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Autumn in NNE


tamarack

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Hazardous morning of paddling today. Probably not a good sign when you can hear the wind ripping through the trees while eating breakfast at 4:30am. Anywhoo ... got to Long Lake pretty early - had to unload the boat by moonlight - and the water was already pretty choppy. It didn't get any better when the sun rose. lol. I intended to paddle to an island a few miles to the south and then come back, but before I got there the waves were turning into whitecaps and were breaking over my bow. The windgusts were also wreaking havoc with steering. In a nutshell, it was a lesson learned for this rookie.

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Slight chance for some snow showers across the northern Adirondacks and northern Greens tomorrow morning and then again Monday morning... looks like a pretty weak signal but also maybe a light rime frosting way up there around 4,000ft.

Really liking some of the longer term stuff after the mid-month warm up... last week of October could deliver something.

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Both GFS and Euro have a good signal for the first upslope snow threat in the usual spots next Friday. The storm passes to our west but then once the deep trough settles in over the region, there is still leftover synoptic moisture and a good NW flow with 850 temps in the -6C range. Its about a week out, so obviously it can change, but there might finally be some snow on the mountain tops from this if it can work out.

Still there on the 12z GFS today... climo favored wind direction, H85 RH of 90%+, CAA into the terrain... QPF maps are generally useless except to show the classic 0.01"+ signal which is always way underdone. But at least the model knows something should be happening in the upslope areas from NNE back through the NY lake effect areas, and then all the way south down the Apps into the southern Appalachians.

The only thing is I'd like to see those H85 wind speeds come up just a little bit... between 30-40kts seems to be optimal.

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Hazardous morning of paddling today. Probably not a good sign when you can hear the wind ripping through the trees while eating breakfast at 4:30am. Anywhoo ... got to Long Lake pretty early - had to unload the boat by moonlight - and the water was already pretty choppy. It didn't get any better when the sun rose. lol. I intended to paddle to an island a few miles to the south and then come back, but before I got there the waves were turning into whitecaps and were breaking over my bow. The windgusts were also wreaking havoc with steering. In a nutshell, it was a lesson learned for this rookie.

Reminds me of the time I got flipped paddling a skinny little racing kayak out to an island on Rangeley lake in a windstorm. Boy is that water cold even in summer.

From now on in weather like that I use my big fat grandma boats which can handle 5' breakers no problem.

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Classic fall bluster today, and the hardwoods are nearly bare except for the one large oak (and my much smaller apples) which retain about half their leaves. Challenging drive home from N.Maine last evening, as bouts of sheeted +RA with embedded leaf flurries added 45 minutes to the usual 4-hr trip (215 miles) Ashland to New Sharon. Got home a bit before 11, after we snuck a damp but full day of check-cruising the forest inventory fieldwork west of PQI - light rain during the day but serious stuff arrived about 30 minutes after we cleared the woods. Several flashes and loud thunder just before midnight, acompanying the final burst of heavy rain. Total precip Thurs-Fri was 1.65".

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Brief heavy shower just moved over me intensifying as it moved NE. Several claps of thunder with wind gusts to 40mph. Temp fell 7F. Grabbed the camera just as the storm passed to catch a double rainbow and some other interesting effects. You can clearly see the precip is falling as snow out of the clouds and where it changes to rain. The snow (looks like virga) is casting a shadow from the low sun angle on to the top of the rainbow. I have never seen that before!

post-268-0-26466600-1318709267.jpg

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First mention of snow in our zone forecast for Lamoille County... Of course there has been snow mentioned for high elevation gridpoints but not for the lower elevations the zones forecast for. BTV keying on the upslope regions late inthe forecast period.

CONFINE HIGHEST POPS TO THE NW UPSLOPE REGIONS ON THURS

Thursday Night

Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

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Brief heavy shower just moved over me intensifying as it moved NE. Several claps of thunder with wind gusts to 40mph. Temp fell 7F. Grabbed the camera just as the storm passed to catch a double rainbow and some other interesting effects. You can clearly see the precip is falling as snow out of the clouds and where it changes to rain. The snow (looks like virga) is casting a shadow from the low sun angle on to the top of the rainbow. I have never seen that before!

That is sweet!

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Pretty good day yesterday for the most part. Got up to 59F and I got a ton of wood cut & split.

