wxeyeNH Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Yeah, still way off but first real winter threat of the fall season.at least for C/N NE. Time to start (casually) watching the models for later next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Down to 36F this morning with some fairly heavy ground fog. 0.05" yesterday in very pesky showers giving me 11 straight days with a trace or more. Makes sense about the Winooski Valley... and yeah I guess I've seen times where Montpelier is 1/4 mile in a plume and areas north and south are being shadowed. I believe some of that might BTV's radar being blocked by the mountains. It seems to get through in the area along the Winooski valley water gap with no echos visible north or south despite snow falling in those areas. Even over here to the east, we'll be getting NW flow snow with zilch showing on radar. Happens a lot actually. Not to knock the Winooski valley, but whenever I go to Burlington in the winter and drive through there, I'm often underwhelmed by the snowpack along that stretch given the amount of snow that reportedly falls there. Yeah-yeah, I know, low water content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 We may have a threat, haha. 00z GFS is another solid NNE snowstorm for the elevations... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Down to 36F this morning with some fairly heavy ground fog. 0.05" yesterday in very pesky showers giving me 11 straight days with a trace or more. I believe some of that might BTV's radar being blocked by the mountains. It seems to get through in the area along the Winooski valley water gap with no echos visible north or south despite snow falling in those areas. Even over here to the east, we'll be getting NW flow snow with zilch showing on radar. Happens a lot actually. Not to knock the Winooski valley, but whenever I go to Burlington in the winter and drive through there, I'm often underwhelmed by the snowpack along that stretch given the amount of snow that reportedly falls there. Yeah-yeah, I know, low water content. 34F with fog and dew frozen solid on the car this morning. Further up the road and out of the fog it's a heavy frost. RE: Winooski Valley... J.Spins area has a solid snowpack most of the winter...more so than even here in Stowe last winter. His snow depth was close to our ski area base depth at 1500ft. From living in Jonesville I know the snowpack is usually a foot or even two feet less once you go from 500ft to 300ft in elevation towards Richmond. There's a sweet spot in the valley under the spine just above the dam near the 89 rest stop pull-off at the top of the rise. Take Duxbury/River Road or Rt2 next time you drive through that area on the Waterbury Bolton town line..I know from driving through there on the interstate it doesn't do it justice. I89 is on the south facing side of the valley and all you see are south facing hillsides next to the road and wide open wind-swept fields. I used to have 14" of glacier in Jonesville while all along the highway was bare in springtime. But it still is a lot of fluffy snow so snowpack will probably be no greater than what you have in east VT haha. The 159" in Richmond was surprising to me but at the same time not really. Jonesville/Richmond is awful with snow preservation yet it snowed every night when I lived there. You can't group those areas in with above the dam in Waterbury. I remember 4" of fluff sublimating or melting in the sun within hours...it's true broom snow. Then the next night you get 3.5" more and then that settles to a dusting by afternoon and you start over again. Remember we are just speaking in terms of snowfall...inches from the sky not what's left a day later haha. Underhills 223" at 900ft only lasted them 134 days while 150" in Stowe lasted 129 days. That extra 70" did not do much for increasing or prolonging the snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Min 35.5F. First 30s since 10/7. Pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Min 35.5F. First 30s since 10/7. Pathetic. I'm shocked. We actually hit our average low of 33F. Only the 4th time this month and first time since the first week of Oct. Somehow we've dropped below everyone else by a decent bit though the ASOS is still reporting cloudy at all spots. You know its almost Nov when you still drop in temp from 7-8am. MVL....33/32 BTV....40/39 MPV....36/36 SLK....38/37 And I support that snowfall map; it's like it was made for the NNE crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 I'm shocked. We actually hit our average low of 33F. Only the 4th time this month and first time since the first week of Oct. Somehow we've dropped below everyone else by a decent bit though the ASOS is still reporting cloudy at all spots. You know its almost Nov when you still drop in temp from 7-8am. MVL....33/32 BTV....40/39 MPV....36/36 SLK....38/37 And I support that snowfall map; it's like it was made for the NNE crew. I was thinking about this the other day when looking at EC 2m temps. We're finally at the time of the year when the 12z progs are essentially the mins for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Made it down to 32.1/28 here in Rindge this morning, on the campus of Hampshire Country School. Currently 49.6F and OVC, haven't mixed out the inversion well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Despite model differences, it looks like N VT and N NH and western maine are in for their first flakes of the season, with possibly more in the DGEX and GFS come to fruition. Exciting stuff up here in the NEK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Despite model differences, it looks like N VT and N NH and western maine are in for their first flakes of the season, with possibly more in the DGEX and GFS come