Lava Rock Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Mannix was way off in his prediction of 2-3" here. Only recorded 0.60". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 I think this is normally my favorite time of year. Reasonable day temps, cold nights, fall colors, apples, hiking without bugs...october is pretty awesome. Of course the year I move to enjoy it all, a classic october eludes me. Hopefully the same can't be said about winter. In other news I'ce got a great northern new england halloween costume lined up. I'm going as a leaf peeper. Ha that's awesome! I've never heard of that one though there's usually some folks at the bar as tourists. And if there's no snow this time of year I'd rather skip ahead to Thanksgiving...I'm burnt out of hiking by now and am itching to ski so bad. I got 7 days in last October with Mani's record snow month. This year might very well be a shutout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Mannix was way off in his prediction of 2-3" here. Only recorded 0.60". Mannix needed to be about 50 miles offshore, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Another murky morn out there, ho-hum. Gotta be one of the worst falls that I can recall. Mild this morning at 51F and only 0.12" of rain yesterday. Mostly showery and drizzly in nature, wide right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Pouring here now.. 57F after a morning temp of 51F. BTV torched up to 68F at 11am! It is another world out there in the CPV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Pouring here now.. 57F after a morning temp of 51F. BTV torched up to 68F at 11am! It is another world out there in the CPV. About the same. We've been waffling around 57-58 here and I saw 61 down in Fairlee, VT just a little while ago on the truck thermo. Had some showers and brief downpours, just drizzle now. That's the word for the fall, here at least: drizzle. If we cut down all the trees, we'd turn into the Scottish Highlands in no time if this is our new weather. I've always been cautious about the 10,000 lb gorilla but I'm staring to wonder.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 About the same. We've been waffling around 57-58 here and I saw 61 down in Fairlee, VT just a little while ago on the truck thermo. Had some showers and brief downpours, just drizzle now. That's the word for the fall, here at least: drizzle. If we cut down all the trees, we'd turn into the Scottish Highlands in no time if this is our new weather. I've always been cautious about the 10,000 lb gorilla but I'm staring to wonder.... Haha yeah this has been a record wet year...no reason for it to stop now. 58F here now, maybe we hit 60? I'm sure we just got more rain in 20 minutes than we did all of last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 That does sound like an interesting comparison to make and I'm definitely willing to give it a shot.. would I have to buy equipment? You might have to get a couple of things, but you could already have what you need, it just depends what you’ve got around. For a snowboard, all you need is piece of plywood or whatever – light color is nice for minimizing heating effects, so one can paint a board if desired. For getting cores off the board I just use one of those Adjust-A-Cup-style measuring cups that we had around in the kitchen – a couple of pictures are below: I like the Adjust-A-Cup as a tool because it lets me pop out the snow core easily, and you can get cores from small amounts of snow because you can use the inner cylinder to support very thin cores. Also, I can use the inner cylinder of the Adjust-A-Cup to compress the core down into a nice tight hockey puck for transfer and melting. But, you can essentially use any hollow cylinder to get snow cores (even a toilet paper roll if you had to) as long as you have an accurate measurement of the inner diameter. You just pop out the core of snow, melt it down, and measure the volume of the liquid. The only thing that might not be lying around the house would be something that can measure the liquid down to a tenth of a milliliter - I have access to tons of that stuff in my lab, but kitchen stores probably have measurement devices that can measure those amounts. I melt my snow cores down in a round-bottom cup in the microwave and then measure the volume, but you can also just let it sit in a warm room or add a known amount of hot water. The final key is just doing out the math so that you know the area of your cylinder, then you can relate the liquid back to your core – I’ve got details on my snowfall page. You really only have to do the calculation once, then just set up a spreadsheet and it will calculate everything for you. An alternative for coring, which isn’t free unless you have one, but is still pretty inexpensive, and is probably a good investment anyway if you want to be able to follow and document all types of precipitation – is to get one of those CoCoRaHS-style Rain Gauges. You can probably get one for around $25 online, and they are all calibrated and set up for coring. They talk about how to use it for coring on the Cooperative Observer Program Snow Measurement Guidelines page: http://www.nws.noaa....op/snowguid.htm You should check out that page anyway since they describe how to do snow collection, cores, etc. You’ll note that on that page they indicate how collecting snow in a gauge can be difficult because it is affected by wind. Indeed I have found that this is quite true, even in my very sheltered location, and I talk about it and have a picture showing some of the issues on my snowfall page. Stick to the snowboard for snow collection and use the gauge for rain or anything that is too liquid for