Autumn in NNE

[dendrite]

Max/Min of 61/40 today. It'll be interesting to see how much rain we get over the coming days. The models are split over how much rain CNE/NNE sees. The EC/EC ens have 1"+ for SE NH which is usually a good bet, but the 18z GFS really pushed the best forcing/rain OTS. I think I'll stick with the NAM/EC/SREF combo on this.

[powderfreak]

Max of 54 with a min of 45... Actually a +4 for the day but a below normal high which was a nice change of pace.

Not expecting much rain at all.

[wxeyeNH]

The current temperature regime is driving me crazy since I heat by wood. Its too warm to run the stove full out but to cool to not run any heat at all. I have been just throwing in junk small stuff but it really builds up the kreasole in the chimney. In winter I just run in continually but with starting and stopping I have to start with kindling and from scratch!

[tamarack]

I don't think the aspect of the trails matters as much as the location of the actual mountain.

You would know better than I do, as my 385' foothills location is in more of a downslope location, except at CAD time. In winter, Gray AFDs have sometimes referred to NW aspects as "favored upslope locations" and I thoughtlessly parroted that line, but maybe we'll learn more this winter from Skier. As for snow at 2,000', there's a co-op observer at Diamond Pond, NH at something like 2100', and that location's 12-13 yr records show about 220" per winter. (And I have no idea what their aspect might be.)

Edit: Records back thru 12/97, at 2,200' elev. Avg winter 224.4", with tops 293.6" in 00-01 and lowest 181.7" (that's a lowest?) in 09-10. They had 108.5" in 12/03.

[dryslot]

I thinks its great that we will have someone here in that area of the state that will be able to report snow totals, I know that there is usually a healthy snowpack as i travel there quite often, I have seen depths well over 6' in those areas and that its is a decent upslope area as well.

[dendrite]

there's a co-op observer at Diamond Pond, NH at something like 2100', and that location's 12-13 yr records show about 220" per winter. (And I have no idea what their aspect might be.)

http://maps.google.com/maps?q=diamond+pond,+nh&hl=en&ll=44.957024,-71.307793&spn=0.123903,0.351562&safe=off&hnear=Diamond+Pond&t=p&z=12&vpsrc=6

Looks like a nice mtn valley location.

[HoarfrostHubb]

The current temperature regime is driving me crazy since I heat by wood. Its too warm to run the stove full out but to cool to not run any heat at all. I have been just throwing in junk small stuff but it really builds up the kreasole in the chimney. In winter I just run in continually but with starting and stopping I have to start with kindling and from scratch!

Someday I might invest in a wood furnace. Those are keen

[powderfreak]

http://maps.google.c...=p&z=12&vpsrc=6

Looks like a nice mtn valley location.

Jesus H... that is an absolutely disgusting location (in a good way) for heavy, heavy snowfall and snowpack. 220" average per season looks about right for that location at 2,000ft. Probably exactly the same as Bolton, VT at 2,000ft here on the Spine of the Greens. That's about as prime an upslope spot as any in New Hampshire.

Check out that rise of 3000ft+ terrain immediately SE of Diamond Pond... any NW flow that hits Rangley has to go over Diamond Pond and that terrain first. Its amazing to me that 3000ft+ terrain in that area is really only 1,000ft above the "valley" floors but I'm sure that's more than enough to create solid uplift. But that area of terrain SE of Diamond Pond is near perfect for moist, cyclonic NW flow with a deep low in the Maritimes. Man they must get crushed with terrain enhancement during CCB or deformation bands, too.

I would think that area of mountains SE of Diamond Pond at 3,000ft+ most likely averages near 300" and is very similar to the highest elevations of the northern Greens. And with much better snow retention.

[mreaves]

You would know better than I do, as my 385' foothills location is in more of a downslope location, except at CAD time. In winter, Gray AFDs have sometimes referred to NW aspects as "favored upslope locations" and I thoughtlessly parroted that line, but maybe we'll learn more this winter from Skier. As for snow at 2,000', there's a co-op observer at Diamond Pond, NH at something like 2100', and that location's 12-13 yr records show about 220" per winter. (And I have no idea what their aspect might be.)

Diamond Pond gets absolutely crushed with snow. I went to the annual Snodeeo at Coleman State Park there in March 2006 (I think), an absolute horrible year for snow. There was still a ton on the ground there. It is a snowmobiling mecca, the local club has a clubhouse with their own gas pumps there. Absolutely beautiful location, between Colebrook NH and the Balsams/Dixville Notch.

