Autumn in NNE

[powderfreak]

Today would be a classic SW flow type of event in the winter where we had the morning round of precipitation blast through leaving .1-.3" of QPF then warming temps. Cold air is holding tight to the east of the Green Mountain spine while the Champlain Valley warms up. Easily seen on the 3pm temperatures today...temps holding 10F cooler east of the Spine with SSW flow.

BTV is 65F

MPV is 55F

MVL is 56F

Its 55F here in Stowe right now. The Spine is the difference between low-mid 60s and mid 50s... in the winter-time this is one of those situations where BTV gets 1-2" of snow followed by drizzle at 35F while the interior never makes it out of the 20s with 2-4" snow/sleet/ice.

[powderfreak]

Murky day with occasional mist, drizzle, and fog rolling through. Of course as soon as BTV took out the mention of any rain and called it "partly cloudy" for this afternoon, it began to drizzle fairly hard. It was like driving through a dense mist that required steady windshield wipers.

This fall as definitely redeemed itself in terms of colors.

But during one of the dry periods I was able to get out and practice my putting at Stowe Country Club with the fruity pebbles in the background.

[dendrite]

Euro op looks like it'd be some accumulating snow for upstate NY/VT/N NH with the d7 system. The GFS barely lost the 2nd wave idea and the GGEM threw all of its eggs into an Apps cutting Miller A basket.

[powderfreak]

I noticed a high wind watch for BUF zones east of Ontario.... BTV didn't really mention anything except the chance for advisory level wind on Saturday. Then I saw the point 'n click forecast...

Friday Night: Rain and possibly a thunderstorm before 2am, then rain likely. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 48. South wind between 9 and 14 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

A light south wind of 9-14mph with gusts to 60mph? lol.

[powderfreak]

I was looking over some snowfall climo and found that the difference in snowfall at BTV between 2000-2011, and 1980-1991 is downright startling (in a good way).

BTV's long term average is 80.9"

BTV's average from 2000-2011 is 95.1" (yeah, the past 11 seasons have averaged a full 15" higher than the 30-year).

BTV's average from 1979-1991 was 66.7" (almost a full 30" per season less than what we are seeing these days).

[b][b]2000-2001  0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   8.7    32.9   15.7   14.4   47.6  0.2   0.0   0.0   122.5 
2001-2002  0.0   0.0   0.0   T     1.8    13.9   16.6   8.5    15.0  0.4   0.0   0.0   56.2 
2002-2003  0.0   0.0   0.0   T     20.4   8.6    31.3   9.6    8.3   4.8   0.0   0.0   83.0 
2003-2004  0.0   0.0   T     T     0.5    53.6   14.9   12.2   9.7   3.8   T     0.0   94.7 
2004-2005  0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1    22.8   19.1   29.7   18.0  0.0   0.0   0.0   89.7 
2005-2006  0.0   0.0   0.0   0.9   5.5    18.4   20.0   8.3    16.3  1.0   0.0   0.0   70.4 
2006-2007  0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   T      10.0   19.5   32.1   21.8  9.2   0.0   0.0   94.6 
2007-2008  0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.7    45.3   15.8   42.3   13.0  0.1   0.0   0.0   120.2 
2008-2009  0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   3.5    40.0   27.8   11.3   7.8   0.4   0.0   0.0   91.1 
2009-2010  0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0    17.7   48.4   24.0   0.9   5.5   T     0.0   96.5 
2010-2011  0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3    27.9   26.9   43.1   29.3  0.8    -     -    128.4[/b][/b]

Compare those seasonal snowfall numbers to this set from 1979-1991... which averaged 66.7".

[b][b]1979-1980  0.0   0.0   0.0   1.5   0.4    6.0    3.0    11.6   16.8  0.3   0.0   0.0   39.6 
1980-1981  0.0   0.0   0.0   T     12.2   17.5   8.7    11.9   13.3  1.1   0.0   0.0   64.7 
1981-1982  0.0   0.0   0.0   T     3.9    32.8   19.4   8.3    13.0  4.1   0.0   0.0   81.5 
1982-1983  0.0   0.0   0.0   T     0.8    5.0    22.5   18.3   11.9  21.3  0.7   0.0   80.5 
1983-1984  0.0   0.0   0.0   T     4.7    14.4   15.2   13.7   16.1  0.4   T     0.0   64.5 
1984-1985  0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   6.0    29.3   25.9   10.9   16.6  2.7   0.0   0.0   91.4 
1985-1986  0.0   0.0   0.0   T     4.6    21.3   33.6   18.3   8.4   T     T     0.0   86.2 
1986-1987  0.0   0.0   0.0   T     10.5   7.7    34.4   7.0    6.0   2.1   0.0   0.0   67.7 
1987-1988  0.0   0.0   0.0   0.6   6.5    12.4   9.2    26.9   6.4   2.4   0.0   0.0   64.4 
1988-1989  0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   0.6    12.4   6.6    8.5    9.7   2.3   0.0   0.0   40.4 
1989-1990  0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   5.6    20.7   17.6   20.5   10.2  2.1   0.0   0.0   76.7 
1990-1991  0.0   0.0   0.0   T     7.3    10.3   17.8   3.9    3.2   T     0.0   0.0   42.5[/b][/b]

[dendrite]

GFS/NAM/SREFs are all very wet for NH tomorrow afternoon & evening.

