earthlight Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Maria has formed as of 11:00am. Forecast models continue her on a northwest heading for at least a handful of days. It's too early to speculate where she may end up beyond that. One thing is for sure, atmospheric conditions aren't overly supportive of steady strengthening. Accordingly, the NHC advisory has her remaining below hurricane strength through Day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Maria has formed as of 11:00am. Forecast models continue her on a northwest heading for at least a handful of days. It's too early to speculate where she may end up beyond that. One thing is for sure, atmospheric conditions aren't overly supportive of steady strengthening. Accordingly, the NHC advisory has her remaining below hurricane strength through Day 5. Staying weak will do her well if she wants to stay away from the dreaded recurve. We are quickly running out of time if you want to see an east coast landfalling hurricane, at least up this way, as the westerlies are making their jog south and we are already seeing strong troughs advertised in the long range on all reliable models. This, combined with Nina coming back, the northern flow is only going to get stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Some of the fringe bands are on KOKX radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Some of the fringe bands are on KOKX radar. really? that would be Katia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 really? that would be Katia. I thought for sure the thread title said 'Katia'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Eh, Maria looks to take a similar path to Katia...rough surf for two weekends in a row? Sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Take it fwiw 10 day prog but the 00z ecm has Maria/remnants hitting into NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Take it fwiw 10 day prog but the 00z ecm has Maria/remnants hitting into NC. if this happens flooding will resume if it hits the northeast...This is something we don't need... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 if this happens flooding will resume if it hits the northeast...This is something we don't need... Seems like an extreme outlier, and we can go a few months with no rain and my sump pump would still be working at this point. GFS qpf through the next 9 days - i'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 9, 2011 Author Share Posted September 9, 2011 Tropical guidance this morning definitely seems to be developing some western split...but when you look at the models which are to the left, you realize what's going on. The NGP and CMC are two of the major models that are to the left of the forecast..not terribly convincing. The majority of the models still take her more N after 70 W and then NE...and the NHC track is even a bit left of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Need to warth Maria not so much for a direct hit but for the possible interaction between a strong cold front and whatever she is at the time. Several models blow up a pretty sizeable storm as the two meet, fueled by a pretty impressive thermal gradient. Loop the 0Z euro from last night and see what it wants to do. It takes the last remnants of Maria and intensifies it as it comes up to the coast but not as a tropical system. http://www.meteo.psu.../ecmwfloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 you will not get an EC landfall with an eastern trough like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 you will not get an EC landfall with an eastern trough like this Nope, but the trough moves out very quickly and if Maria or her remnants putts along she could escape the trough, ala 00Z euro last night and then comes up as some kind of hybrid with yet more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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