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Autumn in NNE


tamarack

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BTV mentioned possible flakes tonight in the 'Dacks....

"As weak cold air advection occurs behind the front...a few snow flakes may make their way to the ground in the higher elevations of northern New York...generally at or above 2000 feet."

And snow showers have been added to our zone forecast for next week...it's not much but it's a start.

"Wednesday Night

Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Lows around 30. Chance of precipitation 30 percent."

Much more seasonal temps too with lows below freezing and highs mid 40s to low 50s later next week...

"Thursday and Thursday Night

Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 50s. Lows in the upper 20s.

Friday

Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s."

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BTV mentioned possible flakes tonight in the 'Dacks....

"As weak cold air advection occurs behind the front...a few snow flakes may make their way to the ground in the higher elevations of northern New York...generally at or above 2000 feet."

And snow showers have been added to our zone forecast for next week...it's not much but it's a start.

"Wednesday Night

Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Lows around 30. Chance of precipitation 30 percent."

Much more seasonal temps too with lows below freezing and highs mid 40s to low 50s later next week...

"Thursday and Thursday Night

Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 50s. Lows in the upper 20s.

Friday

Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s."

finally air with more of a canadian orgin

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59.93" for 10/1/10--10/1/11.

The well is full.

Tallied up Worcester for that period too and they came in at 68.xx"...

So, a very wet past 12 months +.

Indeed it was a wet period – more than two dozen of the Vermont CoCoRaHS sites are 60”+ for precipitation in the 2011 water year, and there’s even one site in Brattleboro that came in with over 80” (see table below). A quick check and sort on the other New England state summaries (they can be downloaded as Excel files and quickly sorted by any parameter) indicates that that is the highest total in all the CoCoRaHS sites in New England. That must be an interesting spot, potentially big on upslope or something, since it’s not at an especially high elevation. Presumably Irene and that late summer period aided in that total, since looking at the individual file for that site indicates that over 26 inches of rain fell there in August and September alone. The next highest 2011 water year total I found in New England from the sorting was 77.7” at the CT site North Granby 1.3 ENE. And, it’s important to note that many of these observers didn’t even report for all 365 days of the period, so some numbers could be a bit low. I grabbed the 2011 water year data for Vermont, sorted it by the “Total Prcp Sum” column, and pasted all the sites with over 60” below. I pulled out a few of the less important columns to make it fit, but you can see that there are some really fun parameters in there like, total days with snow on the ground, days with snowfall, days with precipitation, etc. I think it’s really impressive that CoCoRaHS is doing this for all their thousands and thousands of sites, the reams of data we get for each individual site are really impressive, and far more than even I would take the time to tabulate. A couple of other comments about the Vermont data – with the summary I was finally able to see the total for that Underhill 4.4 NNE site that simply kills it in upslope events, and not surprisingly the snowfall is well past 200”, at 223” for winter 2010-2011. One would suspect that site to receive a lot of fluffy snow, and indeed, although I didn’t go into the seasonal breakdown (one can if they download the individual data file for that site) there were only 68.66” of liquid recorded there for the season. Kudos to the observer there for getting all 365 days of data though, that’s really cool to have for that site. Another interesting note is that the Brattleboro site with the 81.41” of total liquid had only 81.4” of snow for the season, it’s sort of weird to think about getting as many inches of liquid as snowfall, especially up at that level of snowfall. Sorting the Vermont data by total snowfall is really interesting as well; there are quite a good number of sites with over 100” for last season, and even about a dozen in that 150” – 200”+ range. It’s also great that you can see elevation for each site right there. These data will probably be helpful the next time one of those discussions about snowy locations in the state arises. So anyway, anyone can go to the CoCoRaHS website and download any of the state data files, and even the individual site data files if they want, it’s really fun to look around and see what things are like in the other New England states as well. It’s certainly an incredible resource:

http://www.cocorahs....terYearSummary/

CoCoRaHSdata21OCT11A.jpg

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finally air with more of a canadian orgin

Yeah that would be better than this... Frost Advisories for 33-38F temps along the Gulf Coast away from the beaches. Last night they were lower than us and it looks like a few miles inland of the Gulf of Mexico will be colder than us again tonight. We'll have to wait till tomorrow night to rival Florida in the temperature department.

