The Tropical version of March 2001

[CAT5ANDREW]

WHen Hurricane Hugo hit South Carolina back in late Sept 1989,the remains were supposed make a turn inland and evenually come right over NYC with 5-8 inches of rainfall and gusty winds.That was the forecast as Hugo was slamming into Charleston SC.What actually happened though was Hugo kept moving NW and eventually went over lake Huron.NYC did not receive a drop of rainfall from the remains,despite forecasts insisting that we would see heavy rainfall.That was the biggest tropical bust I ever saw.We did however get 45-55MPH winds from the pressure gradient between Hugo and a HP system which snapped power lines knocked out power to Long Island and Conn.

The next day temps reached the low 80s but dropped into the 40s by evening as a sharp cold front went through.That is the most dramatic temp drop for SEPT I can ever remember.

[TheTrials]

WHen Hurricane Hugo hit South Carolina back in late Sept 1989,the remains were supposed make a turn inland and evenually come right over NYC with 5-8 inches of rainfall and gusty winds.That was the forecast as Hugo was slamming into Charleston SC.What actually happened though was Hugo kept moving NW and eventually went over lake Huron.NYC did not receive a drop of rainfall from the remains,despite forecasts insisting that we would see heavy rainfall.That was the biggest tropical bust I ever saw.We did however get 45-55MPH winds from the pressure gradient between Hugo and a HP system which snapped power lines knocked out power to Long Island and Conn.

The next day temps reached the low 80s but dropped into the 40s by evening as a sharp cold front went through.That is the most dramatic temp drop for SEPT I can ever remember.

Remember this well. Gray skies all day with fast moving clouds and some wind but nothing else. Pretty dissapointing, but nothing like the lead up to March 2001 when NYC was shut down for a storm which never materialized.

[SnowGoose69]

1989 was an absolute nightmare for forecasters in the NYC area minus the Thanksgiving day snow event which given it was 1989 and our best models were the LFM and NGM was very well forecast from several days out. Outside of that we had the notorious 2/23/89 bust, the missed snow event on March 6th or 7th which dropped over 6 inches in some areas of NJ and was more or less completely unforecast, the epic damaging late November squall line which was also generally unforecast despite the fact quite a bit of severe weather had been occurring along the boundary earlier in the day and the day prior in the Great Lakes, and of course we capped it all off with the disaster that was 12/15/89 and about 3 other snow events that never were in December 1989.

[Stormlover74]

Yeah that was a crazy severe weather outbreak, especially for that time of year. Something like 20 states had tornadoes or wind damage reported. But yes I will never forgot the snowstorm that wasn't on 12/15/89...being so close to Christmas just made it all that much worse....especially with the arctic outbreak that followed that would have allowed the snow to stick around well through the month...there were also several other snow chances with storms that missed that area or stayed rain or snowed when the ground was too warm and didn't stick

1989 was an absolute nightmare for forecasters in the NYC area minus the Thanksgiving day snow event which given it was 1989 and our best models were the LFM and NGM was very well forecast from several days out. Outside of that we had the notorious 2/23/89 bust, the missed snow event on March 6th or 7th which dropped over 6 inches in some areas of NJ and was more or less completely unforecast, the epic damaging late November squall line which was also generally unforecast despite the fact quite a bit of severe weather had been occurring along the boundary earlier in the day and the day prior in the Great Lakes, and of course we capped it all off with the disaster that was 12/15/89 and about 3 other snow events that never were in December 1989.

[CAT5ANDREW]

1989 was an absolute nightmare for forecasters in the NYC area minus the Thanksgiving day snow event which given it was 1989 and our best models were the LFM and NGM was very well forecast from several days out.  Outside of that we had the notorious 2/23/89 bust, the missed snow event on March 6th or 7th which dropped over 6 inches in some areas of NJ and was more or less completely unforecast, the epic damaging late November squall line which was also generally unforecast despite the fact quite a bit of severe weather had been occurring along the boundary earlier in the day and the day prior in the Great Lakes, and of course we capped it all off with the disaster that was 12/15/89 and about 3 other snow events that never were in December 1989.

Elliot Abrahams of Accuweather spoke about the possbility of a rain to accumulating wind blown snow event more than 48 hours before in early March 1989.There was also a blown forecast AUg 19 1989 when a heavy rainstorm of 4-5 inches only yielded 10th of an inch as the rain shield broke up as it moved North from the delmarva where several inches fell.That was a blessing in disguise though as that as a very wet summer so the rain was not exactly needed.

