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Autumn in NNE

tamarack

By tamarack,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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Another day with a high in the 40s... and low and behold we actually had a below normal day. And we actually hit our average low for the date!

Yesterday:

High 49; Low 40; Departure +1

Today:

High 49; Low 33; Departure -2

These are MVL obs above. Emily's Bridge (950ft) in Stowe had a high of 49F today and a low of 31F. There was a nice hard frost/freeze on the windshield this morning.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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If you have some time to kill and you want a good run through of observations, radars, and forecasts of a prime upslope event.... check out J.Spin's compilation of one of our upslope events (the one from early last December).

Those events are so much fun because they are so hard to forecast. BTV started out with 30% chances for snow, then went to an Advisory for 4-8", then Warning for 6-12, then upped the Warning again for an additional 6-12". My records show 18" from almost 3 days of off-and-on snowfall. It looks like J.Spin had 22".

The interesting thing is since this was a 2-3 day event, my maximum snow depth was around 12" even though I got 18" of snow. It settled down to 8" a day or so later. I don't do liquid but J.Spin's data shows 22" of snow for 0.74" of liquid. That's our 30:1 upslope snow that settles down to amounts comparable to a 10:1 ratio within a day or so.

http://jandeproducti...C10weather.html

I can't wait for these events to start back up. Most of the spots in the 15-20" range had 0.5-0.75" of liquid, with the 20"+ spots seeing around 0.75" of liquid equivalent based on BTV's climate maps. Widespread 30:1 ratio broom snow.

07DEC10A.jpg

07DEC10A.gif

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red

red

Posted
Posted

First mention of snow in my point and click this week ...

Thursday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Friday: A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted
Just wait till we actually get into the sweet spot of a storm track for a winter, haha.

I saw this comment in your recent post in the “Snowiest Towns in New England” thread, and it made me think about the winter of 2000-2001. Wasn’t that the season when Jay Peak got 500” – 600” of snow and topped every ski resort in the lower 48 states for total snowfall? I didn’t monitor snowfall back then unfortunately, nor did I follow storm tracks as closely, but what came together to create that season? Were we just locked into the storm track? Unless the snowfall was extremely elevation dependent (and I don’t recall that being the case) I have to think some of the valley sites you’ve been mentioning could have hit the 300” mark. It would be fun to get another one of those seasons, sort of like what parts of the Western U.S. saw last season. Looking at the 1884 – Present BTV Snowfall Data, they received 122.5” that season (less than last season actually), although I’m not sure how that related to what went on in the mountain valleys.

Not surprisingly, both Roger Hill and Bob Minsenberger mentioned the potential for snow later in the week in their morning broadcasts, so that’s in line with what folks are discussing here in the forum. I was up at Bolton for a while yesterday, and all the deciduous trees are essentially bare – for that matter even in the mountain valleys I’ve been seeing many locations with November-style views, so the vegetation around here appears to be ready if snow comes. With the cloudy skies and cool weather yesterday, it definitely felt like the mountain was just waiting for snow. Even the people I saw around in the village seemed to be in that mode. Once the leaves are down and the weather starts to turn, there’s definitely that “stick season” feeling that begs for snow.

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klw

klw

Posted
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33 at the house with a nice frost everywhere.

Big problem in the yard at the moment- I have been trying to plant blueberry bushes but my golden retriever keeps pulling them up and/ or chewing on them. i planted four of them about three weeks back. I put them 2 by 2 in beds I dug up next to a gate and fence in a sunny portion of the backyard. A couple of days later I found that he had dug holes in the loose dirt of the beds. I put stones all around the plants to dissuade him. A few days later I found big holes and he had dug up three of the plants and chewed up two of them quite badly. I put the three plants in a bucket of water in a spot outside the fence until I could get a fence to put around them and used old wire fencing to protect the remaining plant. Friday I bought a wire 14" flower garden fence to serve as a barrier. Yesterday I planted the blueberries again and fenced the area in. About an hour later I found him with the shortest plant in his mouth. I scolded him and replanted what was left. I put wire fence parts arching over the shorter garden fence.

This morning I went out and checked the back as I was headed out to work. The dog had just pulled up the biggest plant and had dislodge another. I yelled at the dog and chased him inside. The plants are now surrounded by the short wire fence, the arching fence sections and three tomato cages. Outside the fence are three adirondack chairs and three foot rests to create a barrier from him from getting to the fence. The dog was so upset that he went inside and ate a toothbrush. Grrrrr.

I hope we get enough snow to just cover these things.

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted

Well I can finally read the NNE thread in peace without the cat lurching at Brian's bug. My low was 34.3F but my Davis Pro is about 25 feet off the ground and the grass is frosted so my growing season is over! Still nice color around but I expect a big leave drop the next 72 hours. Have not read the threads but noted the 6Z shifted south a bit and colder. Got to bring in the last of my wood today from my fields. Webcam shows Newfound Lake in the fog and if I had snapped the picture a minute earlier I would have caught a large coyote drinking out of my pond.