FLZ017-221015- LEON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALLAHASSEE

946 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2011

.REST OF TONIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS 35 TO 40. PATCHY FROST AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.

***

LAMOILLE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE

957 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2011 .

OVERNIGHT...CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SPRINKLES. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY. ISOLATED SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 50. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. .

SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

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Yeah I bet there would be some very impressive numbers Oct-Oct over the past year. JSpin gets every little bit of help from orographics so he will likely be the highest in the state's CoCoRAHS program. Look at a pcpn map of VT and he's right in that MTN axis of big water amounts.

As you can see now from the list I posted above, this site didn’t quite top the list in total precipitation, but it did make it into the top five. It’s the lowest elevation site of the top 30 in that category though – CoCoRaHS puts it down as 458’, presumably from satellite data, but our surveyor’s map of the property puts my equipment location at 495’ and I’m assuming that is more accurate. Either way it’s lower elevation than even that Brattleboro site. Once I read what you wrote above, I sorted the columns to see if this site topped any of the categories, and the only one it did was (and you’ll get a kick out of this) “Days With Snowfall” at 94. That’s a parameter I’d never even though of tabulating in my own data, but it’s pretty neat – that’s over three months of days with at least some snow in the air, more than a quarter of the calendar year. That’s totally consistent with the way you’d comment on how it was always snowing here when you would pass through. It’s always fun to come from town just a couple of miles to the east and watch it suddenly start to snow as we near the house. It’s a good thing that the whole family likes snow.

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Well, I actually saw perfectly clear skies and stars for a while last night. Couldn't believe my eyes!

We dipped down to 38 accordingly but but early this morning the clouds had returned and we're up into the lower 40s.

Anyway, regarding the precip discussion--I'm pretty floored by those numbers, even my own. Again, last October was a wet one, so when framed from 10/1--10/1, boom, hefty amounts are noted--considering last October, a pretty good snow year, some heavy spring rains and flooding (which we didn't get on this side of the state) and of course Irene all add up to an incredible 12 month period.

Wonder if it's one of the wettest 12 month periods ever noted around here? Has to be right up there...

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So anyway, anyone can go to the CoCoRaHS website and download any of the state data files, and even the individual site data files if they want, it’s really fun to look around and see what things are like in the other New England states as well. It’s certainly an incredible resource:

http://www.cocorahs....terYearSummary/

On a CoCoRaHS-related note, I just saw a call for people to join CoCoRaHS on the BTV NWS homepage news ticker, so anyone that enjoys following the weather and collecting data should certainly check it out. It’s nice to know that your data are being put to good use, and you automatically get all the cool analyses that are accessed through the water year summary link above.

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This is absolutely fascinating, J.Spin... I don't even know where to start, haha. I honestly don't care all that much about the liquid precip but love the snowfall data.

I started to get the feeling last winter that our snowfall in Stowe is quite similar to what you experience there in Waterbury, except that we do get slightly less as you seem to benefit also from those events that primarily focus on the western side (low inversion events)... the Winooski Valley allows that moisture to scoot through westward into your area where as we do get blocked by the mountain sometimes.

I've always liked that Stowe 0.2SW station as they are usually spot on with me in terms of snowfall. The elevation there is 732ft and I always assumed that might be somewhere very close to the village center or in the Lower Village where elevations are generally 750ft or less. Either way, it can't be more than a mile or two from me and my altimeter always gives me an elevation right around 785ft so that station is close.

