Floydbuster Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 2011 is on track to reach the Greek Alphabet as occurred in the 2005 Hurricane Season. Of course, we got all the way to Zeta in 2005, and had the unnamed Sub-tropical storm in October 2005 had a name, then Hurricane Wilma would have been Hurricane Alpha and we would have gotten down to Tropical Storm Eta. Had the system that was a "high" chance at becoming a tropical storm been named last week, that would have likely made our current storm (Nate) Ophelia, which would put us even further down the list. Right now, odds are favoring an active late season, and the question arises, what if Hurricane Gamma is a monster storm? What if it's Hurricane Mu? Literally? Can you imagine? ...MU ON TRACK FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH 115 MPH WINDS... It's insane. Now technically there are no plans to "retire" a storm, but if Wilma had been Alpha, what happens if Alpha remains on the list and this year becomes a late season Mitch-type storm named Alpha? Two monster Hurricane Alpha's within six years? Do we call it "Alpha '11" like some future Sci-Fi film? Should we create a name list of just general Greek names instead of alphabet? Something like: Alpha Bartholomew Cassius Dagmar Elias ect, ect? Or an entirely new name list for alternate storms? Anthony Bridget Chester Doreen Emmett ect, ect.... Any opinions on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Thought-provoking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 The names thing is kinda dumb as a whole. They start at A every year and almost every F, G and I storm has been retired at least once. But as far as I know Wilma is the only W storm to be retired, and probably none of the other late-alphabet names have been. There should just be a continuously circulating list of 176 names (8 complete A-to-W lists), and every year we just pick up where we left off with the last one. No need for Greek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 The names thing is kinda dumb as a whole. They start at A every year and almost every F, G and I storm has been retired at least once. But as far as I know Wilma is the only W storm to be retired, and probably none of the other late-alphabet names have been. There should just be a continuously circulating list of 176 names (8 complete A-to-W lists), and every year we just pick up where we left off with the last one. No need for Greek. Wilma isn't the only late alphabet retiree. Rita and Tomas are both recent late alphabetters too. I am on my phone otherwise I would post a link to the list of retired storms so that you don't have to guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 I did always think it was crazy that the most powerful Atlantic basin hurricane on record (pressure wise) was that close to being a Greek letter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 The names thing is kinda dumb as a whole. They start at A every year and almost every F, G and I storm has been retired at least once. But as far as I know Wilma is the only W storm to be retired, and probably none of the other late-alphabet names have been. There should just be a continuously circulating list of 176 names (8 complete A-to-W lists), and every year we just pick up where we left off with the last one. No need for Greek. West Pac system is goofy. Its nice to know the first storm will be the 'A" storm, etc. Makes it whole lot easier to remember season names when you know the 'F' storm follows the 'E' storm. Greek works for me. If we wind up retiring gamma or something, we can go with 'gimmel'. Then Sanskrit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 I did always think it was crazy that the most powerful Atlantic basin hurricane on record (pressure wise) was that close to being a Greek letter. Wilma '05 should have been Alpha. The NHC designated an early October subtropical season in the post-season that would have been named; if it had been recognized operationally, Vince would have been Wilma and Wilma would have been Alpha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 "Third Column" storm names to be retired: Opal Paloma Rita Roxanne Stan Tomas Wilma As far as the Greek Alphabet goes, as far as I understand, the name would be retired and "skipped the next time the Greek Alphabet was used. Logically, there is no way we get to "Mu", for example, in a normal Alpha-Omega procession without having some sort of retirements going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 As far as the Greek Alphabet goes, as far as I understand, the name would be retired and "skipped the next time the Greek Alphabet was used. Logically, there is no way we get to "Mu", for example, in a normal Alpha-Omega procession without having some sort of retirements going on. So if a sloppy wet TD 5 dumped 35 inches of rain on Shreddeola, causing 100 year flooding, massive damage and casualties, would the number 5 be retired? (Of course it wouldn't...just wanted to throw that out there) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 So if a sloppy wet TD 5 dumped 35 inches of rain on Shreddeola, causing 100 year flooding, massive damage and casualties, would the number 5 be retired? I don't really think that's remotely comparable since all storms have a number and Alpha-Omega is their designated name like Arlene-Whitney. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 West Pac system is goofy. Its nice to know the first storm will be the 'A" storm, etc. Makes it whole lot easier to remember season names when you know the 'F' storm follows the 'E' storm. Greek works for me. If we wind up retiring gamma or something, we can go with 'gimmel'. Then Sanskrit. Well the F storm would still follow the E storm. Except you might start on the N storm in June, but be back to the next C storm by the end of the season. TS names don't have to be as formulaic as they are. Their goal is to increase public awareness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 And with regards to what I was saying earlier, it's not that there haven't been any late-season retired storms (in fact I just checked the list and was surprised at how many there were) but that the majority of retired names are earlier in the list. I just did a rough count based off Wiki's list and found that out of 76 storms retired (including Gracie), 59 of those were A-J storms (the proverbial "average" season of 10 named storms). V is the only letter with no retired storms. The winner is actually C, with 9 retired names. Sooner or later we'll run out of C names, or resort to porn star names like Hurricane Chrystal. So why not start this season with Virgine (the next-in-line for 2010)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 I don't really think that's remotely comparable since all storms have a number and Alpha-Omega is their designated name like Arlene-Whitney. Sure it is. Alpha-Omega are no more valid as "names" than are the spelled out representations of the numbers One, Two, Three, Four, etc. In any event, my post was more tongue-in-cheek than anything else (although IIRC about 8-10 years ago there was an un-named, tropical disturbance that wrought the kind of devastation on Shredderola I described). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Well the F storm would still follow the E storm. Except you might start on the N storm in June, but be back to the next C storm by the end of the season. TS names don't have to be as formulaic as they are. Their goal is to increase public awareness. I actually agree with Thunder Road here. There really isn't a need to start at "A" every year if it comes at the cost of having to use the Greek Alphabet at the end of the season. The general public follow storms that are a threat and don't follow the ones that aren't. For those more interested in the progression of the season, I'm sure we'll have no trouble keeping things straight. I mean come on, look at the West Pac! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 I actually agree with Thunder Road here. There really isn't a need to start at "A" every year if it comes at the cost of having to use the Greek Alphabet at the end of the season. The general public follow storms that are a threat and don't follow the ones that aren't. For those more interested in the progression of the season, I'm sure we'll have no trouble keeping things straight. I mean come on, look at the West Pac! If it weren't for JTWC using storm number with the names, the West Pac would absolutely baffle me. No, the American system is best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 If it weren't for JTWC using storm number with the names, the West Pac would absolutely baffle me. No, the American system is best. And I'm sure they will keep it the way it is. It's easier for the simple-minded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 I would propose raising the threshold for naming... 35-45 kt TS's are like the EF0's and EF1's of tornadoes, which are increasing in number only because we're better at detecting them. Likewise as we get more NS's due to better detection of the weaker systems we should begin to do more differentiation of the pedestrian 35-45 knotters vs. the stronger storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Nah, seeing how quickly Humberto went from tame tropical storm to a hurricane, gale force winds is probably a good limit for names. Like I said, there is another easy alphabet to remember, if alpha ever got retired, go with aleph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 you could at least lengthen the name list to 24 like the eastern Pacific, or 26 if you felt really crazy. No reason to only have 21 names. That would be good for most years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 you could at least lengthen the name list to 24 like the eastern Pacific, or 26 if you felt really crazy. No reason to only have 21 names. That would be good for most years. The reason they don't use certain letters is because it's a 6 year cycle, and some letters don't really have 6 names. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 The reason they don't use certain letters is because it's a 6 year cycle, and some letters don't really have 6 names. No that's not the reason. The eastern Pacific just rotates one male and one female list for X Y Z (e.g. Xavier and Xina), so as it is set up, you only need two names. I think the reason was because 21 was the previous observed maximum when the name lists were created back in the 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtticaFanatica Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 I would propose raising the threshold for naming... 35-45 kt TS's are like the EF0's and EF1's of tornadoes, which are increasing in number only because we're better at detecting them. Likewise as we get more NS's due to better detection of the weaker systems we should begin to do more differentiation of the pedestrian 35-45 knotters vs. the stronger storms. You don't mean to suggest that EF0 or EF1 tornadoes are pedestrian or that we should further differentiate the rating of tornadoes, though, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 Right now, odds are favoring an active late season, and the question arises, what if Hurricane Gamma is a monster storm? What if it's Hurricane Mu? Literally? Can you imagine? :weenie: 2005 had an epic late season. Especially an epic October. If 2011 pulls it off, I'll be impressed, but I'd also like to know what "odds" you are looking at that favor an active late season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 The question of retiring Greek names came up in 2005. I believe the answer was that it wouldn't get skipped; rather, it would be known as "Alpha 2011". If a subsequent year went into the Greek alphabet, and that storm was extreme, it would be "Alpha 2012". Of course, this wouldn't be such an issue if they didn't name pieces of slop like Don. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 They should do what the East Pacific does and use the rotation of Y and Z...I don't like the X thing at all, thats just really dumb. You could use Q before X and have more names. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 10, 2011 Author Share Posted September 10, 2011 :weenie: 2005 had an epic late season. Especially an epic October. If 2011 pulls it off, I'll be impressed, but I'd also like to know what "odds" you are looking at that favor an active late season? The returning La Nina. I'd foresee some decent October/November activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 I actually agree with Thunder Road here. There really isn't a need to start at "A" every year if it comes at the cost of having to use the Greek Alphabet at the end of the season. The general public follow storms that are a threat and don't follow the ones that aren't. For those more interested in the progression of the season, I'm sure we'll have no trouble keeping things straight. I mean come on, look at the West Pac! The only "beef" I have with naming/designating is using TS and Hurricane...I know there's a ton of tradition behind it but in the scheme of things there isn't much difference between a 65 mph storm and a 75 mph hurricane. I'd rather just name them all Tropical Cyclones ala Australia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 lol both Maria and Nate could possibly not reach hurricane intensity ... we would be at 14 / 2 / 2 ... that's just messed up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 lol both Maria and Nate could possibly not reach hurricane intensity ... we would be at 14 / 2 / 2 ... that's just messed up Yes, that low H % obviously makes for an overall less exciting season than otherwise would be the case. However, look at the good side. IF this incredibly low ratio of H's to NS's were to hold up, we'd be able to tell our grandchildren one day that we had the pleasure of experiencing the great and very busy nonhurricane hurricane season of 2011. Also, it is kind of fun to talk about it now since it is so "messed up"....gives us something to discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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