[MaineJayhawk]

Some nice pictures posted in this thread, guys!

Flood watches up for most NH and also Oxford County in western Maine. Might be a couple inches in these parts today and tonight. Despite that, I think I'll try to get the kayak loaded tonight (should be interesting) and head off to Bridgton early tomorrow to put in on Long Lake in the pre-dawn hours.

[moneypitmike]

Murky day with occasional mist, drizzle, and fog rolling through. Of course as soon as BTV took out the mention of any rain and called it "partly cloudy" for this afternoon, it began to drizzle fairly hard. It was like driving through a dense mist that required steady windshield wipers.

This fall as definitely redeemed itself in terms of colors.

But during one of the dry periods I was able to get out and practice my putting at Stowe Country Club with the fruity pebbles in the background.

To be sure, better color than down here. Interestingly, I think we've alrady dropped more leaves than you--at least based on your picture there.

[dryslot]

Some nice pictures posted in this thread, guys!

Flood watches up for most NH and also Oxford County in western Maine. Might be a couple inches in these parts today and tonight. Despite that, I think I'll try to get the kayak loaded tonight (should be interesting) and head off to Bridgton early tomorrow to put in on Long Lake in the pre-dawn hours.

That would be wise to be there early, If there is any wind and if its out of the north or south that lake gets some 3-4' white caps, I boated on that lake for over 20 yrs and it gets nasty...

[MaineJayhawk]

That would be wise to be there early, If there is any wind and if its out of the north or south that lake gets some 3-4' white caps, I boated on that lake for over 20 yrs and it gets nasty...

Thanks for the tip, Jeff. Winds are supposed to be from the southwest so I was figuring on hugging the western shore. Plenty of western shore for my craft.

[dryslot]

Thanks for the tip, Jeff. Winds are supposed to be from the southwest so I was figuring on hugging the western shore. Plenty of western shore for my craft.

lol, No prob Eric, You should be fine, There is plenty of west shore for all crafts on that lake.....

[powderfreak]

To be sure, better color than down here. Interestingly, I think we've alrady dropped more leaves than you--at least based on your picture there.

Yeah that is interesting but definitely possible. That first picture in the series of three is from around 1,500ft on West Hill in Stowe, while the golf course shot is literally the valley bottom at a shade under 800ft, and there is still good color up near the base of the ski resort at 1,500ft. Our major leaf-drop zone seems to start around 2,000ft or so... above that level there are more bare trees than leafed trees, but below that its still very colorful.

Sometimes I wonder if although the elevations in this area can get pretty high (people live as high up as 2,000ft in Stowe), if those harsh conditions that many think of when they think 1,000-2,000ft elevations are muted because the surrounding terrain is so much higher. Town is framed by 3,000-3,600ft ridgeline along the entire eastern border of town, and the western border of town is Mansfield and the Spine at 4,000ft+. So even terrain up around 1,500ft is still sort of a "valley location" relative to whats around it. I know that when you are at 1,500ft here you are still looking up at surrounding terrain. Whereas down in the East Slopes it seems more like you are exposed to the wind and elements a bit more at that same 1,500ft elevation. Might stress the trees a bit more into dropping their leaves earlier. I don't know... I've always wondered what effect surrounding terrain can have on comparable elevations in different areas. Its all relative I guess, just like 4,000ft out near Denver might as well be the Mississippi River Valley given that surrounding terrain is so much higher.

But these will come down quickly... this morning when I woke up my car was covered in orange leaves from the rain last night. Like to the point where I needed to get the snow scrapper out and brush the leaves off.

[Allenson]

Well, another dreary one out there today. Man the mornings are slow and creaky these days--thick cloud cover doesn't help.

Had 0.23" yesterday/last night. Meh.

[Allenson]

Here's a shot from yesterday on my ride home. Not the greatest photo in the world but I took it to illustrate something I notice every fall. Over to the lefthand side, above the firs, you might notice a patch of bare trees (mostly maple), whereas most of the rest still have leaves on them. This shot was taken in an elevated hollow where there was likely an early frost, back in the middle of September. The trees in these places that get a sneaky early frost (such as at the house too) always loose their leaves before elsewhere that didn't get that early frost. The line of bare trees extends to the left quite a bit more and is very evident to the eye, but alas, there was too much brush in the way to incorporate it into the photo. Anyhoo, intereting phenomena.

And another further up the road--classic old class IV Vermont road in fall. At this point, I was up around 1600' and was in the cloud forest, which yesterday was above 1200'.

[J.Spin]

Peak seems to be around October 13/14th in this area. One of the best years was 2003. Here is a picture I took on October 13th 2003 on Newfound Lake.

Love the Newfound Lake shot by the way wxeye - stunning! I made it my new computer desktop!

[Snow Bow]

Love the Newfound Lake shot by the way wxeye - stunning! I made it my new computer desktop!

I thought the same thing and it's my new desktop image too!