My only problem with the Stowe CoCoRAHS station is that I know there were days in the winter when we got snow, and they didn't report that day. That station is pretty diligent about liquid precip but I noticed with snowfall they definitely missed some snowfall. Either way, they came up with 150.1" and I had estimated around 150" here. I'll admit by the end of the season I wasn't measuring very diligently at home as most of my efforts were going into keeping up with the two snow plots at the mountain. You can also tell that the Stowe observer had significantly less days with snow than Waterbury but days with snow on the ground were almost identical with 132 (J.Spin) vs. 129 (Stowe).

I know that this is beating a dead horse about the upslope region (and many of you can tune this out if you want haha) but there are several relatively low elevation stations with large snowfall totals that you wouldn't expect from places 1000ft or less in elevation...

Station...total snowfall...days with snow on ground...yearly precip

Underhill (936ft)...223"....134 days....68.66"

Waterbury (495ft)...197"...132 days....71.35"

Richmond (733ft)...159.3"....99 days....64.86"

Stowe (732ft)...150.1"....129 days....68.17"

Waterbury (777ft)...144.5"...118 days....65.57"

*This Waterbury station is listed as 4.4 miles NE which is 4.4 miles away from the Spine and the upslope zone. That would explain the much lower snowfall and liquid amounts from J.Spin.

I am amazed at that Underhill station on the west side of Mansfield at under 1,000ft... 223 inches of snow last winter. I guess that answers the question about the western slope getting more than the eastern slope of Mansfield. What is interesting, is that we measured just over 220" at 1,500ft at the base of the ski resort on the east side and they had that amount over 500ft lower on the west side. I bet a lot of that extra snowfall on the west side (70" more than the Stowe village reporter!) was of the very fluffy upslope variety.

Also, in terms of how localized the snowfall can be around here... consider that along RT 108 or The Mountain Road here in Stowe, there is a 70" snowfall gradient from the center of the village (150") to the ski resort base (220"). You'd probably be hard pressed to find many towns with that type of variance along one roadway, and the elevation difference is only about 800ft. It is all about proximity to that Spine of the Greens. The Matterhorn Bar and Grill probably got 190" while Rim Rocks Tavern got 155" and they only differ by about 200 feet in elevation, but are separated by several miles.

I've always thought this area of Vermont here around the northern Spine gets the most snow out of any low elevation stations in New England and I bet it would be hard to find areas that receive this type of 150-225" snowfall on any inhabited spots below 1,000ft.

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59.93" for 10/1/10--10/1/11.

The well is full. ;)

Tallied up Worcester for that period too and they came in at 68.xx"...

So, a very wet past 12 months +.

I am also very impressed with the amount of liquid that has fallen in the past 365 days! I don't collect liquid data so I just go by the Stowe CoCoRAHS observer which appears to be here somewhere in the village at 732ft. I feel my numbers should be relatively close to him/her anyway just based on my estimate of 150" of snow this season (I started rounding a lot at the end of the season, not measuring to the tenth) and they had 150.1".

Liquid here is 68.17" past 12 months. Another interesting thing is that although the Underhill station at 930ft picked up 223" of snowfall last season on the west side of Mansfield, they had 68.66" of precip during the past year. I have no doubt the snowfall difference is caused by a lot more of that 40:1 ratio upslope snow that doesn't add liquid but adds numbers to the snowfall tally.

As far as record keeping goes though, I find it very interesting that over the course of 12 months, two observers on different sides of this mountain are within a half-inch of liquid of each other. That's pretty impressive to have the west slope and the east slope come in with almost identical precip amounts of between 68-69".

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A friend just sent me a picture with a fresh coating of snow on the ground at the Mansfield stake.

It's snowing up there and the Co-Op should come in with at least a trace on the ground and maybe measurable.

This is the first accumulating snow of the season at the top.

Upslope sprinkles at times in the valley but fairly persistent upslope rain/snow showers on the MTN.

