Midlo Snow Maker Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Canaan valley hit 33 with a lot of frost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 42 at the nearest weatherbug station 45 at JYO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 climo > models at 7-8 days...it won't get that cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 48 IMBY last night. Slept with windows open. Fall will always be my favorite season and it's really nice to get a taste like this before real fall sets in. NFL players in the MW and NE are going to love it this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Zwyts wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 The models are really good when it comes to non storm patterns and even there sans specifics. 10 yrs till meteorologists are obsolete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 The models are really good when it comes to non storm patterns and even there sans specifics. 10 yrs till meteorologists are obsolete. lol, I've heard that mantra for 30 years. Certainly the role of the met is and will be changing but mesoscale system will remain a problem for quite awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 The models had 50s for Highs and 30s for lows. Zwyts wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 16, 2011 Author Share Posted September 16, 2011 The models had 50s for Highs and 30s for lows. Zwyts wins Looking at the JMA again? You might want to try another look at the very first post of this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 lol, I've heard that mantra for 30 years. Certainly the role of the met is and will be changing but mesoscale system will remain a problem for quite awhile. well it was tongue in cheeck of course. tho if you assume moore's law to be correct -- and if the funding is there (which is probably a bigger question) -- the next 10 yrs should see more advances than the past 30. i just sometimes think the models dont get enough credit. most forecasts are like 80%-90% model output. then you have mesoscale ones like t-storms where meteorologists don't really have much clue on the true specifics either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 well it was tongue in cheeck of course. tho if you assume moore's law to be correct -- and if the funding is there (which is probably a bigger question) -- the next 10 yrs should see more advances than the past 30. i just sometimes think the models dont get enough credit. most forecasts are like 80%-90% model output. then you have mesoscale ones like t-storms where meteorologists don't really have much clue on the true specifics either. Certainly most forecasts are probably 90% model output, maybe more and some like to dis the models and imply that forecasteres should ignore them. if you look at QPF scores, they have not obeyed Moore's law. The improvements have been pretty linear despite the massive increases in computing power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Certainly most forecasts are probably 90% model output, maybe more and some like to dis the models and imply that forecasteres should ignore them. if you look at QPF scores, they have not obeyed Moore's law. The improvements have been pretty linear despite the massive increases in computing power. that's good to know.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 that's good to know.. Here's a graph of day 1 through 3 threat scores. Note how the best fit is a line for each of them but that the day 3 score for .50" or greater amounts is increasing faster than the day 1 scores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 IAD tied record low for date. I know record lows still happen, but it feels like they never do any more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.