Ian Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 the gfs is out to 48 at ncep, still a bit to go before the item of interest. but might as well fire this up and get ready. so far it looks a lot like the 18z but the s/w of interest is just starting to enter into the pac nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2010 Author Share Posted December 8, 2010 s/w appears to be digging a bit more by 84 .. slightly stronger upstream ridging etc. precip breaking out quicker in the MO area. not sure what this changes.. quicker/further west tilt to neg later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 the quasi 50/50 continues to get slightly stronger with each run, but still not enough to save us I don't think. I'm comparing the 0z with the 18z btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 who is "us" you are referring to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2010 Author Share Posted December 8, 2010 yeah by 102/108 it's definitely going toward neg quicker... west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 who is "us" you are referring to? I believe us is central MD, where Randy lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Whats with the lack of precip with this low? At least the w, and nw side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 s/w appears to be digging a bit more by 84 .. slightly stronger upstream ridging etc. precip breaking out quicker in the MO area. not sure what this changes.. quicker/further west tilt to neg later? This is such a broad area of lp, the GFS is really struggling on where to place the dominant surface reflection. Just look at the 996mb envelope on the 0 and 18z runs around noon on Sunday, very similar, however this run keys in on a local min around Pittsburgh, while the 18z has it around Boone. Seems to be trending towards the EC and GGEM at this point which is expected given the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2010 Author Share Posted December 8, 2010 I believe us is central MD, where Randy lives. or everyone in the coastal plain it seems. not sure what the outs are in those areas at this pt though anyway. should still be a heck of a storm for someone in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Not really all that much different out to 5 days or so at the upper levels. There seems to be some very subtle interaction going on there in the middle of the country ( and slight changes from run to run ) that greatly affects the outcome at the surface. If that turns out to be slightly different, I would think that it would lead to drastic changes in the result. Don't know which way that might go, but it seems to be an important part of this puzzle. And also one you would think would be hard to pin down this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Of more interesting note, the GFS is dropping the polar vortex through NY and Northeast PA by 162 hours. Someone will see some absolute brutal cold if that verifies. Euro has been hinting at this too, so its not totally outlandish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 or everyone in the coastal plain it seems. not sure what the outs are in those areas at this pt though anyway. should still be a heck of a storm for someone in the interior. What part of the interior is the $64 question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Of more interesting note, the GFS is dropping the polar vortex through NY and Northeast PA by 162 hours. Someone will see some absolute brutal cold if that verifies. Euro has been hinting at this too, so its not totally outlandish. We're looking at record cold down here if this verifies....I can remember very, very few times if ever I've seen sub 520 HEIGHTS down here. That isnt even to mention the beating FLA is going to take from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 And who has the highest heights on the map Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2010 Author Share Posted December 8, 2010 so much for the block saving winter on the east coast i guess if it's going to just park a huge 500 low over the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Really amazing cold for December according to the model. And then another cutter for next weekend in the long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 That's some sick cold across the east, especially in the Northeast with sub -20C 850 temps. Shades of December '89 perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2010 Author Share Posted December 8, 2010 looks like it repeats again at 288. might be a good time to plan a few weeks in chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 In all honesty, had we not had any blocking, we'd all be in a zonal flow and torching, at least with the block, we'll be able to record a below normal month FINALLY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Ukie is still a big storm for the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 KLWX AFD also mentions an even colder airmass early next week. Today we had a hard time even reaching 32 degrees. The wind made it feel like 16. Dews were in the upper single digits. Sick, sick cold early next week. I like chilly jebwalks but Tuesday night was tough, really tough with that wind. Or I'm getting old. Beginning to wonder if any ponds, lakes beginning to freeze? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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