00z Dec 8 Model Guidance

[Analog96]

NYC could see wraparound snow, but the low would have to be positioned to their SE, E, or NE, if the low is to the north over ALB its almost impossible to see any significant wraparound since the NNW flow causes too much of a downslope.

True. If the low heads a little East of where the GFS has it, you could see more wraparound.

[SnoSki14]

We could still see snow showers after the storm passes because the big block that builds will allow the storm to hang around the area, kind of what we just saw with the past vortex.

[tombo82685]

NYC could see wraparound snow, but the low would have to be positioned to their SE, E, or NE, if the low is to the north over ALB its almost impossible to see any significant wraparound since the NNW flow causes too much of a downslope.

thats what the dgex was showing correct, with that wrap around?

[benfica356]

the images are nearly identical at 00z 48 hr than 18z at 54 hr

[tombo82685]

through hr 57, it looks like the pv is a good bit further northeast, well atleast the lower hgts associated with it is, anyone else seeing the same?

[Analog96]

We could still see snow showers after the storm passes because the big block that builds will allow the storm to hang around the area, kind of what we just saw with the past vortex.

I think the snow showers this go-around would be stronger, and have a better chance of accumulating, because temperatures will be signifcantly lower.

[SnowGoose69]

thats what the dgex was showing correct, with that wrap around?

The DGEX was more showing the second way NYC can see wraparound snows where the trough undergoes a negative tilt as the low passes along their latitude or just a bit north of their latitude to the east allowing the low pressure area to slow down a bit and track NNW.

[tombo82685]

hr 81 their is a sub 1008 pressure bout 100 miles wnw of dallas, stronger 50/50 low lowering the hgts on the east coast a little, though in conflict a little more ridging over the pac nw with the ridge axis over pacific coast

[isnice]

hr 81 their is a sub 1008 pressure bout 100 miles wnw of dallas, stronger 50/50 low lowering the hgts on the east coast a little, though in conflict a little more ridging over the pac nw with the ridge axis over pacific coast

Sounds like a cutter to me...not different to the other tens of runs saying the same exact thing. I know the correct thing to do is wait and see, but meteorologists have to make a decision. They can't just leave days 5 and 6 blank on a 7 day forecast. They have to go with what the majority of the models are saying, however they wish to interpret them.

[Analog96]

Sounds like a cutter to me...not different to the other tens of runs saying the same exact thing. I know the correct thing to do is wait and see, but meteorologists have to make a decision. They can't just leave days 5 and 6 blank on a 7 day forecast. They have to go with what the majority of the models are saying, however they wish to interpret them.

Exactly. Then you gradually make changes as you get closer, if necessary.

[_AR_]

Sounds like a cutter to me...not different to the other tens of runs saying the same exact thing. I know the correct thing to do is wait and see, but meteorologists have to make a decision. They can't just leave days 5 and 6 blank on a 7 day forecast. They have to go with what the majority of the models are saying, however they wish to interpret them.

A good one would put up a question mark and explain the possibilities. Or say a major storm is on the way to increase ratings.

[Analog96]

A good one would put up a question mark and explain the possibilities. Or say a major storm is on the way to increase ratings.

The news anchor can say the major storm is on the way. Then the met will come on and talk sense.

[tombo82685]

through hr 108 a 996 low over cincy, another area of low pressure looks like it has formed over charlotte, sc, well its another area of lower pressues, that one is sub 1000

[Thunder Road]

s/w seems to be a hair farther south compared to 18z, but probably not enough to warrant a different solution

[tombo82685]

broad area of 996 low pressure at hr 114 centered over hagerstown, but it looks like there is a secondary low over raliegh

[CooL]

Rain for everyone on this run. Its not looking good, even if you want snow in PA. This thing just goes on steroids way to early and phases like a mothe.. to give us hope.

[isnice]

Blizzard conditions in Indianapolis.

[tombo82685]

hr 126 is a sub 980 low over albany, there were some decent trends, but in the end same result. It seems like we need that pv to phase later.

[Ridingtime]

It's going to take a miracle to get this thing to work out for us. I am not sure what will cause any sort of transfer to the coast with out any blocking or 50/50 low, the only place this thing can go is through the lakes.

[isnice]

It's sickening how much snow Buffalo is going to have by the end of the month...

[mattinpa]

hr 126 is a sub 980 low over albany, there were some decent trends, but in the end same result. It seems like we need that pv to phase later.

One good thing is the models could easily be wrong about the phase.. we still need a thread the needle, though. Hard to believe with all this cold air.

[tombo82685]

hr 150 has -20 80s from phl to nyc and 2/3rds of pa, surface temps are 15-10

[SnowGoose69]

G

One good thing is the models could easily be wrong about the phase.. we still need a thread the needle, though. Hard to believe with all this cold air.

The GFS still seems lost on half heartedly wanting to get a secondary development....I cannot envision the evolution of the low from 102 hours onward...up to that point it seems legit...after 102 that thing is either going to continue deepening and going NE over or west of PIT/BUF or its going to transfer a secondary to the coast or near the coast over the Delmarva or NJ...at this point I'm leaning still towards the cutter heading west of BUF.

[isnice]

It's sickening how much snow Buffalo is going to have by the end of the month...

Actually the GFS is right on target with its 12z run...maybe 10 miles further east. Score for the GGEM, the first model to show a cutter. The Euro promptly followed suit, and it looks like now the models are hammering out which side of the Apps to run on and if a secondary should develop.

All of those who are saying, "You should wait to say that," trust me, I would love for you to bring up this statement as a quote when we're sitting by the fireside on Sunday night as a blizzard bears down on I-95, telling me how wrong I was.

[SnoSki14]

Tonight's gfs run says 50s and rain. what's with the significant differences between the 0z and 12z runs vs the 06 and 18z runs. The latter are always more amplified, then colder and further east with the storm than the former runs.

[tombo82685]

surface temp highs next tuesday are upper teens to 20, all of nc is below freezing for highs also.

[Isotherm]

I doubt we're going to see much trending in our favor w/ this system as Greenland blocking has basically dissipated by that time. And as a result, we've got nothing but low pressure across SE Canada -- no strong surface HP ridges to hold the low level cold air in place. If the current model depictions are correct, there's not much reason to have a secondary transfer since there's no blocking high to the north. The primary low is free to cut inland as it pleases. This looks to be a lost cause for I-95 IMO.

[earthlight]

498 thickness over PA and NJ at 168

[isnice]

hr 150 has -20 80s from phl to nyc and 2/3rds of pa, surface temps are 15-10

Ultimate kick in the ass.

One thing is for certain though, snow showers will be in the area. This low is going to generate historic lake-effect and some of that is going to make it over here. Yesterday, there were constant flurries and light snow showers throughout the day. I imagine that for three days straight with temps in the upper 20s...I'm perfectly happy with that.

[Chris L]

498 thickness over PA and NJ at 168

Absolutely Insane.

I wonder, John, how cold do you believe it will get around here?