Matt Rogers Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I am definitely intrigued by the lack of a significant solar Ap response to the recent upturn in solar activity. Seems to be a serious disconnect: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Rogers Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I am definitely intrigued by the lack of a significant solar Ap response to the recent upturn in solar activity. Seems to be a serious disconnect: Goes pack to the Livingston and Penn study suggesting that while spots are coming back, the magnetic part may not be as much: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted October 13, 2011 Author Share Posted October 13, 2011 Latest magnetic field anomalies show this unusual behavior. There is definitely a lot of evidence for a grand minimum coming up. This appears to be the weakest cycle since cycle 14, especially ap-wise. But are the factors elevated enough this winter to keep the blocking from being as extreme as the ap-min in 09-10 and secondary min last winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Latest magnetic field anomalies show this unusual behavior. There is definitely a lot of evidence for a grand minimum coming up. This appears to be the weakest cycle since cycle 14, especially ap-wise. But are the factors elevated enough this winter to keep the blocking from being as extreme as the ap-min in 09-10 and secondary min last winter? I'm curious as to why the AP index dropped back in the mid-late 2000's yet it took about 3 years for the blocking to show up. Do you know why this is the case? Is there some sort of lag in response to AP, or maybe a threshold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 I don't know if anybody did this yet but here are the snowfall totals for the years HM denoted -ENSO/-QBO vs -ENSO/+QBO for various northeast cities. BTV, CON, PWM and ORH did better in -QBO years. BOS, BDL, PVD, NYC, PHL, BWI and DCA did better in +QBO years. You can clearly see the sharper latitudinal gradient in the -QBO years. If you link me to annual or monthly snowfall data for other locations I'll add them to my excel file and repost. BTV CON PWM BOS ORH BDL PVD NYC PHL BWI DCA Neg ENSO neg QBO 94.3 77.1 80.1 44.0 69.6 53.4 36.0 19.7 16.6 14.4 12.0 Neg ENSO pos QBO 87.4 71.5 78.8 46.6 66.9 49.4 39.9 28.7 23.5 20.7 14.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Here is also the samples' average DJFM ap index. 55-56: 11.625 61-62: 13.75 64-65: 7 66-67: 10 71-72: 11.25 73-74: 16.25 75-76: 16.25 85-86: 16.75 99-00: 12 08-09: 4.5 10-11: 6 67-68: 13.5 88-89: 22 95-96: 9.75 avg 12.1875 56-57: 11.625 62-63: 13.75 70-71: 11 74-75: 17.25 89-90: 19 96-97: 8.75 00-01: 10.5 05-06: 7.25 07-08: 9 84-85: 15 98-99: 11 01-02: 9.25 avg 11.94791667 Both data sets have roughly the same ap index average, too. Can you give a link to these historical monthly AP index values? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted October 21, 2011 Author Share Posted October 21, 2011 Can you give a link to these historical monthly AP index values? No problem... Source: http://www-app3.gfz-potsdam.de/kp_index/ftpreferences.html The actual file: ftp://ftp.gfz-potsdam.de/pub/home/obs/kp-ap/ap_monyr.ave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted October 21, 2011 Author Share Posted October 21, 2011 I don't know if anybody did this yet but here are the snowfall totals for the years HM denoted -ENSO/-QBO vs -ENSO/+QBO for various northeast cities. BTV, CON, PWM and ORH did better in -QBO years. BOS, BDL, PVD, NYC, PHL, BWI and DCA did better in +QBO years. You can clearly see the sharper latitudinal gradient in the -QBO years. If you link me to annual or monthly snowfall data for other locations I'll add them to my excel file and repost. BTV CON PWM BOS ORH BDL PVD NYC PHL BWI DCA Neg ENSO neg QBO 94.3 77.1 80.1 44.0 69.6 53.4 36.0 19.7 16.6 14.4 12.0 Neg ENSO pos QBO 87.4 71.5 78.8 46.6 66.9 49.4 39.9 28.7 23.5 20.7 14.8 That is pretty cool, but I am worried about data issues, especially in some of those New England locations. Either way, it is interesting to see the totals come up in the Mid Atlantic between the two composites (most notably NYC-BWI). You've got some heavy hitters in there like last year and 95-96 (low levels were westerly). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 That is pretty cool, but I am worried about data issues, especially in some of those New England locations. Either way, it is interesting to see the totals come up in the Mid Atlantic between the two composites (most notably NYC-BWI). You've got some heavy hitters in there like last year and 95-96 (low levels were westerly). I didn't include 95-96 b/c it was on your unclear list but that would really bump up the +QBO winters for the more southern areas. Regarding the data quality issues you mentioned, I've excluded years with missing data or used corrected data for ORH and BDL. I've also added two more stations, Mt Mansfield and Rangeley, Maine. Rangeley's data is excellent, Mansfields is OK. Rangeley has averaged 158.0" in -QBO/-ENSO years and 117.8" in +QBO/-ENSO years. HUGE 40"+ differential. Of Rangeley's 4 >170" winters, 3 were -QBO/-ENSO. Mansfield has averaged 254.2" in -QBO/-ENSO years and 213.4" in +QBO/-ENSO years. Pretty big differential too. The NNE stations all seem to do slightly better in -QBO and PVD-NYC south better in +QBO. BDL seems to be the dividing line (I made some corrections to the BDL data last night which brought the +QBO and -QBO nearly equal with each other). Even BOS seems to do better in +QBO (especially if we included 95-96). Probably related to the better odds of -NAO in a +QBO. You really have to be in the interior NW of a line from ORH to PWM in order to prefer a -QBO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Here is also the samples' average DJFM ap index. Hmm...let see Toronto on this; 55-56: 68.4" 61-62: 45.5" 64-65: 75" 66-67: 68" 71-72: 71" 73-74: 53.1" 75-76: 67.2" 85-86: 45.3" 99-00: 32.3" 08-09: 99.7" 10-11: 59.8" 67-68: 46.1" 88-89: 34.3" 95-96: 57.2" avg: 58.7" ( Normal-45-53") 56-57: 52.2" 62-63: 39.4" 70-71: 74" 74-75: 49" 89-90: 49.8" 96-97: 68.7" 00-01: 65.2" 05-06: 33.5" 07-08: 102.8" 84-85: 59.8" 98-99: 64" 01-02: 28.1" avg: 57.2" (Normal 45-53") Either way its all good for me LOL. I'd prefer either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Hmm...let see Toronto on this; Either way its all good for me LOL. I'd prefer either. Where are you getting your toronto normals from? Also I think I might be able to offer some insight or booster to your skeptic AGW blog, if you so choose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Where are you getting your toronto normals from? Also I think I might be able to offer some insight or booster to your skeptic AGW blog, if you so choose. Environment Canada's page along with a few of my own observations. Source Source2 And about the normals it depends what station. Normals And about the climate blog, any help would be awesome. If you want to join just message me or something. I haven't updated it in a while, lol but I plan to do so come November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Can I help too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Can I help too? Yeah sure just PM or I'll PM you. I could use the help though thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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