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August Rains in NJ Have Been A One-in-Multimillennial Event


LocoAko

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First off, the Office of the New Jersey State Climatologist has just published an awesome overview of the historical rains that have hit New Jersey during the month of August. It can be viewed here and is definitely worth checking out. The average rainfall in NJ was 16.64" (with some locations surpassing 2 feet), beating the previous record by almost 5". Unreal.

Of further interest, research courtesy of mgerb shows that the return period of this event for New Brunswick, NJ, which received a total of 21.03" of rain in August, is more than 1 in 1000 years. The 1-in-1000 return interval rainfall total is 20.3". This is with a 90% confidence interval.

Even more impressive, the 1-in-1000 return interval rainfall total for Seabrook Farms, NJ, is 21.8". Their 30-day total is 27.58", making this a decidedly once in multi-millennia year event for many locations in the state.

Some astounding statistics, for sure...

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I believe the flooding in the summer of 2004 that devastated the Medford Lakes area in SJ was considered a 1000 year event. We're certainly making a lot of weather history this decade...

I'll never forget the canoe bent around a tree that was like six feet off the ground. Kind of an iconic image of the event around here...

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I'm curious how would 25" (Philly since August 1) rank on the scale of "once in" status? 1500 years? Longer?

I can't find your statistics that show 25" for Philly, but assuming that's right and is from August 1 - now, the return period for 25" in 45 days is greater than 1-in-1000, yes (that's as far as the scale goes). A 1-in-1000 year 45-day rainfall total for Philadelphia is 22.3".

You can find this all here: http://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/pfds_map_cont.html?bkmrk=nj

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There will probably be very little snow this winter locally, as I am having a brand new snowblower delivered tomorrow. :arrowhead:

I actually debunked this last winter. A friend bought a snowblower the morning of the Boxing Day storm, but decided it was not big enough for his property. He called and asked if I just wanted to buy it from him before he returned it (we talked about them Christmas Eve) and I eagerly accepted. In the interim of waiting for him to arrive, I was silently panicking that I had jinxed the whole thing. My wife was more vocal and had a blast rubbing it in, but thankfully everything turned out OK and I had ol' betsy out there the next morning going to town. My neighbors thought I was being really nice by blowing them out, but truthfully, I was having too much fun to stop...:P

Grothar, can you throw snow to Ohio with that thing or what? ;)

Here's my "KU strength" blower. Hoping she gets another workout this year...

31AM63FE752_product_listing.png

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That is one jacked up looking snowblower. It must throw the snow a few blocks down the road!

Good laugh- I guess it will blow snow to ohio but I rather aim it at NYC- they are always crying for snow. By the way Its not pimp my ride- it's pimp my blower. I have to put on chrome wheels, stero with boomboxes so the neighbors can here the bass tunes, headlights, foglights and running lights and of course a GPS to find my way around the neighborhood during a blizzard

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which is the more impressive all-time monthly record at Philly - the 19.31" of rain last month or the 51.5" of snow during FEB 2010?

Phew boy, good question... I would have to say the rain totals last month simply because snowfall totals can be influenced by many different factors given the same QPF values. Using 7:1 ratios as a realistic (for a lot of the area) and arbitrary value, the 19.31" inches of rain would roughly translate to 135" of snow. I know they are not "like for like" and there are a myriad of other factors in play, but I still think the rain was the more impressive total. That being said, 51.5" of snow is nothing to sneeze at. I remember measuring ~43" of snow depth after the second Feb blizzard that year. I knew at the time, I had better document it because it may not happen again in my lifetime...

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Phew boy, good question... I would have to say the rain totals last month simply because snowfall totals can be influenced by many different factors given the same QPF values. Using 7:1 ratios as a realistic (for a lot of the area) and arbitrary value, the 19.31" inches of rain would roughly translate to 135" of snow. I know they are not "like for like" and there are a myriad of other factors in play, but I still think the rain was the more impressive total. That being said, 51.5" of snow is nothing to sneeze at. I remember measuring ~43" of snow depth after the second Feb blizzard that year. I knew at the time, I had better document it because it may not happen again in my lifetime...

Or could these types of events be the new norm?

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