The Nov Squall line,the second one (the first one was on the 16th and killed several schoolkids in an Upstate NY school) on the evening of the 20th is the most intense squall line I have ever experienced and is among the the most powerful one we have seen in these parts in the last 50 years.WInds of 70-100MPH from PA to Long Island (Port Jefferson recorded a 100MPH gust)KLGA recorded a 75MPH gust.I will never forget the brief yet intense lightning display that heralded the fronts arrival.Very little rain fell here in Queens but the winds were epic.Up until last years macroburst,this squall line equaled the labor Day derecho for winds here.The cold air that rushed in set the stage for the Thanksgiving snowstorm 3 days later.

[CAT5ANDREW]

Yeah that was a crazy severe weather outbreak, especially for that time of year. Something like 20 states had tornadoes or wind damage reported. But yes I will never forgot the snowstorm that wasn't on 12/15/89...being so close to Christmas just made it all that much worse....especially with the arctic outbreak that followed that would have allowed the snow to stick around well through the month...there were also several other snow chances with storms that missed that area or stayed rain or snowed when the ground was too warm and didn't stick

12/15/89 was as epic a snow bust we ever had here.Near Blizzard conditions with a foo of snow was predicted and Winter Storm Warnings were in effect.I did not receive a single flake.

We came thisclose to having a repeat on 12/19/09.People dont realize how close we were to an epic bust that day.I am shocked and happy with the 14 inches I got in that storm.

[Stormlover74]

That was a very different scenario though. A last minute wind shift caused the snow to change to rain almost immediately and we ended up jumping into the upper 30s ....but "only" 4 to 8" was forecast. I don't recall a foot or blizzard conditions. The 2/24/89 storm was the one of course that missed us to the south where AC got over 20" and there was a very sharp cutoff around Monmouth/Ocean counties.

12/15/89 was as epic a snow bust we ever had here.Near Blizzard conditions with a foo of snow was predicted and Winter Storm Warnings were in effect.I did not receive a single flake.

We came thisclose to having a repeat on 12/19/09.People dont realize how close we were to an epic bust that day.I am shocked and happy with the 14 inches I got in that storm.

[CAT5ANDREW]

That was a very different scenario though. A last minute wind shift caused the snow to change to rain almost immediately and we ended up jumping into the upper 30s ....but "only" 4 to 8" was forecast. I don't recall a foot or blizzard conditions. The 2/24/89 storm was the one of course that missed us to the south where AC got over 20" and there was a very sharp cutoff around Monmouth/Ocean counties.

The NWS had us in a 8-12 inch snowfall.It was a Miller B type setup which obviously went horribly wrong for us.Aftyer the rain and thunderstorms passed us and it as obvious that we were not getting anything as lowering temps and dewpoints were happening,the NWS Still insisted on keeping the WSW up to well after midnight,although they did lower the amounts to 4-8 inches.

[JBG]

The next day temps reached the low 80s but dropped into the 40s by evening as a sharp cold front went through.That is the most dramatic temp drop for SEPT I can ever remember.

I remember temps in the low 80's around 11:00 a.m. that Saturday morning. Cold FROPA occurred shortly thereafter and I think I remember it being around 60 or so by 2:00 p.m.

Edited to add link to day's weather (link).

[CAT5ANDREW]

I remember temps in the low 80's around 11:00 a.m.  that Saturday morning. Cold FROPA occurred shortly thereafter and I think I remember it being around 60 or so by 2:00 p.m.

the temp bottomed out in the mid 40s late that Saturday night,I dont know the exact temp,43 or 44 but it was definetly in the 40s.

[JBG]

the temp bottomed out in the mid 40s late that Saturday night,I dont know the exact temp,43 or 44 but it was definetly in the 40s.

Your memory was right. I added a link to the day's weather.

[Stormlover74]

Maybe further north, but I distinctly remember 4 to 8 being the forecast for NE NJ and the city. Regardless it was a bust :-)

It did turn to snow after midnight as the colder air rushed in but not nearly enough to even dust the ground. I do remember being down in south Jersey that weekend though as well as on Christmas and they had snow on the ground, though not sure from what storm.