the board to catch. Hopefully liquid precipitation will be pretty minimal in a Rangeley winter, but even at elevation in NNE, rain can occasionally happen in midwinter, and certainly in the fall and spring. I’ve got a lot more detail about my methods of snowfall collection and analysis on my snowfall page, and if you decide you want to set something up, just let me know if you have any questions, or I’m sure others on the board would be happy to help: http://jandeproductions.com/snowfall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 71 F now at BTV and mostly sunny. Currently 60.4F here in Stowe though MVL is showing 65F. Mostly cloudy here and it would be nice to see that Champlain Valley sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 54F and cloudy. Base of the clouds has been right at my house at 1100 feet all day. Sometimes I can see 30 miles and sometime 1/4 mile. Couple hundred feet make all the difference. In the winter I would be talking about how well my location holds onto the cold air. Its doing so very well today. Hoping to break out soon to see some sun before 6pm sunset. November 6 is the first day of standard time making for darkness shortly after 5pm. Jealous of the 60's and sun to my south. .70" was the rainfall total from the past storm. Gene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 20, 2011 Author Share Posted October 20, 2011 Still dripping and mid-upper 50s here in AUG, though I see that SFM was partly sunny at 3 PM. Had 0.53" IMBY 4P-7A, but likely no more than a tenth or two since. That's fine - I'm up around 5" for Oct and the swamps are full, don't need any more precip until it comes down frozen (wishcasting.) 7-day forecast doesn't get the foothills below mid 30s, while my 13-yr avg is down to 30 by next week. The cold air (meaning, a bit subnormal) keeps hanging out there at day 10 on gfs, backing away with each new run just like the first cold of the season always seems to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Thanks J Spin.. I have bookmarked that and will be taking getting prepared over the next few weeks. Should be able to provide some good observations this winter. I am thinking I may move up a little earlier than necessary to settle in, do some hiking and of course to make sure I don't miss out on any of the snow obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 71 F now at BTV and mostly sunny. Currently 60.4F here in Stowe though MVL is showing 65F. Mostly cloudy here and it would be nice to see that Champlain Valley sun. 1,728 miles to your south, I'm enjoying air that's only 6 degrees warmer. anyways Key West has gotten 15.21" of rain over the past few days. This place looks like Katrina just hit. Landing at the airport was like a morbidly obese guy doing a bellyflop into a kiddie pool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 We just had some very heavy rain move through here... no thunder but man did it rain hard. Pretty torrential stuff here at my place just to the west of the marker on the radar. MVL reporting RN+ now, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 7-day forecast doesn't get the foothills below mid 30s, while my 13-yr avg is down to 30 by next week. The cold air (meaning, a bit subnormal) keeps hanging out there at day 10 on gfs, backing away with each new run just like the first cold of the season always seems to do. Yeah I think it is impressive that we might go through most of this month and only hit our average low 3 times. Like you, the forecast for the next 7 days does not feature a "normal" low for this time of year. Late in the period there are some "mid-30s" but by then our low is 31-32F. Today's average was 34F and it was 51F this morning. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Roger Hill hasn’t mentioned much in the way of potential snow recently, but this morning he said to keep an eye out for the end of next week and the Halloween period – not sure if those two periods blend together or are discrete windows, but I’m sure it will be elaborated here as folks look into the guidance. I can see some discussion already in the SNE thread, and Dendrite put up maps for the 28th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Roger Hill hasn’t mentioned much in the way of potential snow recently, but this morning he said to keep an eye out for the end of next week and the Halloween period – not sure if those two periods blend together or are discrete windows, but I’m sure it will be elaborated here as folks look into the guidance. I can see some discussion already in the SNE thread, and Dendrite put up maps for the 28th. Models are hitting the end of next week for a widespread snow event, Definatly something to watch.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Nine straight days with a trace of precip or more and 16 out of 21 so far for the month. 45.64" year to date with over two months to go. 48.66" last year Where's everyone else at? Gonna make 50"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Biggest temperature anomalies this month will be across NNE it appears... most VT stations are in the +4F to +5F range now. Overnight lows have been killing NNE and last night as no exception. While parts of CNE/SNE dropped down to near 40F under clearing skies, NNE spots remained in the mid to upper 40s under the NW cyclonic flow clouds. Another morning across NNE where most spots are 10-15F warmer than where they should be. Clouds, light breeze out of the WNW, and sprinkles here this morning. I'll bet we see upslope drizzle or light showers off and on for the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Models are hitting the end of next week for a widespread snow event, Definatly something to watch.. Yeah its been so boring lately its hard not to get sucked in... but still its hard to get excited for day 7 in October. My gut feeling says this ends up just a shade too far west and the snow ends up from the Catskills to Adirondacks in NY. We've had some decent looking day 7 periods so far this October, but it seems to verify slightly warmer and further west than it was at Day 7-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Soon enough... I'm bummed with missed the foliage and snow opportunities this year... this was October 1st a couple years back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 21, 2011 Author Share Posted October 21, 2011 Nine straight days with a trace of precip or more and 16 out of 21 so far for the month. 