[powderfreak]

In winter, Gray AFDs have sometimes referred to NW aspects as "favored upslope locations" and I thoughtlessly parroted that line, but maybe we'll learn more this winter from Skier.

Yeah I understand what you mean... BTV always refers to it as the NW facing slopes, too. Given that our mountains really aren't that large enough to actually cause a rain-shadow on the otherside of a single mountain (you usually have to go a several miles downstream for downsloping to start to take effect), I always look at their statements of "NW slopes" in the context of the larger scale geography of the region. For example, all of Vermont outside of the Champlain Valley is rather hilly or mountainous. I look at it more as the NW periphery of the general mountainous area (Appalachians)...ie it could contain several mountains deep to the SE of the initial area of uplift but its still on the NW side of the general mountain chain. Then there are the mountains that are located more on the SE side of the general Appalachian chain that do not see upslope because the moisture has already been spent. For example the NW facing slope of 3,000ft+ Ascutney Mountain (near the CT River Valley and NH border) does not see upslope like say the SE facing slope of Belvidere Mountain on the northern Spine.

I am not sure if that makes any sense... but looking at a topographic map there are three noticeable axis in the shaded relief where upslope is most likely. I am very much looking forward to Skier's observations this winter. That has been an area we've been missing on this board for a while.

[Allenson]

That's why J.Spin and I will often observe that it is snowing at a pretty good clip but with stars in the sky overhead

We get that a fair bit here too. Star-snow I call it. Always a very cool event to see...and just thinking about it now is getting me fired up for winter.

Max/Min of 61/40 today. It'll be interesting to see how much rain we get over the coming days. The models are split over how much rain CNE/NNE sees. The EC/EC ens have 1"+ for SE NH which is usually a good bet, but the 18z GFS really pushed the best forcing/rain OTS. I think I'll stick with the NAM/EC/SREF combo on this.

Yeah, I've been picking up on this idea myself. Looks like a heavy batch to the east and one to the west. We really don't need another 2" soaker here, so I can't say I'm heartbroken if one is wide-right and the other, wide-left.

The current temperature regime is driving me crazy since I heat by wood. Its too warm to run the stove full out but to cool to not run any heat at all. I have been just throwing in junk small stuff but it really builds up the kreasole in the chimney. In winter I just run in continually but with starting and stopping I have to start with kindling and from scratch!

Ha-ha, I hear ya man. I'm in the exact same boat. Basically I get the stove fired up every evening when I get home from work, stoke it up some before bed and just let it run overnight. There's usually a little warmth coming from it in the morning still, but I don't bother firing it again. Been burning junky wood too--poplar, some old elm I cut at a friend's place (horrible to split) and quite a bit of limb wood from all of our blowdowns. It's easy to overheat though, yes.

It's definitely kindling time of year...as it is in the spring too. After it's been dry for a few days (heh), I like to go into the woods and break up a wheelbarrow or two full of sticks--maple, ash, birch--and toss it in the woodshed, ready to burn. A good supply of newspaper on hand is also key.

[dendrite]

47F with some -SHRA. I suppose getting rain with 40s is some progress.

[loafnut]

I am not sure if that makes any sense... but looking at a topographic map there are three noticeable axis in the shaded relief where upslope is most likely. I am very much looking forward to Skier's observations this winter. That has been an area we've been missing on this board for a while.

Any chance you can extend that map farther northeast into maine? I've been curious for awhile where would get a lot of snow in the area between Rangeley, Jackman, canadian border and Mount Katahdin, but the mountain ridgelines are not so clear like the green mountain spine farther in that direction. Plus, there are few observers with any elevation in that region.

[dryslot]

Any chance you can extend that map farther northeast into maine? I've been curious for awhile where would get a lot of snow in the area between Rangeley, Jackman, canadian border and Mount Katahdin, but the mountain ridgelines are not so clear like the green mountain spine farther in that direction. Plus, there are few observers with any elevation in that region.

If you back to the top of this page, Dendrite has the link to the google map that you can open and pick a location to look at..