The wife and I went to Barre yesterday evening to meet up with some friends for a bite and a brew and we got lashed with one of those squalls once we got to Barre. Our friends live on a hill north of town (Mreaves 'hood?) and no sooner did we pull in the driveway when it started to pour rain and man-oh-man was the wind blowing. Must've come through here too as everything was wet again when we got home. Just like wxeye, we saw a sweet rainbow as the squall passed to the east and the sun came back out behind it. Very nice.

Mid 40s here this morning and blustry. Perfect fall day.

Hazardous morning of paddling today. Probably not a good sign when you can hear the wind ripping through the trees while eating breakfast at 4:30am. Anywhoo ... got to Long Lake pretty early - had to unload the boat by moonlight - and the water was already pretty choppy. It didn't get any better when the sun rose. lol. I intended to paddle to an island a few miles to the south and then come back, but before I got there the waves were turning into whitecaps and were breaking over my bow. The windgusts were also wreaking havoc with steering. In a nutshell, it was a lesson learned for this rookie.

Sounds like quite an adventure, man. Did you pop the sail? ;)

4312979576_9b45997a75.jpg

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Pretty good day yesterday for the most part. Got up to 59F and I got a ton of wood cut & split.

The wife and I went to Barre yesterday evening to meet up with some friends for a bite and a brew and we got lashed with one of those squalls once we got to Barre. Our friends live on a hill north of town (Mreaves 'hood?) and no sooner did we pull in the driveway when it started to pour rain and man-oh-man was the wind blowing. Must've come through here too as everything was wet again when we got home. Just like wxeye, we saw a sweet rainbow as the squall passed to the east and the sun came back out behind it. Very nice.

Mid 40s here this morning and blustry.

[/quote)

I live on a hill south of town, above South Barre actually. I missed the squall as I was on the road home from Springfield MA. My son and I spent the day working for VAST at the NE Powersports Expo. Met quite a few folks from the SNE version of GC. Very nice day down there, mostly sunny and mild.

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NICE report of the snow squall at camels hump.

I was up hiking from just south of pinkham notch yesterday and had some sleet around 4k later in afternoon...(couple hundred feet above the large boulder) ....to the north you could see squalls/lines of white moving past the upper portions of the higher mountains.

was gonna stay over and then hike it in the am...b/c i believe above 5k in the white's will def. be white today.

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[i live on a hill south of town, above South Barre actually. I missed the squall as I was on the road home from Springfield MA. My son and I spent the day working for VAST at the NE Powersports Expo. Met quite a few folks from the SNE version of GC. Very nice day down there, mostly sunny and mild.

Roger that--thought you were in the hills north of town, but apparently the other way around. Anyway, good squall, great rainbow.

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Still there on the 12z GFS today... climo favored wind direction, H85 RH of 90%+, CAA into the terrain... QPF maps are generally useless except to show the classic 0.01"+ signal which is always way underdone. But at least the model knows something should be happening in the upslope areas from NNE back through the NY lake effect areas, and then all the way south down the Apps into the southern Appalachians.

The only thing is I'd like to see those H85 wind speeds come up just a little bit... between 30-40kts seems to be optimal.

Not looking so hot on last nights Euro and today's GFS...it has mostly W winds which obviously aren't nearly as favorable.

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Not looking so hot on last nights Euro and today's GFS...it has mostly W winds which obviously aren't nearly as favorable.

Yeah and 850s don't look all that cold either. We can still do alright on a west flow if there is lake moisture from the Great Lakes...but precip is usually more showery and shredded on a west flow. Certainly doesn't get as organized as it does with a straight NW flow through the flats of souther Quebec and Champlain valley.

This time of year that's the difference between snow showers and steady accumulating snow. Also shredded vs organized would lead to warmer temps locally without more widespread upslope induced cooling of the column.

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Hazardous morning of paddling today. Probably not a good sign when you can hear the wind ripping through the trees while eating breakfast at 4:30am. Anywhoo ... got to Long Lake pretty early - had to unload the boat by moonlight - and the water was already pretty choppy. It didn't get any better when the sun rose. lol. I intended to paddle to an island a few miles to the south and then come back, but before I got there the waves were turning into whitecaps and were breaking over my bow. The windgusts were also wreaking havoc with steering. In a nutshell, it was a lesson learned for this rookie.

She can get very nasty out on the lake as i mentioned the other day, Were you trying to make it down to Sissy's Island?

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She can get very nasty out on the lake as i mentioned the other day, Were you trying to make it down to Sissy's Island?

