aslkahuna Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 Typical End-of-Monsoon transition pattern with a trough offshore from SoCA, upper High to the SE and a moisture flow in between with decent shear and instability. Strong to severe boomers came through last evening with large hail reported in places and some wind damage. Three severe warnings already out today. Such patterns can be tornadic and one tornado warning was issued for a storm NW of Tucson. Pattern expec ted to evolve into more of a dumper pattern tomorrow and then the monsoon flow will be terminated next week. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 Typical End-of-Monsoon transition pattern with a trough offshore from SoCA, upper High to the SE and a moisture flow in between with decent shear and instability. Strong to severe boomers came through last evening with large hail reported in places and some wind damage. Three severe warnings already out today. Such patterns can be tornadic and one tornado warning was issued for a storm NW of Tucson. Pattern expec ted to evolve into more of a dumper pattern tomorrow and then the monsoon flow will be terminated next week. Steve just wondering if you have the stats concerning the earliest end to the monsoon season, and the latest end to the monsoon season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted September 11, 2011 Author Share Posted September 11, 2011 just wondering if you have the stats concerning the earliest end to the monsoon season, and the latest end to the monsoon season... I'll have to check Tucson's site tomorrw since I only have the numbers for my place in Sierra Vista-however, this time in September is within the range for a normal end (and it's going out in style at my house tonight and tomorrow may bring more) Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted September 11, 2011 Author Share Posted September 11, 2011 Tucson doesn't have end dates just beginning dates though you have to remember that by Imperial Decree NWS declared the monsoon as being from June 15th through September 30th officially. Of course Nature has different timing. Based upon my records from 1987 through 2007 at my place in Sierra Vista, I have an earliest end date of August 20th in 2004 and latest of October 20th in 1988 with an average end date of September 7th. My start dates were pretty close to the official ones with one exception (1994 where NWS called a false start as real) so I suspect that my end ones would have been as well. 1988 was a monsoon for the ages-it started as usual in July and the rains refused to quit with nearly 20 inches of rain between July and October. Incidentally, we did well last night with 1.66 in of rain and 2.19 in for the past two days-and we still have a chance for more. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed Stough Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 With the tremendous storm development that has been over the entire state the past several days. I have yet to be in one of the storms. The majority of PHX has missed the storms. It seems there is a dome of protection that is keeping the storms for hitting us. The outskirts of town have been hit hard, but from about 101N/S to I-17 we just can't seem to get a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Tucson doesn't have end dates just beginning dates though you have to remember that by Imperial Decree NWS declared the monsoon as being from June 15th through September 30th officially. Of course Nature has different timing. Based upon my records from 1987 through 2007 at my place in Sierra Vista, I have an earliest end date of August 20th in 2004 and latest of October 20th in 1988 with an average end date of September 7th. My start dates were pretty close to the official ones with one exception (1994 where NWS called a false start as real) so I suspect that my end ones would have been as well. 1988 was a monsoon for the ages-it started as usual in July and the rains refused to quit with nearly 20 inches of rain between July and October. Incidentally, we did well last night with 1.66 in of rain and 2.19 in for the past two days-and we still have a chance for more. Steve thanks for looking up that info...much appreciated...glad the monsoon is going out with a bang! the monsoon is my favorite time of year in the SW...transitioning back to dry air and nose bleeds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted September 13, 2011 Author Share Posted September 13, 2011 With the tremendous storm development that has been over the entire state the past several days. I have yet to be in one of the storms. The majority of PHX has missed the storms. It seems there is a dome of protection that is keeping the storms for hitting us. The outskirts of town have been hit hard, but from about 101N/S to I-17 we just can't seem to get a storm. Normally, the ULL with the transition pattern is off the coast of SoCA instead of over SoCA like now and the moisture plume is wider hence PHX gets in on the act and often gets more than us (case in point last October). The moisture surge has been narrow this time around-even Cochise County has been stiffed somewhat as has western Pima County. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted September 14, 2011 Author Share Posted September 14, 2011 To add to my comments immediately above, there's another reason for certain areas not getting in on the action (which continues today in Tucson). That's the Dreaded Dry Slot which in this case would set up between the western edge of the moisture plume and the activity associated with the ULL itself in SoCA and western and NW AZ. The dryline associated with this dry slot as been most evident in Central and Southern Pima County as where the storms affecting Tucson have formed every day. We are now close to 3 inches total rainfall since Friday and just barely below the average monsoon rainfall. Such a persistent pattern is very common with the monsoon in Cochise County. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.