[J.Spin]

Ski instructor.. should be a good time.. from what I can tell the town is very nice in winter and still fairly active because of the ski mountain and other outdoor recreation. The ski instructors seem like a fun group.. 8 full timers 50+ part timers for the busiest weekend/holiday periods. Plus copious snow. I'm going to make an effort to keep good records like J Spin and powderfreak do especially if this ends up being a big winter. It can get tiresome with all the 1 and 2" events every day but on the other hand I feel like that much snow needs documentation especially if I could manage 150"+. What do you think the odds of cracking 200" are at 2000' in a Nina?

That's awesome skier, Rangeley, Maine plus 2,000' elevation has got to be ridiculous in terms of snowfall, and especially snowpack. If you get those daily doses of upslope snow on top of the synoptic systems like we do here in the Greens, I have to think there is a shot at 200”. I sure hope you have a chance to document your snowfall, and your liquid equivalent if possible.

This is going to be a sweet winter on this board with observations now that we have someone in that western ME mountain area. I've always been curious how they do with upslope snow over there? I'm assuming they'll get the daily 1-3" fluff snowfalls that the Greens often get? You're going to destroy me in snowpack though at my place in town. It will be very fun to see how your elevation does in terms of snowpack with our snow stake at the base of Mansfield. That snow board and snowstake is located right at 1,550ft and its checked at least twice a day... so hopefully we can compare the difference in snowfall and snowpack at 1,500ft+ at Stowe and in Rangley; two very snowy spots. My bet will be that you will have a deeper snowpack than the base of Mansfield but we'll get more actual inches. The NWS is giving us tools to measure the water content of the snowpack so that would also be a very interesting comparison; to see if Rangley at 1,500-2,000ft gets less snowfall but more water. This will definitely give some insight into the differences between the NH/ME mountains and the upslope zone of the Greens (and if the snow is actually as fluffy as I think it is).

And regarding records... it is a LOT of fun to look back over your observations and records after the fact. But it does get a bit tiresome when you get a week straight of 1/2" snows every night. By February and March I find myself not finding the motivation to go out and measure all those snow showers/squalls that leave less than 1". But they do add up when you think we probably have 30+ days during the winter when greater than .1" falls but less than 1.0".

I’ve got the same impression as Powderfreak with regard to the Vermont snowfall vs. Maine liquid equivalent, so it would be really nice to have some hard data on that. Since Powderfreak is going to be collecting liquid equivalent data this season at his plot, it’s a great chance for comparative analyses. Like he says though, keeping up the motivation for rigorous/fastidious observations throughout the entire winter can be tough. My advice is to try to make it as easy as possible on yourself – you may have to start out with multiple snowboards until you learn the wind and snow deposition patterns for your location, but finding that one sheltered, reliable, representative, convenient spot is key in my mind. Having to run around and check, clear, and reset 5 or even 3 snowboards at every collection interval can be a lot of work, not to mention getting samples for liquid equivalent. In especially windy events you may still want to throw out a couple of additional boards as backup/confirmation, but I think having that one “go to” spot is especially important to reduce workload in the mountains/upslope country; depending on your collection interval, it can mean 100-200 rounds of analyses if your snowfall is as frequent as what Powderfreak and I have observed around here along the spine of the Northern Greens. I’m happy (and I suspect Powderfreak is as well) to help if you have questions about methods. I know that Dendrite also does core analyses, and was helpful when I was first learning, so he’s a resource as well.

Rangeley is kind of in the middle of the mountains. It gets decent upslope snow. Saddleback is the first 4000 foot peak from the canadian border, so does quite well with upslope most years.

The real ideal area is the mountains on either side of Route 27 almost on the Canadian border, near those two little loops that the border makes in far NW maine. When I have driven through there it seems like it is always snowing, even when sunny elsewhere. The snowbanks get massive and the NOAA snow depth/snow water content maps always higher there than anywhere else. These are all usually good signs of an upslope favored area.

I took a look in that area on Google Earth, and the first place I found was “Snow Mountain”, certainly a suggestive name. It tops out around 4,000’, so based on your comments one could imagine it gets hit pretty hard with snow.

[dryslot]

A brief shower just came thru out ahead of the main area of precip to the south

[tamarack]

Diamond Pond gets absolutely crushed with snow. I went to the annual Snodeeo at Coleman State Park there in March 2006 (I think), an absolute horrible year for snow. There was still a ton on the ground there. It is a snowmobiling mecca, the local club has a clubhouse with their own gas pumps there. Absolutely beautiful location, between Colebrook NH and the Balsams/Dixville Notch.

March 2006 is their worst ever month DJFM, with just 9.5", and my edit above notes 05-06 as their worst winter - only 15' snow.

Snow Mt looks well named, but I'd look north of Chain-of-Ponds to the Kibby range for the jackpot. I've talked with folks working on the windpower project there, and their stories are awesome.

Fall woodburning - Always match- and kindling intensive. I'm also using popple and elm at the moment, with the good stuff coming on line next month.

[dryslot]

March 2006 is their worst ever month DJFM, with just 9.5", and my edit above notes 05-06 as their worst winter - only 15' snow.

Snow Mt looks well named, but I'd look north of Chain-of-Ponds to the Kibby range for the jackpot. I've talked with folks working on the windpower project there, and their stories are awesome.

Fall woodburning - Always match- and kindling intensive. I'm also using popple and elm at the moment, with the good stuff coming on line next month.

Should throw a little box alder in there....lol

[skierinvermont]

I don't think the aspect of the trails matters as much as the location of the actual mountain. Of course the trail aspects matter for snow retention (sunlight issues), but for example Stowe's trails are on the eastern side of Mansfield and get upsloped to death. The eastern mountains aren't high enough to have an immediate rain-shadow on one slope of the mountain vs. the other side, at least that's always been my opinion. Its not like the Cascades where if the trails face NW they actually do get significant more snow than trails on the SE side of a mountain. In fact, in the east I feel like sometimes snowfall is better on the eastern side of the mountain purely because strong 50-60kt H85 winds during big upslope events often carry snow quite a bit further east than even where the clouds or best lift are. That's why J.Spin and I will often observe that it is snowing at a pretty good clip but with stars in the sky overhead and clouds visible upstream over the mountain. Often we'll see squalls explode on the western side of the mountain but then 60mph winds will transport that squall and snow east of the Ridge and out over Stowe where it drops its payload before dissipating further downstream. A similar effect often happens in the summer-time during terrain induced t-storms that fire up over the Green Mtn Spine then they drift eastward out over town.

I've also found that the eastern side of the mountain can be a bit protected from strong WNW winds aloft and that can allow the snow to accumulate much more efficiently. With that said, there are definitely events that will favor the immediate western slope of the actual mountain... but I've never seen the western slope get slammed while the eastern slope gets shut-out. If the inversion level is at ridge-top, then the western slope can see more snow as moisture really has a hard time working over the inversion and ridgeline.

I've definitely observed many of the same things in the mountains.. and personally I agree that the snowfall is just as good if not better on the leeward side within a mile of the ridge line than on the windward western side. These are the crazy things snow lovers think about like what is that 1/4 mile going to do to the snowfall? Pretty cool to see you describe many of the same observations and thoughts I've had... like the snow falling from clear skies in Waitsfield most likely from snow falling over the ridge and then getting blown east. And it's definitely not star-dust as some call it.. these are nights when there is still weak upslope moisture and you can visually see the clouds over the ridge a mile or two to the west and fading out as they pass overhead.

[skierinvermont]

March 2006 is their worst ever month DJFM, with just 9.5", and my edit above notes 05-06 as their worst winter - only 15' snow.

Snow Mt looks well named, but I'd look north of Chain-of-Ponds to the Kibby range for the jackpot. I've talked with folks working on the windpower project there, and their stories are awesome.

Fall woodburning - Always match- and kindling intensive. I'm also using popple and elm at the moment, with the good stuff coming on line next month.

I definitely intend to head up to the Snow mountain area (the northern one.. there's actually a 2nd one 15 miles SW).. that area looks prime. And that summit tower would be a fun climb. Don't know if I'll make it all the way up to the Kibby range though.. that's a drive.

[skierinvermont]

That's awesome skier, Rangeley, Maine plus 2,000' elevation has got to be ridiculous in terms of snowfall, and especially snowpack. If you get those daily doses of upslope snow on top of the synoptic systems like we do here in the Greens, I have to think there is a shot at 200”. I sure hope you have a chance to document your snowfall, and your liquid equivalent if possible.

I’ve got the same impression as Powderfreak with regard to the Vermont snowfall vs. Maine liquid equivalent, so it would be really nice to have some hard data on that. Since Powderfreak is going to be collecting liquid equivalent data this season at his plot, it’s a great chance for comparative analyses. Like he says though, keeping up the motivation for rigorous/fastidious observations throughout the entire winter can be tough. My advice is to try to make it as easy as possible on yourself – you may have to start out with multiple snowboards until you learn the wind and snow deposition patterns for your location, but finding that one sheltered, reliable, representative, convenient spot is key in my mind. Having to run around and check, clear, and reset 5 or even 3 snowboards at every collection interval can be a lot of work, not to mention getting samples for liquid equivalent. In especially windy events you may still want to throw out a couple of additional boards as backup/confirmation, but I think having that one “go to” spot is especially important to reduce workload in the mountains/upslope country; depending on your collection interval, it can mean 100-200 rounds of analyses if your snowfall is as frequent as what Powderfreak and I have observed around here along the spine of the Northern Greens. I’m happy (and I suspect Powderfreak is as well) to help if you have questions about methods. I know that Dendrite also does core analyses, and was helpful when I was first learning, so he’s a resource as well.

I took a look in that area on Google Earth, and the first place I found was “Snow Mountain”, certainly a suggestive name. It tops out around 4,000’, so based on your comments one could imagine it gets hit pretty hard with snow.

That does sound like an interesting comparison to make and I'm definitely willing to give it a shot.. would I have to buy equipment?

[loafnut]

March 2006 is their worst ever month DJFM, with just 9.5", and my edit above notes 05-06 as their worst winter - only 15' snow.

Snow Mt looks well named, but I'd look north of Chain-of-Ponds to the Kibby range for the jackpot. I've talked with folks working on the windpower project there, and their stories are awesome.

Fall woodburning - Always match- and kindling intensive. I'm also using popple and elm at the moment, with the good stuff coming on line next month.

Indeed, Kibby and nearby caribou peak a bit to the west would seem to be jackpots, although according to these graphics, that whole area does well.

Last year

Dec 31

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/Northeast/nsm_depth/201012/nsm_depth_2010123105_Northeast.jpg

March 31

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/Northeast/nsm_depth/201103/nsm_depth_2011033105_Northeast.jpg

April 20

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/Northeast/nsm_depth/201104/nsm_depth_2011042005_Northeast.jpg

[dendrite]

49F and RA. Up to 0.11"

[powderfreak]

51F no rain so far. East wind increasing with a wind advisory in effect...though not expecting high winds. That is reserved for the western slope of the spine that downslopes on a SE flow.

[tamarack]

er

I definitely intend to head up to the Snow mountain area (the northern one.. there's actually a 2nd one 15 miles SW).. that area looks prime. And that summit tower would be a fun climb. Don't know if I'll make it all the way up to the Kibby range though.. that's a drive.

The Cupsuptic/Oxbow Snow Mt might get just as much as the one near C-o-P. That's high plateau country - the lowest spot on Oxbow Twp (where Cupsuptic River leaves the town) is something around 2,400'.

Kibby may involve more miles, but its access, the Gold Brook Road, has been greatly improved as part of bulding those turbines, so I'd expect faster travel. No tower, though.

[powderfreak]

Rain has been falling but it's light. Would be very surprised to see even a quarter inch tonight. 53F

[adk]

I dunno scott...picked up for a bit here in SBTV and that could roll west. As it is though it blows out. Just boring boring weather.

[powderfreak]

I dunno scott...picked up for a bit here in SBTV and that could roll west. As it is though it blows out. Just boring boring weather.

Yeah there is only so long I can fool myself into being interested in temperature departures. This is always the worst time of year...snow is so close but seems to take forever to get here. Once it comes though it makes every little vort max exciting as at least a few flakes always get squeezed out over the spine.

[adk]

Yeah there is only so long I can fool myself into being interested in temperature departures. This is always the worst time of year...snow is so close but seems to take forever to get here. Once it comes though it makes every little vort max exciting as at least a few flakes always get squeezed out over the spine.

I think this is normally my favorite time of year. Reasonable day temps, cold nights, fall colors, apples, hiking without bugs...october is pretty awesome. Of course the year I move to enjoy it all, a classic october eludes me. Hopefully the same can't be said about winter.

In other news I'ce got a great northern new england halloween costume lined up. I'm going as a leaf peeper.

[MaineJayhawk]

A decent amount of rain with this storm ... 1.27" at PWM so far and it was falling at a good clip on the drive in.