"Wagons North Tour" :lol:

I don't know the name of that island and a quick search turned up nothing, but it's the largest one across from Colonial Mast campground. It seemed pretty close but the wind was picking up pretty good and my forward speed was pretty low at that point. When the waves started to crest my bow I decided to wave the white flag. The return trip with a tailwind was much faster, at least until the wind changed direction 90°. That's when things got really dicey. As I said, lesson learned. Took the kids to Pumpkin Land over in Mechanic Falls yesterday. Nice day although still windy. We were there all day and the kids had a great time.

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"Wagons North Tour" :lol:

I don't know the name of that island and a quick search turned up nothing, but it's the largest one across from Colonial Mast campground. It seemed pretty close but the wind was picking up pretty good and my forward speed was pretty low at that point. When the waves started to crest my bow I decided to wave the white flag. The return trip with a tailwind was much faster, at least until the wind changed direction 90°. That's when things got really dicey. As I said, lesson learned. Took the kids to Pumpkin Land over in Mechanic Falls yesterday. Nice day although still windy. We were there all day and the kids had a great time.

Gradient winter......lol, Yeah ok, That island is right after cape monday cove on the east side of the lake across from Coloniel Mast, I don't remember the name, Sissy's is way down the lake and is actually in Naples, That would have been quite the trek

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36F now and surprisingly, the grass in the yard is frozen. Not frosted, but the water from last night's showers is frozen on the grass blades. Go figure.

Nice 39F this morning in Stowe... not even close to stuff freezing, haha. Wind never went calm it looks like and we had clouds around most of the night.

I can't believe the average low at MVL right now is 35F. We haven't hit the average low in a LONG time. Last night was +4 at 39F. Average high is 56F and we've been within a degree of that the past few days... so its the overnight lows that are killing us. Today's high so far is 55F and now its down to 53F, so we'll be close to average again for highs.

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Also, just for the record, the foliage in the Champlain Valley is absolutely atrocious. I've never seen a duller foliage season or anything like it. Addison County was like dull brown, yellow, green, maybe something you could call orange... with most of the leaves just dying and falling off without even getting any color saturation.

My buddy who runs one of the oldest Plant and Tree Nursery in the state of Vermont says this is by far the worst foliage season he can remember in the valley. The difference between the colors we saw in Stowe and what was in the Champlain Valley was absolutely amazing. Its been near-record wet in both areas this year, but maybe the lack of a killing frost/freeze in the Champlain Valley is causing this strung-out foliage season where some trees are bare and others are still green, with just muted dull colors in between. In Stowe they all seemed to change at once... everything happened together but maybe that's because there's slightly less species diversity in the hill towns?

I have no idea but wow was that a big difference from interior Vermont east of the Greens.

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Also, just for the record, the foliage in the Champlain Valley is absolutely atrocious. I've never seen a duller foliage season or anything like it. Addison County was like dull brown, yellow, green, maybe something you could call orange... with most of the leaves just dying and falling off without even getting any color saturation.

My buddy who runs one of the oldest Plant and Tree Nursery in the state of Vermont says this is by far the worst foliage season he can remember in the valley. The difference between the colors we saw in Stowe and what was in the Champlain Valley was absolutely amazing. Its been near-record wet in both areas this year, but maybe the lack of a killing frost/freeze in the Champlain Valley is causing this strung-out foliage season where some trees are bare and others are still green, with just muted dull colors in between. In Stowe they all seemed to change at once... everything happened together but maybe that's because there's slightly less species diversity in the hill towns?

I have no idea but wow was that a big difference from interior Vermont east of the Greens.

wasn't good in the hudson / lake george valley either.

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I can't believe the average low at MVL right now is 35F. We haven't hit the average low in a LONG time. Last night was +4 at 39F. Average high is 56F and we've been within a degree of that the past few days... so its the overnight lows that are killing us. Today's high so far is 55F and now its down to 53F, so we'll be close to average again for highs.

Today's smoothed 13-yr avg IMBY is 54/33. I've not been particularly near that minimum (couple of 37s, one with a high of 77) since the mid 20s freezes of 10/6&7, and nothing near freezing appears likely in the near future.

Best colors I've seen, and they're nice but ordinary, are along Route 27 in south Belgrade/Sidney/AUG, of all places. N.Maine was past peak with 75% leaf drop last Friday during daylight, and given the leaf swirl as I drove south that evening, it might be 95% now.

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