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Nice discussion and forecast from BTV today... First time the forecast has had straight chance of snow. I'll eat my hat if we have a day with high in the 30s like the are forecasting:

Wednesday Night: Cloudy, with a low around 33.

Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 45.

Thursday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday: A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Friday Night: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

***************************************

Here are parts of the discussion (upslope near term and storm in long range):

radar continues to show scattered/numerous showers across northern Vermont...associated with lake moisture...orographic lift and 500mb vorticity as seen moving across northern New York in water vapor imagery. This energy/moisture will transit our County Warning Area early this afternoon but most areas will be cool and Cloudy. Mountain summits remaining mainly in the 30s...currently 32 on Whiteface and 34 on Mansfield. Some light icing/flakes possible above 4000 feet. Tonight...tricky cloud cover forecast as backward trajectories coming across and just north of Lake Ontario where clouds persist. Guidance probabilities split between cloudy and clear. Right now leaning toward mainly cloudy as 850 temperatures remain near zero coming across the Lake Ontario/Champlain near 13c. That should be enough to keep boundary layer mixed and moisture flux going and westerly flow will give a little weak upslope too.

THEREAFTER...WHILE TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN...GLOBAL MODELS NOW

SLOWLY COMING INTO BROAD CONSENSUS BY LATE WEEK TIME FRAME

SUGGESTING THAT UPPER FLOW WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO MORE

VIGOROUS ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY

STATES. THIS POTENTIALLY WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE ROBUST

STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST BY LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT

WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY THE FIRST

RESPECTABLE HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW OF THE SEASON. STAY TUNED.

&&

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This is absolutely fascinating, J.Spin... I don't even know where to start, haha. I honestly don't care all that much about the liquid precip but love the snowfall data.

I started to get the feeling last winter that our snowfall in Stowe is quite similar to what you experience there in Waterbury, except that we do get slightly less as you seem to benefit also from those events that primarily focus on the western side (low inversion events)... the Winooski Valley allows that moisture to scoot through westward into your area where as we do get blocked by the mountain sometimes.

I've always liked that Stowe 0.2SW station as they are usually spot on with me in terms of snowfall. The elevation there is 732ft and I always assumed that might be somewhere very close to the village center or in the Lower Village where elevations are generally 750ft or less. Either way, it can't be more than a mile or two from me and my altimeter always gives me an elevation right around 785ft so that station is close.

My only problem with the Stowe CoCoRAHS station is that I know there were days in the winter when we got snow, and they didn't report that day. That station is pretty diligent about liquid precip but I noticed with snowfall they definitely missed some snowfall. Either way, they came up with 150.1" and I had estimated around 150" here. I'll admit by the end of the season I wasn't measuring very diligently at home as most of my efforts were going into keeping up with the two snow plots at the mountain. You can also tell that the Stowe observer had significantly less days with snow than Waterbury but days with snow on the ground were almost identical with 132 (J.Spin) vs. 129 (Stowe).

I know that this is beating a dead horse about the upslope region (and many of you can tune this out if you want haha) but there are several relatively low elevation stations with large snowfall totals that you wouldn't expect from places 1000ft or less in elevation...

Station...total snowfall...days with snow on ground...yearly precip

Underhill (936ft)...223"....134 days....68.66"

Waterbury (495ft)...197"...132 days....71.35"

Richmond (733ft)...159.3"....99 days....64.86"

Stowe (732ft)...150.1"....129 days....68.17"

Waterbury (777ft)...144.5"...118 days....65.57"

*This Waterbury station is listed as 4.4 miles NE which is 4.4 miles away from the Spine and the upslope zone. That would explain the much lower snowfall and liquid amounts from J.Spin.

I am amazed at that Underhill station on the west side of Mansfield at under 1,000ft... 223 inches of snow last winter. I guess that answers the question about the western slope getting more than the eastern slope of Mansfield. What is interesting, is that we measured just over 220" at 1,500ft at the base of the ski resort on the east side and they had that amount over 500ft lower on the west side. I bet a lot of that extra snowfall on the west side (70" more than the Stowe village reporter!) was of the very fluffy upslope variety.