Have a good day guys.

Gene

post-268-0-03282700-1319458832.jpg

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Low of 30F here last night... another hard freeze.

MVL...30F

MPV...31F

BTV...35F

Some of these model runs look like they've been run from Dendrite's basement... particularly the 00z ECM last night.

If the Euro holds serve it will make for a very wintery weekend in NNE.... :popcorn:

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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If the Euro holds serve it will make for a very wintery weekend in NNE.... :popcorn:

3,000ft forecast for 2/3rds of the way up the mountain... after tomorrow it doesn't crack freezing up there for the last 5 days of the forecast period. Even out next Sat and Sun the highs/lows are all below freezing. Any snow that falls will stay up there, haha.

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dryslot

dryslot

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3,000ft forecast for 2/3rds of the way up the mountain... after tomorrow it doesn't crack freezing up there for the last 5 days of the forecast period. Even out next Sat and Sun the highs/lows are all below freezing. Any snow that falls will stay up there, haha.

Thats a great looking point and click........... :snowman::snowman:

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tamarack

tamarack

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Looks like elevated areas in the berkshires, southern greens, and manadnocks are looking pretty good for this one. 3-5" possible with maybe more if we can get this to dump overnight thursday night

At this time looks like the best will be west of Maine, though Rangeley could well get a couple inches - and maybe a few slushy drops for MBY. At least this Saturday's deer season opener won't be a 60F bugfest. Blackflies tend not to be hungry this late in the fall, but can be very annoying while flying into eyes and ears. 40s and wind will take care of that.

Had low 30s (dropped 5F from 5-6:30 AM) with fog patches and frozen dew this AM. Yesterday was 55/30 (13-yr avg for 10/23 is 52/30), for the first frost since the mid 20s of 10/6-7.

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

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Posted

Don't like the trend of flatter, supression that started with the 6Z GFS this AM. 18Z NAM now keeps NNE out of the good QPF. Maybe the 18Z GFS will suprise but I am expecting it to show flatter solution too. The weekend storm is too far away for me to even think about it.

Wrong...18Z GFS is further north. Looses the second storm too. I will go back to lurking, I have no idea whats going on and can't add anything of value to the situation!

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

Wrong...18Z GFS is further north. Looses the second storm too. I will go back to lurking, I have no idea whats going on and can't add anything of value to the situation!

Heh...in the end the models are so good that we're at the mercy of them (for the most part). I can't do billions of calculations in my head. :snowman:

Both storms are interesting to me. I'd take my chances with an 18z GFS-like solution which gives us a more amplified storm 1 and squashes storm 2. I'd prefer most of the precip to fall near/after sunset though like the EC has. The sun angle isn't too bad this time of year (equivalent to ~Feb 20), but any little benefit we can have to cooling the BL would be helpful. Storm 2 may have more upside, but it has a lot more risk for cutting inland too far or getting squashed. Maybe some lucky elevated location (MRG and/or Socks) can squeeze out some accums from both before all is said and done.

I'd definitely like to have another 500' el like you have right now. I can already envision myself swearing at my 34-35F RA while 1kft+ west of me is 32F with parachutes.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Meanwhile it is raining pretty hard... must be some bright-banding higher up with snow levels around 5K feet because although its a steady, hard rain, its not torrential like radar shows.

Late tonight and tomorrow sounds like classic October... breezy, cloudy, upslope sprinkles/showers, heavy rime, etc. With "hefty rime" I'm hoping that maybe the mountain will at least look white even if its not true snow. It would be nice to get that first white-capped view of the season.

ACROSS THE `DACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS, I ANTICIPATE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO THE UPSLOPE FLOW. FREEZING LEVEL WILL FALL TO A BIT UNDER 4000 FEET, THUS THE HIGHEST PEAKS MAY SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW FALL, ALONG WITH SOME HEFTY RIME ICING. DESPITE THE CLOUDS, WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH MIXING THANKS TO CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WE SHOULD TAP INTO SOME OF THE WINDS A COUPLE OF THOUSAND FEET UP -- THUS ANTICIPATE WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS (25-30 MPH) MUCH OF THE DAY.

A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY..

. MODELS SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWING A SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THAT DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY 12Z SATURDAY. GFS MODEL HAS A SOMEWHAT FLATTER UPPER TROUGH AND DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW FURTHER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SATURDAY...AND THEN MOVES IT NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. THIS WOULD KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA DRY. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WILL TAKE THE SURFACE LOW CLOSER TO COAST AND OVER CAPE COD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD GIVE OUR REGION THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS VERMONT. GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME...HAVE OPTED TO PUT IN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

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Allenson

Allenson

Posted
Posted

0.07" with the frontal showers last evening. 40F this morning.

As for any potential upcoming snow--I'm a little 'whatever' about the whole thing, though certainly keeping my ears open and eyes peeled. Even if it does snow, it's pretty unlikely that it would last any amount of time and be the start of the season's pack. It'd be more novelty snow than anything...but fun to watch, make no mistake. :mellow:

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