45.64" year to date with over two months to go. 48.66" last year Where's everyone else at? Gonna make 50"? Just over 46" so far. Since my driest Nov-Dec was 4.68" in 2001, driest since then about 8.4" and avg 9.2", I think 50"+ is a given. Last year's total was 49.06". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Yeah its been so boring lately its hard not to get sucked in... but still its hard to get excited for day 7 in October. My gut feeling says this ends up just a shade too far west and the snow ends up from the Catskills to Adirondacks in NY. We've had some decent looking day 7 periods so far this October, but it seems to verify slightly warmer and further west than it was at Day 7-10. Chances are slim outside of the highest elevations probably, But at least its better tracking this then the boring pattern we have been in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 45.64" year to date with over two months to go. 48.66" last yearWhere's everyone else at? Gonna make 50"? I'd definitely say that our location will reach 50" of liquid for the 2011 calendar year, adding in this morning’s data, the total is currently at 56.66”. With a couple of months to go, it would seem that reaching 60” of liquid isn’t out of the question. I stopped in at the BTV NWS site, and as of yesterday’s data, BTV was at 46.86” and MPV was at 49.01”. On a related note, the CoCoRaHS water year starts on Oct 1, so they gave us our preliminary water year summaries a couple weeks ago, and our site received 71.35” of liquid for the 2011 water year. They’re having us check our data and correct any errors, then they’ll run their reporting software again at the end of the month. I’ll post some of the summary data when that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 It’s too warm out there right now for upslope snow (real time Mansfield temperature at 3,950’ says 38 F), but with what I’m seeing from my window here at UVM, I could easily be fooled if I didn’t know the temperatures. There is a nice wall of precipitation crashing out in front of Mount Mansfield and it’s not nearly as gray as many rain showers. Hopefully it’s a view that we’ll see a lot of in the coming months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 On a related note, the CoCoRaHS water year starts on Oct 1, so they gave us our preliminary water year summaries a couple weeks ago, and our site received 71.35” of liquid for the 2011 water year. They’re having us check our data and correct any errors, then they’ll run their reporting software again at the end of the month. I’ll post some of the summary data when that happens. It'll be interesting to see if anyone is even remotely close to this number. Never seen such a thing in Vermont outside of mountain elevations. Consider that Burlington's wettest calander year on record is 1998, coming in at 50.42" Some other annual precip records across VT, alas no years: Morrisville: 49.12" Montpelier: 48.49" Waitsfield: 63.46" Brookfield: 56.76" South Lincoln: 60.42" Essex: 51.68" Chelsea: 52.53" But, October last year was very wet. I had over 10" here...though November and December were more normal. So, an October to October calander apparently put up some impressive numbers. I'll tally up and see what I've got for that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 I'll tally up and see what I've got for that time period. 59.93" for 10/1/10--10/1/11. The well is full. Tallied up Worcester for that period too and they came in at 68.xx"... So, a very wet past 12 months +. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Gray: First time they've mentioned snow this year besides at 3K+ I think. LOW PRESSURE RACES EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH TRAILINGCOLD FRONT TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLYFRIDAY. A SERIES OF LOWS WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAG PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTOTHE AREA BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. MODELS SUGGEST THE COLUMN MAY COOLSUFFICIENTLY FOR A MIX WITH WET SNOW AT TIMES AWAY FROM THE COASTWITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY LATEIN THE PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 59.93" for 10/1/10--10/1/11. The well is full. Tallied up Worcester for that period too and they came in at 68.xx"... So, a very wet past 12 months +. Yeah I bet there would be some very impressive numbers Oct-Oct over the past year. JSpin gets every little bit of help from orographics so he will likely be the highest in the state's CoCoRAHS program. Look at a pcpn map of VT and he's right in that MTN axis of big water amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Upslope rain showers and drizzle this afternoon and evening here...this was supposed to be upslope snow if last weeks day 7 progs verified haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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