Also, in terms of how localized the snowfall can be around here... consider that along RT 108 or The Mountain Road here in Stowe, there is a 70" snowfall gradient from the center of the village (150") to the ski resort base (220"). You'd probably be hard pressed to find many towns with that type of variance along one roadway, and the elevation difference is only about 800ft. It is all about proximity to that Spine of the Greens. The Matterhorn Bar and Grill probably got 190" while Rim Rocks Tavern got 155" and they only differ by about 200 feet in elevation, but are separated by several miles.

I've always thought this area of Vermont here around the northern Spine gets the most snow out of any low elevation stations in New England and I bet it would be hard to find areas that receive this type of 150-225" snowfall on any inhabited spots below 1,000ft.

This is a great discussion and I agree with everything that you've posted. Having spent time up there I think you're spot on. Since the rise in elevation is very dramatic in such a short distance along the ridge line I'm not surprised to see substantial difference several miles east of the ridge line.

Interesting about Waterbury too and the Winooski Valley... I never thought of it like that but it makes sense.

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I always just round to 4K but it really is more at 3,700 or so. It's not far from the top of Stowe's FourRunner Quad. The weather station and snow bucket for the Co-Op is up at the maintenance building at 3,950ft near/on the ridge.

Next time I'm up there I'm going to search for it!

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This is a great discussion and I agree with everything that you've posted. Having spent time up there I think you're spot on. Since the rise in elevation is very dramatic in such a short distance along the ridge line I'm not surprised to see substantial difference several miles east of the ridge line.

Interesting about Waterbury too and the Winooski Valley... I never thought of it like that but it makes sense.

Yeah there are so many variables but proximity to the spine trumps them all. What's really interesting is during certain events where the inversion is at 4Kft, moisture and snow squeezes through all the gaps to get to the eastern side. That's when we have extremely variable snowfall on the east side. In Stowe the moisture can sneak through Nebraska Notch and Smugglers Notch in the form of plumes not unlike lake effect bands while the peaks and higher ridges block other areas. In the Winooski Valley it's more pronounced with a moisture plume that can stretch to Montpelier at times.

It's like squeezing toothpaste out of the tube... you have all this moisture and it can't go over the inversion so it gets forced through the gaps in the spine. Very interesting to see when we get those events.

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Yeah there are so many variables but proximity to the spine trumps them all. What's really interesting is during certain events where the inversion is at 4Kft, moisture and snow squeezes through all the gaps to get to the eastern side. That's when we have extremely variable snowfall on the east side. In Stowe the moisture can sneak through Nebraska Notch and Smugglers Notch in the form of plumes not unlike lake effect bands while the peaks and higher ridges block other areas. In the Winooski Valley it's more pronounced with a moisture plume that can stretch to Montpelier at times.

It's like squeezing toothpaste out of the tube... you have all this moisture and it can't go over the inversion so it gets forced through the gaps in the spine. Very interesting to see when we get those events.

Those inversion events on the west slope is how they really rock... event west of Underhill toward BTV even.

Makes sense about the Winooski Valley... and yeah I guess I've seen times where Montpelier is 1/4 mile in a plume and areas north and south are being shadowed.

How does Stowe do with easterly/northeasterly flow in the BL?

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Next time I'm up there I'm going to search for it!

Let me know if you come up here skiing. You are in the media industry as an on air Met and I'm in the marketing office...we can probably hook you up with a lift pass and write it as TV media. I'll show you around with the snowstake and our snow study plots along with the amazing glade skiing you need to do to get to/from these spots haha.

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Those inversion events on the west slope is how they really rock... event west of Underhill toward BTV even.