The NWS had us in a 8-12 inch snowfall.It was a Miller B type setup which obviously went horribly wrong for us.Aftyer the rain and thunderstorms passed us and it as obvious that we were not getting anything as lowering temps and dewpoints were happening,the NWS Still insisted on keeping the WSW up to well after midnight,although they did lower the amounts to 4-8 inches.

[CAT5ANDREW]

Maybe further north, but I distinctly remember 4 to 8 being the forecast for NE NJ and the city. Regardless it was a bust :-)It did turn to snow after midnight as the colder air rushed in but not nearly enough to even dust the ground. I do remember being down in south Jersey that weekend though as well as on Christmas and they had snow on the ground, though not sure from what storm.

THe biggest snowfall we had that month was a 2.5 incher here at the very end of December from a warm front that for all intense purposes ended winter.

[Stormlover74]

Yeah and I didnt' even get that. We had rain and 33 for about 2 days straight. Had a surprise wet snow even first week of January where it kept going back and forth between snow and rain. I dont think it snowed again until a potent clipper at the end of Feb and then of course the surprise March storm which was followed by mid 80s a week later and then more snow in early April.

The fall of 90 was also a wild weather season. We had a tornado that October and then some of the craziest winds I've ever seen around that Veteran's day. All night long winds were howling 50 to 60 mph

THe biggest snowfall we had that month was a 2.5 incher here at the very end of December from a warm front that for all intense purposes ended winter.

[KEITH L.I]

1989 was an absolute nightmare for forecasters in the NYC area minus the Thanksgiving day snow event which given it was 1989 and our best models were the LFM and NGM was very well forecast from several days out. Outside of that we had the notorious 2/23/89 bust, the missed snow event on March 6th or 7th which dropped over 6 inches in some areas of NJ and was more or less completely unforecast, the epic damaging late November squall line which was also generally unforecast despite the fact quite a bit of severe weather had been occurring along the boundary earlier in the day and the day prior in the Great Lakes, and of course we capped it all off with the disaster that was 12/15/89 and about 3 other snow events that never were in December 1989.

December 89 was a perfect pattern for snow in the tristate..except every situation was a bust

...we were in the middle of one of our biggest snow droughts

[KEITH L.I]

12/15/89 was as epic a snow bust we ever had here.Near Blizzard conditions with a foo of snow was predicted and Winter Storm Warnings were in effect.I did not receive a single flake.

We came thisclose to having a repeat on 12/19/09.People dont realize how close we were to an epic bust that day.I am shocked and happy with the 14 inches I got in that storm.

yep the dreaded east wind..had about 10 mins of wet snow..followed by 2 hours of steady rain,then it turned bitter cold

[SnowGoose69]

yep the dreaded east wind..had about 10 mins of wet snow..followed by 2 hours of steady rain,then it turned bitter cold

The synoptic setup at 500mb was clear that it was not favorable for a coastal snow event. The ridge was positioned much too far off the West Coast...of course the problem even in those days when the models were not very good was that forecasters did not look at those things as much as they should. You can get big snow events here with ridges over the Plains or off the West Coast but alot needs to go right.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1989/us1216.php

[Stormlover74]

Yeah the bizarre thing was they were hyping the event early on in the week and there was no mention of any chance of a changeover or mix or anything. Just a quick hitting heavy snow event dumping 4 to 8" followed by a major cold snap ensuring a white christmas. I remember when the snow started even though it had been in the 20s all day it wasn't sticking. Then all of a sudden it was this heavy windswept rain. Not having computers or access to radar or anything (we didn't even get TWC in my area until 1990) there was no way to really track what was happening. It was after 7 so the local news was over so I had to wait until the 10:00 news to see what happened and if and when it was finally going to change back to snow.

The synoptic setup at 500mb was clear that it was not favorable for a coastal snow event. The ridge was positioned much too far off the West Coast...of course the problem even in those days when the models were not very good was that forecasters did not look at those things as much as they should. You can get big snow events here with ridges over the Plains or off the West Coast but alot needs to go right.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1989/us1216.php

[uncle W]

I remember the mid December 1989 fiasco...We were getting se winds and I thought something was going wrong...Earlier that month an off shore storm came close enough to give us a dusting...This was not forecasted either...1989 had its share of forecast busts...