East Central Arkansas at 84 hours

[buckeye]

The highly respected FIM takes the LP threw KY/TN by 96 hours on the 60km run.

30km run has the LP in East Central Arkansas at 84 hours

The FIM may win the consistency award on this one....

it may end up being cosistently wrong but still consistent

[buckeye]

Anyways, JMA goes from paducah to philly

[TheWeatherPimp]

12Z JMA continues a track across the Lower Ohio River Valley

[dilly84]

Anyways, JMA goes from paducah to philly

That is the track we need, Buckeye. ILN updated their long term discussion.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --CONSENSUS IS BUILDING AMONG MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT A SIGNIFICANT

WINTER STORM WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND/OR LOWER GREAT

LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GEM MODELS TOOK

A DRAMATIC SHIFT SOUTH...PLACING THESE MODELS IN REASONABLE

AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF ENS...OP GFS AND GEFS MEAN SOLUTIONS WITH AN

OCCLUDING SFC LOW TRACKING SOMEWHERE WITHIN 200 KM OF THE OHIO

RIVER. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW

SOMEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES AND

A TROWAL DEVELOPS. WHERE THIS OCCURS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE

AND WHEN THE CYCLONE BEGINS THE OCCLUSION PROCESS...WHICH IS STILL

HIGHLY VARIABLE AMONG MED RANGE MODELS. SHOULD THIS LOW OCCLUDE

EARLIER...AS OFTEN SEEMS THE CASE WITH THESE TYPES OF

SYSTEMS...THEN A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK WOULD RESULT KEEPING

SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOCUSED OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.

AHEAD OF THE LOW...A FEW DAYS OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS

TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE

LOW TRACK...SO AT THIS TIME FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM

DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...WHAT DOES APPEAR

INCREASINGLY CERTAIN IS THAT SNOW SHOWERS AND NORTHERLY WINDS

GUSTING NEAR 40 MPH WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF BLOWING SNOW AND

BITTER WIND CHILLS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY CONTINUING

INTO MONDAY. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A PARTICULARLY HIGH BLOWING

SNOW HAZARD WHEREVER THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS...AND SIGNIFICANT

TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE POSSIBLE WHEREVER THIS OCCURS.

[buckeye]

That is the track we need, Buckeye. ILN updated their long term discussion.

i actually posted that afd this morning....not sure what wording has changed

[WxMidwest]

Things are going to get interesting with the models 24-36 hours from now, that should be fun times...

[jbcmh81]

That is the track we need, Buckeye. ILN updated their long term discussion.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --CONSENSUS IS BUILDING AMONG MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT A SIGNIFICANT

WINTER STORM WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND/OR LOWER GREAT

LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GEM MODELS TOOK

A DRAMATIC SHIFT SOUTH...PLACING THESE MODELS IN REASONABLE

AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF ENS...OP GFS AND GEFS MEAN SOLUTIONS WITH AN

OCCLUDING SFC LOW TRACKING SOMEWHERE WITHIN 200 KM OF THE OHIO

RIVER. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW

SOMEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES AND

A TROWAL DEVELOPS. WHERE THIS OCCURS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE

AND WHEN THE CYCLONE BEGINS THE OCCLUSION PROCESS...WHICH IS STILL

HIGHLY VARIABLE AMONG MED RANGE MODELS. SHOULD THIS LOW OCCLUDE

EARLIER...AS OFTEN SEEMS THE CASE WITH THESE TYPES OF

SYSTEMS...THEN A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK WOULD RESULT KEEPING

SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOCUSED OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.

AHEAD OF THE LOW...A FEW DAYS OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS

TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE

LOW TRACK...SO AT THIS TIME FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM

DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...WHAT DOES APPEAR

INCREASINGLY CERTAIN IS THAT SNOW SHOWERS AND NORTHERLY WINDS

GUSTING NEAR 40 MPH WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF BLOWING SNOW AND

BITTER WIND CHILLS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY CONTINUING

INTO MONDAY. THESE WINDS WILL CREATE A PARTICULARLY HIGH BLOWING

SNOW HAZARD WHEREVER THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS...AND SIGNIFICANT

TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE POSSIBLE WHEREVER THIS OCCURS.

That was this morning's AFD. Won't have a new one for a few hours.

[The_Global_Warmer]

I think what's annoying everyone more than Dr. No's solution in relation to the current general consensus is that virtually no meteorlogist wants to touch this storm with a 10-foot pole.

All of them have just been posting the vague stuff we already know.

If it was any other model it would be thrown out.

and it is most likely wrong, well more like almost certain to be wrong.

But the euro is supposed to be the best so it can't be completely dismissed.

but in all likelihood us talking about the euro is like fans of the Arizona Diamondbacks coming up with trade ideas to get Pujols, it is unrealistic.