to fruition. Exciting stuff up here in the NEK! Yeah GFS has been adamant about plowable snowfall now for many runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Yeah GFS has been adamant about plowable snowfall now for many runs. I'll feel more optimistic when the EC/EC ens jump on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 I'll feel more optimistic when the EC/EC ens jump on board. Isn't that usually the case? haha ah the joys of winter model tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 twisterdata is weenie inflated, but here's the 6z GFS Kuchera totals from the Earl Barker site. Obviously take the d4-5 GFS with a grain of salt. http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=GYX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 twisterdata is weenie inflated, but here's the 6z GFS Kuchera totals from the Earl Barker site. Obviously take the d4-5 GFS with a grain of salt. http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=GYX That gives me only 4-5". Twist gave me 10", so I'll hug that like Wiz hugs his Miley pillow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 twisterdata is weenie inflated, but here's the 6z GFS Kuchera totals from the Earl Barker site. Obviously take the d4-5 GFS with a grain of salt. http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=GYX Yeah that looks right verbatim... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Clown maps 12z gfs.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 LOL... 12z GFS for Montpelier, VT 1.1" QPF in a snow-supporting column... that would be one way to start the season off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 LOL... 12z GFS for Montpelier, VT 1.1" QPF in a snow-supporting column... that would be one way to start the season off. I guess I would take it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 I'll feel more optimistic when the EC/EC ens jump on board. Nice bump north on both with the EC ens mean a little better for us.I'm a little more interested now. My first 32F may be accompanied by flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Nice bump north on both with the EC ens mean a little better for us.I'm a little more interested now. My first 32F may be accompanied by flakes. The DEAD bug could be covered with.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Nice bump north on both with the EC ens mean a little better for us.I'm a little more interested now. My first 32F may be accompanied by flakes. Yeah those Wundermaps are definitely a bit further north than 00z last night. One more bump? Or 6 more coming to put it over Detroit? That's the question, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 For craps and giggles... Looks like the 18z GFS flips me to snow around 99hr. QPF beyond that point is about 0.50" which would be interesting. Verbatim it'd probably be a a couple inches of slop. Too early for worrying about details though. Max was 51.7F today...coolest of the season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 For craps and giggles... Looks like the 18z GFS flips me to snow around 99hr. QPF beyond that point is about 0.50" which would be interesting. Verbatim it'd probably be a a couple inches of slop. Too early for worrying about details though. Max was 51.7F today...coolest of the season so far. Someone up here in NNE is going to see some snow out of this system as it stands right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Nice bump north on both with the EC ens mean a little better for us.I'm a little more interested now. My first 32F may be accompanied by flakes. That is the only purpose for 32F in my opinion, why not just cut right to the chase this year. You haven't hit 32 yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 That is the only purpose for 32F in my opinion, why not just cut right to the chase this year. You haven't hit 32 yet? He has not, When he does, His bug will go away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 For craps and giggles... Looks like the 18z GFS flips me to snow around 99hr. QPF beyond that point is about 0.50" which would be interesting. Verbatim it'd probably be a a couple inches of slop. Too early for worrying about details though. Max was 51.7F today...coolest of the season so far. Yeah I'd take any of the past 6 GFS runs, lol. It has been pretty steadfast about that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 He has not, When he does, His bug will go away... 38.2F already tonight. I'm not sure we can stay clear long enough for 32F, but if we can the bug may be toast. MOS has 30F for CON and 34F for LCI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 For craps and giggles... Looks like the 18z GFS flips me to snow around 99hr. QPF beyond that point is about 0.50" which would be interesting. Verbatim it'd probably be a a couple inches of slop. Too early for worrying about details though. Brian, a couple of inches of slop for you could equall 6" of heavy wet clinging snow for me, 25 milesnorth and 600 feet higher than you. My maples are bare but beech and oaks still have not shed their leaves. Oaks are peaking right now at the lower elevations. Got to get them down in the next 3 days or else could be some problems if this comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 BTV not showing much excitement and probably for good reason... way too early. But they are usually a little more in-depth than this. It almost reads like a GYX AFD of old (haha): MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT IN BRINGING IN OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IN ON THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH...SO WILL SEE SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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