Close to .25 here since last night and 60*

Still without a frost here so far this fall. I'd be willing to skip the frost and go straight to accumulating snow if at all possible.

[powderfreak]

Nice shots, Allenson. You look to be slightly further along than we are here but its close. We have clumps of trees that are bare, and then other hillsides that are beautiful. South and west facing slopes are still firing off the color while north and east facing slopes seem to be more bare.

[Allenson]

Nice shots, Allenson. You look to be slightly further along than we are here but its close. We have clumps of trees that are bare, and then other hillsides that are beautiful. South and west facing slopes are still firing off the color while north and east facing slopes seem to be more bare.

Yeah, it's funny--some places around here are quite bare, including all the big old maples and ash around my place but indeed others are cranking right along with some nice color. As I said before, the CT valley proper is especially popping right now. The poplars, birches & beeches are the winners now in the hills whereas along the valley, the maples are still dominting the palette.

Pretty good batch of rain incoming per radar...

[dendrite]

62F with +RA now...up to 0.50" on the day.

[Allenson]

Pouring on poor us.

[wxeyeNH]

Love the Newfound Lake shot by the way wxeye - stunning! I made it my new computer desktop!

Thanks J Spin! That photograph won me first prize in the Littleton NH Art fair that year. That was a fantastic year for fall foliage!

[wxeyeNH]

Here is another picture from Oct 13 2003. Taken a few hundred feet from the picture I posted the other day. The morning was clear and calm. The lake was warm enough so that a gentle fog was over the warmer water so the other end of Newfound Lake is not visable. I like this photograph for the symmetry. Note how clear the water of Newfound is. Great to get the lake bottom, colors and fog into one photo.

Gene

[powderfreak]

That is an amazing photo Gene!

[ORH_wxman]

Both GFS and Euro have a good signal for the first upslope snow threat in the usual spots next Friday. The storm passes to our west but then once the deep trough settles in over the region, there is still leftover synoptic moisture and a good NW flow with 850 temps in the -6C range. Its about a week out, so obviously it can change, but there might finally be some snow on the mountain tops from this if it can work out.

[powderfreak]

Both GFS and Euro have a good signal for the first upslope snow threat in the usual spots next Friday. The storm passes to our west but then once the deep trough settles in over the region, there is still leftover synoptic moisture and a good NW flow with 850 temps in the -6C range. Its about a week out, so obviously it can change, but there might finally be some snow on the mountain tops from this if it can work out.

Thanks for the analysis, Will. Its far enough out there that I have been trying not to pay too much attention to it (don't want to get my hopes up) but I would love to be able to hike up to some snow. I am definitely getting antsy as its right around this time in past years where the mountain has picked up its first real snowfall of more than an inch or two. The first dusting is fun, but doesn't really do it for me. I love that first day of being in 4-6"+ where you can actually hear the snow squeak under your boots, and the hiss of strong winds blowing and drifting the snow across the terrain. All while looking down on a brown and dreary valley.

[Allenson]

1.52" yesterday. Wet.

Balmy last evening but back down to 48F at present.

[borderwx]

sitting in the same thing as you Allenson, 48F, dripping. We are ahead in rainfall though, a skosh (wrote scotch first, foreshadowing maybe) over 1.5" but its showing signs of lighter grey, still want the hood on though in the woods, wind is really rolling the water off

good day for mounting skis

awesome pics of the lake. can't imagine a place much better than NNE in the fall

[J.Spin]

Both GFS and Euro have a good signal for the first upslope snow threat in the usual spots next Friday. The storm passes to our west but then once the deep trough settles in over the region, there is still leftover synoptic moisture and a good NW flow with 850 temps in the -6C range. Its about a week out, so obviously it can change, but there might finally be some snow on the mountain tops from this if it can work out.

Thanks for the analysis, Will. Its far enough out there that I have been trying not to pay too much attention to it (don't want to get my hopes up) but I would love to be able to hike up to some snow. I am definitely getting antsy as its right around this time in past years where the mountain has picked up its first real snowfall of more than an inch or two. The first dusting is fun, but doesn't really do it for me. I love that first day of being in 4-6"+ where you can actually hear the snow squeak under your boots, and the hiss of strong winds blowing and drifting the snow across the terrain. All while looking down on a brown and dreary valley.

Seeing your comments, I checked and saw that snow showers had even snuck into our valley point and click:

Thursday Night: A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Friday: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

As you said, we’re well into the time where this should be happening for the higher elevations anyway, and last year we had our first valley snow accumulation on this date.

[Lava Rock]

no real cold shots for awhile. I'm ready for some hard frosts.

[dendrite]

no real cold shots for awhile. I'm ready for some hard frosts.

We'll have a modifying cold shot late next week as CAA sets in after the midweek system. A couple of model runs are now closing the trough off over the Lakes, tucking the sfc low back in NWward to our west. We get some strong WAA ahead of the mid/sfc cold front, but the cold air source gets cut off by the time we get the fropa and we're left with a rotting cold pool of about 0C 850s. The 6z GFS kept the trough open as it moves through the NE and keeps us a little cooler before lifting out. We'll have to see how amped up that system gets.