I do like the idea of a closed low like the euro has, I just don't see how it happens with a 150KT jet streaking down the Rockies with where the euro places it.

I am still learning on a 995-999mb low around Paducah moving ENE from there with the main snow band forming from Columbia, MO to LAF into Michigan with Chicago and St. Louis getting less and anywhere along that track.

I expect 2-3 inches here with either type or track and the modest band north of me.

[A-L-E-K]

I think what's annoying everyone more than Dr. No's solution in relation to the current general consensus is that virtually no meteorlogist wants to touch this storm with a 10-foot pole.

All of them have just been posting the vague stuff we already know.

We had some really nice info from a quite a few mets (csnaywx, oceanstwx, northern-in-wx come to mind) but they're not going to come out and make a bold call when it clearly isn't prudent to do so.

[JayPSU]

i actually posted that afd this morning....not sure what wording has changed

Yep, they typically don't do the afd until 5pm and tend to be LAST with it.

[BowMeHunter]

Wow, beautiful coupled jet structure showing up at 300/250mb on the GFS. Euro shows hints of that too. If this is the case, our global models may be underdoing the cyclogenesis, especially around the time it approaches and crosses the Mississippi River. They already show deepening rates around the threshold for explosive cyclogenesis, but I'd imagine a good mesoscale model will tell the real story when we get inside 72 hr.

As always lots of questions with this one. Interesting to note the potential phasing with the wave dropping into the Western Great Lakes. For all the reasons mentioned above, and climo, I would tend to agree that a farther northwest solution will end up verifying. An early guess would be northern IL, southeast WI, and much of lower MI receive a a significant snowfall (along/north of I-80). Wrap around advisory stuff across central IL into northern IN and northern OH. To me, this fits the December La Nina climate. Time will tell...still a while until this thing gets truly sampled.

Yes, however the NAM is in the incipient stages of explosive cyclogenesis given the upper air pattern at 300 mb with those coupled jet maxes (right rear quad + left front quad maximizing upper divergence).

Yes, and a 6-12 hour difference on this type of system is huge for determining precip amt and placement.

If you remove some of the ridiculous outliers (like the entire terribad ETA member set and a couple of the obvious ones from the other two), you end up with a pretty even set of lake cutters that average out to a more northerly track, probably a lot more like Dee's map there suggests, though I'd expect a tail of accums to the SW too.

I think what's annoying everyone more than Dr. No's solution in relation to the current general consensus is that virtually no meteorlogist wants to touch this storm with a 10-foot pole.

All of them have just been posting the vague stuff we already know.

Some thoughts earlier in the thread... Though they might be considered wishcast by a few

See ya's at 0z... For another episode of clueless.

[LizardMafia]

Anyways, JMA goes from paducah to philly

Take a look at the person who said that quote this morning, check his tune now..

[buckeye]

That was this morning's AFD. Won't have a new one for a few hours.

It's ILN...could be 6-7 oclock...either way i GUARANTEE it will be the last one out in our time zone.

[jbcmh81]

It's ILN...could be 6-7 oclock...either way i GUARANTEE it will be the last one out in our time zone.

And it won't resolve anything anyway, since we have nowhere near a consensus track. I imagine they might just rehash that same discussion instead of writing a new one.

[buckeye]

Take a look at the person who said that quote this morning, check his tune now..

WOW good catch. You gotta be kidding me! He's going with a coastal?!?!?!?!?!?!?

[JoMo]

I take it the 12z ECMWF ensemble mean looks like the GFS?

HPC discussion:

http://www.hpc.ncep....ons/pmdepd.html

A MODERATE TO HVY SNOW SNOW EVENT ACROSS NRN IL/NRN IN AND SRN MISAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

[A-L-E-K]

I take it the 12z ECMWF ensemble mean looks like the GFS?

HPC discussion:

http://www.hpc.ncep....ons/pmdepd.html

Nice to hear the HPC is liking this area. It's always nice to have the Euro on your side, even though it looks better north and west of here. The only other model showing some love right now is the 12z nocraps which flip flops like John Kerry/McCain.

[The_Global_Warmer]

I take it the 12z ECMWF ensemble mean looks like the GFS?

HPC discussion:

http://www.hpc.ncep....ons/pmdepd.html

They may be referring to yesterdays Euro ensembles.

[weatherbo]

Nice to hear the HPC is liking this area. It's always nice to have the Euro on your side, even though it looks better north and west of here. The only other model showing some love right now is the 12z nocraps which flip flops like John Kerry/McCain.

They're on crack half the time tho.

[A-L-E-K]

They're on crack half the time tho.

It is the extended discussion after all, you can't expect superb accuracy.

FWIW the day 4-5 QPF maps haven't changed too much, but are wetter and a little south,

[JoMo]

They may be referring to yesterdays Euro ensembles.

Don't know really.

They put this in the map today. Low goes from S OK/N TX to here: