Autumn in NNE

[powderfreak]

Today's smoothed 13-yr avg IMBY is 54/33. I've not been particularly near that minimum (couple of 37s, one with a high of 77) since the mid 20s freezes of 10/6&7, and nothing near freezing appears likely in the near future.

Best colors I've seen, and they're nice but ordinary, are along Route 27 in south Belgrade/Sidney/AUG, of all places. N.Maine was past peak with 75% leaf drop last Friday during daylight, and given the leaf swirl as I drove south that evening, it might be 95% now.

I've been looking through the normals today a bit... and in fact, a lot of northern New England in the mountain valleys and interior away from water (like Lake Champlain or the Atlantic coastal plain) should be averaging nightly lows in the low to mid 30s! We haven't been anywhere near that and don't seem to be anytime soon. Basically a very large portion of NNE should be hitting 32-37F every morning now, while it currently seems like we are getting to normal only 10%-20% of the time (if that). Heck even Burlington should be upper 30s or near 40F on a nightly basis now even right next to Lake Champlain with an average low of 39F.

Even more remarkable, is the next time we are forecast to get within 5 degrees of our normal low this time of year is next Sunday morning and Monday morning... with forecast lows of 35F and 36F. And by that time, our average low will be down to 33F so we still probably won't be hitting average.

[borderwx]

Foliage is toast up here. 42F and wet. this will thicken the blood a bit Allenson.

[skierinvermont]

Also, just for the record, the foliage in the Champlain Valley is absolutely atrocious. I've never seen a duller foliage season or anything like it. Addison County was like dull brown, yellow, green, maybe something you could call orange... with most of the leaves just dying and falling off without even getting any color saturation.

My buddy who runs one of the oldest Plant and Tree Nursery in the state of Vermont says this is by far the worst foliage season he can remember in the valley. The difference between the colors we saw in Stowe and what was in the Champlain Valley was absolutely amazing. Its been near-record wet in both areas this year, but maybe the lack of a killing frost/freeze in the Champlain Valley is causing this strung-out foliage season where some trees are bare and others are still green, with just muted dull colors in between. In Stowe they all seemed to change at once... everything happened together but maybe that's because there's slightly less species diversity in the hill towns?

I have no idea but wow was that a big difference from interior Vermont east of the Greens.

Any chance it's related to the wind from Irene.. were the winds stronger in the CPV? I know everybody says it's the wet year but down in CT I noticed that during Irene a lot of the leaves wilted and then started dying off after the storm.

Also I've noticed that the sugar maples have been particularly bad... the red maples and some of the others have been pretty good.

[skierinvermont]

I think I got my first non-mointain frozen precip of the year last night.. I woke up in the middle of the night (not sure what time) and stumbled outside to take a leak and it was definitely precipitating and despite my semi-conscious state I'm pretty sure it was partially frozen. This would be at about 1550' in Rangeley.

[Allenson]

Nice 39F this morning in Stowe... not even close to stuff freezing, haha. Wind never went calm it looks like and we had clouds around most of the night. .

I have to say, I was surprised this morning at several things: 0.32" in the bucket; slept through it, didn't hear it; that it was mostly clear when I got up at 6am and 36F at 6' off the ground, and that there was frozen rain on the grass. After I posted this morning, I took the dawg for a walk in the neighboring field and there was legit frost out there. Mother Nature's a funny ol' gal.

Its been near-record wet in both areas this year, but maybe the lack of a killing frost/freeze in the Champlain Valley is causing this strung-out foliage season where some trees are bare and others are still green, with just muted dull colors in between. In Stowe they all seemed to change at once... everything happened together but maybe that's because there's slightly less species diversity in the hill towns?

I have no idea but wow was that a big difference from interior Vermont east of the Greens.

Our change here was more gradual than it sounds like you saw even in Stowe. But still not a great year. All bare now around the house.

No killing freeze the Champ valley?

Regarding east of the Greens, it's occured to me that there is a divide of sorts between one side and the other beyond the normal observations. That being that east of the spine is more akin to northern/central NH and much of Maine in weather and climate and for one reason or another, seems more insulated and protected from the vagaries, the big fluctuations and trends that can affect so much of the continent, even quite close to here. The Champlain valley by virtue of its shape and geography is more tied to the west-southwest whereas here, we look east. It's a fine line, proverbial hair splitting and I've no hard science to back it up, but something that I've thought about before. So, perhaps there's something to this regarding out more normal than other locales, though still somewhat odd, foliage season.

Foliage is toast up here. 42F and wet. this will thicken the blood a bit Allenson.

LOL, all heartied up now, man. Just let me get the rest of the winter's wood in and the plow harnessed up on the new truck and I'm ready to roll.

[Allenson]

I think I got my first non-mointain frozen precip of the year last night.. I woke up in the middle of the night (not sure what time) and stumbled outside to take a leak and it was definitely precipitating and despite my semi-conscious state I'm pretty sure it was partially frozen. This would be at about 1550' in Rangeley.

Ah, a fellow after my own heart, I see.

Personally I love my deck off of the second floor in the dark hours. No aim needed.

[powderfreak]

Our change here was more gradual than it sounds like you saw even in Stowe. But still not a great year. All bare now around the house.

No killing freeze the Champ valley?

Regarding east of the Greens, it's occured to me that there is a divide of sorts between one side and the other beyond the normal observations. That being that east of the spine is more akin to northern/central NH and much of Maine in weather and climate and for one reason or another, seems more insulated and protected from the vagaries, the big fluctuations and trends that can affect so much of the continent, even quite close to here. The Champlain valley by virtue of its shape and geography is more tied to the west-southwest whereas here, we look east. It's a fine line, proverbial hair splitting and I've no hard science to back it up, but something that I've thought about before. So, perhaps there's something to this regarding out more normal than other locales, though still somewhat odd, foliage season.

Yeah it might have been gradual with a couple species, but I still feel like it all went at once... we did have dull brown, yellow color for a couple of weeks and then had those back-to-back mornings of upper 20s with highs in the 60s to near 70F. After that the color exploded within 72 hours on all tree species. I'm still impressed with how the color was locally... while the difference between that and the Champlain Valley is remarkable.

I took a few pictures of the foliage in the Champlain Valley and should have some time tomorrow to get them online. We can compare hillsides in the CPV with what the color was on hillsides east of the Spine.

I do agree with you that it is a different climate zone east of the Spine. I still find that in Stowe we are certainly more exposed to western influences like the Champlain Valley (more so than your area, the Orange Heights, and eastward) and northern NY. But we still seem to have much more in common with east VT, NH, and ME than we do with points west of the Spine. Living in the Champlain Valley I always thought of it as a continuation of the Hudson Valley where I grew up... its just much further north. If you correct the climate for being so much further north, the same factors such as downsloping, less QPF, and generally warmer climate than everywhere else around it. Both are the Banana Valleys, haha.

With the leaves pretty much on the ground now, its just a waiting game until the snow flies

[Allenson]

I took a few pictures of the foliage in the Champlain Valley and should have some time tomorrow to get them online. We can compare hillsides in the CPV with what the color was on hillsides east of the Spine.

I do agree with you that it is a different climate zone east of the Spine. I still find that in Stowe we are certainly more exposed to western influences like the Champlain Valley (more so than your area, the Orange Heights, and eastward) and northern NY. But we still seem to have much more in common with east VT, NH, and ME than we do with points west of the Spine. Living in the Champlain Valley I always thought of it as a continuation of the Hudson Valley where I grew up... its just much further north. If you correct the climate for being so much further north, the same factors such as downsloping, less QPF, and generally warmer climate than everywhere else around it. Both are the Banana Valleys, haha.

Sounds good man. I took quite a few shots yesterday morning. I'll get them processed today and post any up that are worthwhile.

And yeah, maybe the 'looks east' change doesn't fully take hold till up and over the divide between the Champlain drainage and the Connecticut drainage--which is the Orange Heights and associated highlands.

Cloudy & 43F this morning.

[J.Spin]

I finished up the 2010-2011 Winter Summary for our location in Waterbury. I’ve noted a few of the main results below, and all the rest of the data and various plots can be accessed at the link above for the summary page. I’ve also pasted in the list of storms below for quick reference, with links to the text and any additional sets of associated images. The total snowfall for each event follows in parenthese at the end of the entry.

Accumulating snowfall period: 10/15/10 – 4/23/11

Number of events: 49

Total snowfall: 197.0 inches

Total liquid: 29.64 inches

10/15/2010 Text Pics (0.3”)

10/29/2010 Text (0.7”)

11/08/2010 Text (1.4”)

11/18/2010 Text (0.4”)

11/27/2010 Text (0.6”)

12/02/2010 Text Pics1 Pics2 (23.4”)

12/10/2010 Text Pics (2.1”)

12/12/2010 Text Pics1 Pics2 Pics3 (12.3”)

12/21/2010 Text Pics (4.3”)

12/26/2010 Text Pics1 Pics2 (3.6”)

12/29/2010 Text Pics (0.3”)

01/02/2011 Text (0.1”)

01/04/2011 Text (5.5”)

01/07/2011 Text Pics1 Pics2 Pics3 (18.0”)

01/12/2011 Text Pics1 Pics2 (13.3”)

01/15/2011 Text Pics1 Pics2 Pics3 (4.9”)

01/18/2011 Text Pics (6.5”)

01/21/2011 Text Pics (1.6”)

01/23/2011 Text (0.4”)

01/25/2011 Text (1.3”)

01/27/2011 Text (0.2”)

01/29/2011 Text Pics1 Pics2 (1.4”)

01/30/2011 Text Pics (2.3”)

02/01/2011 Text Pics1 Pics2 (13.4”)

02/05/2011 Text Pics (7.6”)

02/07/2011 Text (0.2”)

02/08/2011 Text (3.6”)

02/10/2011 Text (0.3”)

02/12/2011 Text Pics1 Pics2 (2.5”)

02/14/2011 Text (2.3”)

02/19/2011 Text Pics (1.6”)

02/19/2011 Text Pics (0.1”)

02/21/2011 Text Pics (2.0”)

02/25/2011 Text Pics1 Pics2 Pics3 (10.5”)

02/27/2011 Text Pics (2.6”)

02/28/2011 Text (1.4”)

03/02/2011 Text (0.9”)

03/05/2011 Text Pics1 Pics2 Pics3 Pics4 (25.0”)

03/10/2011 Text Pics (3.7”)

03/13/2011 Text Pics (0.2”)

03/16/2011 Text (0.2”)

03/19/2011 Text Pics (0.3”)

03/21/2011 Text Pics (6.2”)

03/24/2011 Text Pics1 Pics2 Pics3 (2.8”)

03/29/2011 Text (0.3”)

04/01/2011 Text Pics (1.3”)

04/04/2011 Text Pics (2.3”)

04/16/2011 Text (0.6”)

04/23/2011 Text Pics (0.2”)

[adk]

Goddamn this weather is boring.

[powderfreak]

Goddamn this weather is boring.

Haha tell me about it... low of 45F last night. Another +10F on the overnight departure. It will certainly be a shock once we actually get a week or two of normal lows.

[tamarack]

I think I got my first non-mointain frozen precip of the year last night.. I woke up in the middle of the night (not sure what time) and stumbled outside to take a leak and it was definitely precipitating and despite my semi-conscious state I'm pretty sure it was partially frozen. This would be at about 1550' in Rangeley.

Since I had 0.03" at temps 38-40 Monday predawn while nearly 1,200' lower in elevation, I think you could be rigfht.

[skierinvermont]

I found a loft apartment to live in up around 2000' in Rangeley... see you next May when I dig out!

It's either that or some places in town at 1550' ... other things to consider besides elevation but it definitely gets a little consideration in my book

[dryslot]

I found a loft apartment to live in up around 2000' in Rangeley... see you next May when I dig out!

It's either that or some places in town at 1550' ... other things to consider besides elevation but it definitely gets a little consideration in my book

Nice, Should be fun times up there......

[ORH_wxman]

I found a loft apartment to live in up around 2000' in Rangeley... see you next May when I dig out!

It's either that or some places in town at 1550' ... other things to consider besides elevation but it definitely gets a little consideration in my book

That place is about the snowiest around. What you doing in Rangeley for the winter?

[MaineJayhawk]

That place is about the snowiest around. What you doing in Rangeley for the winter?

Most likely a lot of shoveling.

[dryslot]

Most likely a lot of shoveling.

For sure

[skierinvermont]

That place is about the snowiest around. What you doing in Rangeley for the winter?

Ski instructor.. should be a good time.. from what I can tell the town is very nice in winter and still fairly active because of the ski mountain and other outdoor recreation. The ski instructors seem like a fun group.. 8 full timers 50+ part timers for the busiest weekend/holiday periods. Plus copious snow. I'm going to make an effort to keep good records like J Spin and powderfreak do especially if this ends up being a big winter. It can get tiresome with all the 1 and 2" events every day but on the other hand I feel like that much snow needs documentation especially if I could manage 150"+. What do you think the odds of cracking 200" are at 2000' in a Nina?

[CT Rain]

Ski instructor.. should be a good time.. from what I can tell the town is very nice in winter and still fairly active because of the ski mountain and other outdoor recreation. The ski instructors seem like a fun group.. 8 full timers 50+ part timers for the busiest weekend/holiday periods. Plus copious snow. I'm going to make an effort to keep good records like J Spin and powderfreak do especially if this ends up being a big winter. It can get tiresome with all the 1 and 2" events every day but on the other hand I feel like that much snow needs documentation especially if I could manage 150"+. What do you think the odds of cracking 200" are at 2000' in a Nina?

Sugarloaf?

[ORH_wxman]

Sugarloaf?

Saddleback.(I think)

[dryslot]

Saddleback.(I think)

Yes, It is, He will get upsloped to death up there daily, I am in squalls most of the time riding that area..

[skierinvermont]

Saddleback.(I think)

Yep.. I think Saddleback might get slightly more snow because of more exposure especially to the east right off the lake while Sugarloaf is surrounded by other 4000' peaks. They mentioned at the interview that the Sugarloaf PR people have been known to drive over to corroborate the Saddleback measurements because sometimes they're much higher. My guess is that's on certain upslope days maybe with a more easterly flow.

[tamarack]

Yep.. my guess is the upslope at Saddleback is a bit better than Sugarloaf given it's closer to the mountains that run the U.S./Canada border which is probably even better. They mentioned at the interview that the Sugarloaf PR people have been known to drive over to corroborate the Saddleback measurements because sometimes they're much higher. My guess is that's on certain upslope days.

Saddleback's NW exposure (on the ski slopes) should be a lot better for upslope than Sugarloaf, where the trails face mainly east. However, Eustis, just up the street from Sugarloaf, has averaged 126" back through 1984-85, as far back as their continuous records go. During the same time, Rangeley's avg is 120". The Rangeley obs come from elev 1,512', Eustis from 1,260'.

Of course, at 2,000' you can probably add 20% or more to whatever those two places receive. (Maine apparently has no co-op observers - don't know what the ski areas have - anywhere near 2,000', so your obs would be most welcome.)

[Allenson]

Skierinvermont (maine now?) have a good winter up there. Nice area for certain. When I lived over there, I had some friends that ran a farm/greenhouse operation on RT 16 between Rangely & Stratton--Coplin Plantation area. Haven't talked with them in years & not sure if they're still in operation or not though...

Anyway, a few shots showing the state of the foliage here--

Bare trees at the house:

Another example of the bare trees in the frost hollow with foliage still above. The hollow is at about 1200' and the tops of the hills 1500' or so:

And, a little color left along the sun-drenched field's edge:

[powderfreak]

Ski instructor.. should be a good time.. from what I can tell the town is very nice in winter and still fairly active because of the ski mountain and other outdoor recreation. The ski instructors seem like a fun group.. 8 full timers 50+ part timers for the busiest weekend/holiday periods. Plus copious snow. I'm going to make an effort to keep good records like J Spin and powderfreak do especially if this ends up being a big winter. It can get tiresome with all the 1 and 2" events every day but on the other hand I feel like that much snow needs documentation especially if I could manage 150"+. What do you think the odds of cracking 200" are at 2000' in a Nina?

Dude congrats... that's awesome. I love that spirit of just getting up, moving, and going for it if you love snow and want to witness it in all its glory. You get major props in my book for moving up there (I know snow was probably your #1 consideration). You're like me, at that perfect age to do just about anything with very little responsibility... no home, no wife, no children, in your 20s. I could pick up tomorrow and move to Colorado if I wanted to. I like having that freedom.

This is going to be a sweet winter on this board with observations now that we have someone in that western ME mountain area. I've always been curious how they do with upslope snow over there? I'm assuming they'll get the daily 1-3" fluff snowfalls that the Greens often get? You're going to destroy me in snowpack though at my place in town. It will be very fun to see how your elevation does in terms of snowpack with our snow stake at the base of Mansfield. That snow board and snowstake is located right at 1,550ft and its checked at least twice a day... so hopefully we can compare the difference in snowfall and snowpack at 1,500ft+ at Stowe and in Rangley; two very snowy spots. My bet will be that you will have a deeper snowpack than the base of Mansfield but we'll get more actual inches. The NWS is giving us tools to measure the water content of the snowpack so that would also be a very interesting comparison; to see if Rangley at 1,500-2,000ft gets less snowfall but more water. This will definitely give some insight into the differences between the NH/ME mountains and the upslope zone of the Greens (and if the snow is actually as fluffy as I think it is). I'm pumped, haha, I love this stuff.

And regarding records... it is a LOT of fun to look back over your observations and records after the fact. But it does get a bit tiresome when you get a week straight of 1/2" snows every night. By February and March I find myself not finding the motivation to go out and measure all those snow showers/squalls that leave less than 1". But they do add up when you think we probably have 30+ days during the winter when greater than .1" falls but less than 1.0".

Do you have a good digital camera? I hope you do.

[powderfreak]

Yes, It is, He will get upsloped to death up there daily, I am in squalls most of the time riding that area..

Oh nice... so that area does get into the upslope? I'll have to look up the topography... I sort of thought it was on the south/eastern side of the mountains (the downslope side) but I think I'm thinking of Rumford.

[loafnut]

What do you think the odds of cracking 200" are at 2000' in a Nina?

Hard to say. Sugarloaf is slightly favored by el nino, but saddleback gets its snow from a different type of storm. This year? I'll give you a 50% chance of cracking 200 if you are in a decent upslope spot.

[loafnut]

Oh nice... so that area does get into the upslope? I'll have to look up the topography... I sort of thought it was on the south/eastern side of the mountains (the downslope side) but I think I'm thinking of Rumford.

Rangeley is kind of in the middle of the mountains. It gets decent upslope snow. Saddleback is the first 4000 foot peak from the canadian border, so does quite well with upslope most years.

The real ideal area is the mountains on either side of Route 27 almost on the Canadian border, near those two little loops that the border makes in far NW maine. When I have driven through there it seems like it is always snowing, even when sunny elsewhere. The snowbanks get massive and the NOAA snow depth/snow water content maps always higher there than anywhere else. These are all usually good signs of an upslope favored area.

[powderfreak]

Saddleback's NW exposure (on the ski slopes) should be a lot better for upslope than Sugarloaf, where the trails face mainly east. However, Eustis, just up the street from Sugarloaf, has averaged 126" back through 1984-85, as far back as their continuous records go. During the same time, Rangeley's avg is 120". The Rangeley obs come from elev 1,512', Eustis from 1,260'.

Of course, at 2,000' you can probably add 20% or more to whatever those two places receive. (Maine apparently has no co-op observers - don't know what the ski areas have - anywhere near 2,000', so your obs would be most welcome.)

I don't think the aspect of the trails matters as much as the location of the actual mountain. Of course the trail aspects matter for snow retention (sunlight issues), but for example Stowe's trails are on the eastern side of Mansfield and get upsloped to death. The eastern mountains aren't high enough to have an immediate rain-shadow on one slope of the mountain vs. the other side, at least that's always been my opinion. Its not like the Cascades where if the trails face NW they actually do get significant more snow than trails on the SE side of a mountain. In fact, in the east I feel like sometimes snowfall is better on the eastern side of the mountain purely because strong 50-60kt H85 winds during big upslope events often carry snow quite a bit further east than even where the clouds or best lift are. That's why J.Spin and I will often observe that it is snowing at a pretty good clip but with stars in the sky overhead and clouds visible upstream over the mountain. Often we'll see squalls explode on the western side of the mountain but then 60mph winds will transport that squall and snow east of the Ridge and out over Stowe where it drops its payload before dissipating further downstream. A similar effect often happens in the summer-time during terrain induced t-storms that fire up over the Green Mtn Spine then they drift eastward out over town.

I've also found that the eastern side of the mountain can be a bit protected from strong WNW winds aloft and that can allow the snow to accumulate much more efficiently. With that said, there are definitely events that will favor the immediate western slope of the actual mountain... but I've never seen the western slope get slammed while the eastern slope gets shut-out. If the inversion level is at ridge-top, then the western slope can see more snow as moisture really has a hard time working over the inversion and ridgeline.

[powderfreak]

Ski instructor.. should be a good time.. from what I can tell the town is very nice in winter and still fairly active because of the ski mountain and other outdoor recreation. The ski instructors seem like a fun group.. 8 full timers 50+ part timers for the busiest weekend/holiday periods. Plus copious snow. I'm going to make an effort to keep good records like J Spin and powderfreak do especially if this ends up being a big winter. It can get tiresome with all the 1 and 2" events every day but on the other hand I feel like that much snow needs documentation especially if I could manage 150"+. What do you think the odds of cracking 200" are at 2000' in a Nina?

I would have to imagine the odds of that are very good... 200" is a lot of snow, but not at 2,000ft. If you are in the upslope zone, I'd bet you would be like Bolton, VT at 2,100ft at the base of the ski resort (I'm so jealous of my friends who live there) probably averages 225" a year as they average over 300" at the 3,600ft summit. Just take J.Spin's 170" average at 500ft and add 1,500ft up to the Bolton village at 2,100ft literally at the Spine.

I would bet you will come pretty close to 200" if not more at that elevation with upslope... it should be a fun race on here, although I can't beat J.Spin's location (ie. he had 197" last winter at 500ft, I had 150" at 800ft, and 1,550ft at the ski resort had 217" I think it was).