Makes sense about the Winooski Valley... and yeah I guess I've seen times where Montpelier is 1/4 mile in a plume and areas north and south are being shadowed.

How does Stowe do with easterly/northeasterly flow in the BL?

We do good with NE flow into Mansfield and also SE flow... due east flow can shadow town of Stowe via the 3Kft Worcester Range. But Stowe ski resort gets upsloped and does well on any East flow into Mansfield. Luckily town doesn't get too downsloped because there's always another mountain range the air needs to go back over on either the east or western border of town.

And yeah those inversion events are where BTV can get smoked by the orographic blocking...like Jan 2010 when the airport got 34" and here inStowe we got 9" on the east side. But then there are events when the inversion is really high or not there and the east side can jackpot.

Basically I've learned that here in town we don't jackpot like Underhill or JSpin, but we rarely get shut out completely. Thus the 150" of snowfall, which was still higher than a lot of towns in Vermont but wasn't up to the 200" range of some of the most favorable spots...like the west side of town near the ski resort.

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We do good with NE flow into Mansfield and also SE flow... due east flow can shadow town of Stowe via the 3Kft Worcester Range. But Stowe ski resort gets upsloped and does well on any East flow into Mansfield. Luckily town doesn't get too downsloped because there's always another mountain range the air needs to go back over on either the east or western border of town.

And yeah those inversion events are where BTV can get smoked by the orographic blocking...like Jan 2010 when the airport got 34" and here inStowe we got 9" on the east side. But then there are events when the inversion is really high or not there and the east side can jackpot.

Basically I've learned that here in town we don't jackpot like Underhill or JSpin, but we rarely get shut out completely. Thus the 150" of snowfall, which was still higher than a lot of towns in Vermont but wasn't up to the 200" range of some of the most favorable spots...like the west side of town near the ski resort.

Yeah 150" is still damn good... especially for a town where there are a lot of things to do! bars, restaurants, etc

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I'm surprised Waterbury jackpots like Underhill though. Can see how they do better than Stowe village on average... when do they typically jackpot?

Well actually Waterbury village gets about the same as Stowe Village.... Stowe might even get a few more inches. The part of Waterbury that gets crushed is where JSpin lives right under the Spine in the Winooski Valley. That area gets maximized upslope from the mountains and also from low level convergence from surface winds funneling through the spine there. Air literally has no place to go but up and right there between the spine they don't get downsloped from any direction. Thus his average of 170-180" over 5 seasons.

I guess it's technically the same as living on the western side of Stowe near the base of the ski area or towards the west end of the MTN Rd where they get that 175" a year.

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Well actually Waterbury village gets about the same as Stowe Village.... Stowe might even get a few more inches. The part of Waterbury that gets crushed is where JSpin lives right under the Spine in the Winooski Valley. That area gets maximized upslope from the mountains and also from low level convergence from surface winds funneling through the spine there. Air literally has no place to go but up and right there between the spine they don't get downsloped from any direction. Thus his average of 170-180" over 5 seasons.

I guess it's technically the same as living on the western side of Stowe near the base of the ski area or towards the west end of the MTN Rd where they get that 175" a year.

Gotcha. Yeah that makes a lot of sense. I was trying to visualize how Waterbury center got more but I see how the other areas get crushed.

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Let me know if you come up here skiing.  You are in the media industry as an on air Met and I'm in the marketing office...we can probably hook you up with a lift pass and write it as TV media.   I'll show you around with the snowstake and our snow study plots along with the amazing glade skiing you need to do to get to/from these spots haha.

Congrats on #2 in the East per Ski Magazine (just got it today)

Soon you will catch up to Wachusett

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18z GFS is a solid snowstorm for NNE especially the higher terrain... I wish I could lock that in.

Over 1" total QPF as snow across northern VT... even the valleys would get advisory to maybe low end warning. Above 1,000ft gets smoked with 10". This is as far north as the H85 line gets.

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