bluewave Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 AO analogs continued to feature blocking patterns two winters after a monthly AO index below -2.5. I used monthly readings during the Dec-Mar periods. The six analogs that I was able to find still had some degree of blocking lingering into the 3rd winter. The degree of blocking during the last two winters was so strong that these analogs are only used a general guide to the possibilities for the 2011-2012 winter.This is not an attempt to try and nail down seasonal snowfall totals or blocking specifics this early in the game but to look toward the blocking potential for the coming winter. As always,the Fall pattern going into the winter will hopefully reveal more clues as to the potential. March...1958...AO...-2.522 DJFM 1959-1960 March...1962.....-2.848 DJFM 1963-1964 January...1966...-3.232 DJFM 1967-1968 February...1969..-3.114 DJFM 1970-1971 January...1977...-3.767 DJFM 1978-1979 January..1985...-2.806 DJFM 1986-1987 February...2010...-4.266 DJFM 2011-2012 ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I'm liking the odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 As always your research is a treat to read. Nice Job and looking forward to seeing the final results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 7, 2011 Author Share Posted September 7, 2011 I'm liking the odds. As always your research is a treat to read. Nice Job and looking forward to seeing the final results. Thanks. It will be interesting to see how things work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 nice research...When the AO is at its lowest point of the winter most probably it will be cold and snowy around the date... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 the monthly AO value was -1.063...Only two years had a lower August value... year...Aug.AO index...Winters low value 1977.....-1.412.....-3.014 Feb... 1964.....-1.207.....-2.084 Feb... 2012.....-1.063.....-??? 1960.....-1.008.....-1.506 Jan... 1950.....-0.851.....-1.928 Dec... 1987.....-0.836.....-1.066 Feb... 1986.....-0.826.....-1.473 Feb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 10, 2011 Author Share Posted September 10, 2011 the monthly AO value was -1.063...Only two years had a lower August value... year...Aug.AO index...Winters low value 1977.....-1.412.....-3.014 Feb... 1964.....-1.207.....-2.084 Feb... 2012.....-1.063.....-??? 1960.....-1.008.....-1.506 Jan... 1950.....-0.851.....-1.928 Dec... 1987.....-0.836.....-1.066 Feb... 1986.....-0.826.....-1.473 Feb... Thanks for posting, Uncle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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