wxmx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 12z UKMET: http://www.meteociel...h=72&carte=1021 http://meteocentre.c...&map=na〈=en It's similar to yesterdays, but it now shows the ridge building on time and shoves it SW after reaching 25N....that plus the current Euro run pretty much gives a boost to the MX landfall. BTW Euro is significantly SW of the 0z run. It's rather intense also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Trough lifting and ridge building to the NW... it will probably push it SW by day 5. 964mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Into Mexico oh 200? miles south of Brownsville at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 OK, so now only the CMC shows a US landfall. Therefore I will stick to my 70% chance MX, 30% US. I will likely increase the odds for MX if trends hold I'm out, see you for tonight's runs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Yeah, the key here is that the initial organization over the next couple of days is weaker and much farther west than where it was initially showing it. That enables it to stay slower and more to the west. At 96 hours it's kind of in the deal that Lee was where it's in a col. The difference is, the trough is filling rather than digging now, which could enable the turn more to the west into N Mexico or southern TX. It's a Mexico landfall, but for a much different reason than the GFS. I think it in many ways reinforces what we say so often on the tropical boards - until we have a system we can track, the forecast is usually low confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 OK, so now only the CMC shows a US landfall. Therefore I will stick to my 70% chance MX, 30% US. I will likely increase the odds for MX if trends hold I'm out, see you for tonight's runs.... And I am still hoping you're right. And I will stick with 60% US and 40% Mexico - but if it goes into S TX, I get a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Now that I can see some higher resolution data, it's not much weaker, the key is how much farther west it is in the next couple of days. It ends up about 3-4 degrees west in 48-72 hours than the earlier runs, which enables it to end up being far enough west to miss the trough, even with it digging a little farther west than earlier runs. Needless to say, we need to watch closely where it evolves in the shorter term. I have to admit (and I guess this is obvious based on all of my analysis today) I am not yet sold on this. The EC has tried to make these west turn with a few different systems this year, including most recently with Katia, that never really materialized. It's the typical close call which could still go either way - will be interested to see if the EC ensembles remain split. Hopefully for TX sake it will be right, I am sure S TX would love the rain they would get on the north side of a EC solution. And Josh - I wasn't too far off on what I told you the EC would show! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 With the trough lifting/filling and the ridge building to it's NW, almost all models (not the CMC of course) show some S component of the motion prior to the landfall. Think drought and 1936 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Now that I can see some higher resolution data, it's not much weaker, the key is how much farther west it is in the next couple of days. It ends up about 3-4 degrees west in 48-72 hours than the earlier runs, which enables it to end up being far enough west to miss the trough, even with it digging a little farther west than earlier runs. Needless to say, we need to watch closely where it evolves in the shorter term. I have to admit (and I guess this is obvious based on all of my analysis today) I am not yet sold on this. The EC has tried to make these west turn with a few different systems this year, including most recently with Katia, that never really materialized. It's the typical close call which could still go either way - will be interested to see if the EC ensembles remain split. Hopefully for TX sake it will be right, I am sure S TX would love the rain they would get on the north side of a EC solution. And Josh - I wasn't too far off on what I told you the EC would show! The ECWMF doesn't surprise me in the least, and it seems to be catching on to the more progressive nature of the upper level trough, as well as the additional riding that was suggested by the +SOI anomalies the last few days. In essence, my thoughts from last night seem to be verifying in the modeling today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 7, 2011 Author Share Posted September 7, 2011 Hopefully for TX sake it will be right, I am sure S TX would love the rain they would get on the north side of a EC solution. And Josh - I wasn't too far off on what I told you the EC would show! Yeah, totally. Nice going. This aside... This has been an awesome thread so far-- just packed with interesting discussion. I think these deep-Gulf systems slip below the radar of all but the real tropical nerds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 This has been an awesome thread so far-- just packed with interesting discussion. Definitely agree. I've been just lurking for now, but great to see the discussion, and some quality points from quality folks in favor of each track idea. I had been slightly favoring the north-northeast path (55/45 or so), but looks like I may need a re-think after tonight's runs, though I would also urge some caution until the center's location is undeniably clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Yeah, totally. Nice going. This aside... This has been an awesome thread so far-- just packed with interesting discussion. I think these deep-Gulf systems slip below the radar of all but the real tropical nerds. Well, I anyway am a nerd - just not sure about a tropical type, LOL. This will be an interesting system to watch from so many angles. Just looking at the climatology, from what I can see every system that was a hurricane in the 25/95 20/90 5x5 box that went into northern Mexico did so while moving almost due west or west-northwest. Any system that obtained a decent poleward motion ended up going somewhere into the TX/LA area. So that will definitely be something to watch, how the system moves, and if it does do what the ECMWF suggests, it will be a unique storm from a climo perspective (which would be cool in itself). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 The ECWMF doesn't surprise me in the least, and it seems to be catching on to the more progressive nature of the upper level trough, as well as the additional riding that was suggested by the +SOI anomalies the last few days. In essence, my thoughts from last night seem to be verifying in the modeling today. Hopefully, it will keep up. Know this is slightly OT, but want to compliment you on your discussions and forecasts of Katia. Well done... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Definitely agree. I've been just lurking for now, but great to see the discussion, and some quality points from quality folks in favor of each track idea. I had been slightly favoring the north-northeast path (55/45 or so), but looks like I may need a re-think after tonight's runs, though I would also urge some caution until the center's location is undeniably clear. I agree as well. Kudos gang for keeping the discussions lively and informative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 With the trough lifting/filling and the ridge building to it's NW, almost all models (not the CMC of course) show some S component of the motion prior to the landfall. Think drought and 1936 I see what you mean about 1936, LOL! But one thing I would caution is three of those four systems were before September, from my experience it seems like it is hard to get systems to make those SW bends once you get past the peak of summer ridges in July/August. The models tried to do that with Katia and Lee at times, and it never materialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Methinks I see a good low level center organizing now around 20N, 92.8W. Curved band S of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 7, 2011 Author Share Posted September 7, 2011 Well, I anyway am a nerd - just not sure about a tropical type, LOL. Oh, I think you are. (Just to clarify, "tropical nerd" is a deep compliment coming from me. ) This will be an interesting system to watch from so many angles. Just looking at the climatology, from what I can see every system that was a hurricane in the 25/95 20/90 5x5 box that went into northern Mexico did so while moving almost due west or west-northwest. Any system that obtained a decent poleward motion ended up going somewhere into the TX/LA area. So that will definitely be something to watch, how the system moves, and if it does do what the ECMWF suggests, it will be a unique storm from a climo perspective (which would be cool in itself). Yeah, I can't think of a hurricane offhand that approached the MX coast at that angle. I actually prefer more of a clean W heading-- for obvious reasons-- but that's beside the point. These Bay of Campeche cyclones are always very difficult from a chase perspective. They tend to be small and they tend to spin up quickly, very close to the coast, and by the time one looks to be sure chase material, it's already moving ashore. My past BoC chases (Bret 1999 and Karl 2010) were awful rush jobs. Ugh. Anyhoo, sorry to go OT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Hopefully, it will keep up. Know this is slightly OT, but want to compliment you on your discussions and forecasts of Katia. Well done... Methinks I see a good low level center organizing now around 20N, 92.8W. Curved band S of the center. Nice of you to say that... thanks recon is going in for a center pass, it should reveal if the circulation on visible is the true center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I see what you mean about 1936, LOL! But one thing I would caution is three of those four systems were before September, from my experience it seems like it is hard to get systems to make those SW bends once you get past the peak of summer ridges in July/August. The models tried to do that with Katia and Lee at times, and it never materialized. Yep, you are right about September...but when they happen, they can get pretty interesting, like in 1966 and 1977 (extreme cases, of course)... though model support for an eventual SW jog before landfall is increasing and synoptically sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 7, 2011 Author Share Posted September 7, 2011 Yep, you are right about September...but when they happen, they can get pretty interesting, like in 1966 and 1977 (extreme cases, of course)... though model support for an eventual SW jog before landfall is increasing and synoptically sound. Dude, do not even go there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Pressure looks to be in the 1004mb range, large region of light SE winds north of 20.3N. Inbound the peak winds were 30kt (SFMR 31kt). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Dude, do not even go there! Normally I'd be totally against shouting out analogs of cat 5 storms, but there is plenty of reason to be excited given the upper level pattern and thermodynamic environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Looks like the center is around 20.2N 92.5W, at least that is where recon found the windshift, though center is likely elongated based on the inbound leg. Winds out of the west South of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Normally I'd be totally against shouting out analogs of cat 5 storms, but there is plenty of reason to be excited given the upper level pattern and thermodynamic environment. I was analoguing track, and to some extent, strengthening, more than explosive intensification...though, I don't discard it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I was analoguing track, and to some extent, strengthening, more than explosive intensification...though, I don't discard it. Of course... another good analog I believe(although this wasn't a GOM storm) is Beta (2005). Initial northward track than a turn west to west-southwest before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Yep, you are right about September...but when they happen, they can get pretty interesting, like in 1966 and 1977 (extreme cases, of course)... though model support for an eventual SW jog before landfall is increasing and synoptically sound. Sure, no disagreement. Have been looking very closely at the new ECMWF data, and I feel a little moronic for focusing so much on how far N or S the system might develop that I did not really consider how much a more westward development/movement in the short term could make. Clearly, a few degrees west or east could be the difference between this system getting picked up or not. I mean it just barely gets missed by the trough, and clearly the fact that the trough is deamplifying helps in that evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 53kt west winds found by recon, wide area of 45kt+. SFMR hits 44kt unflagged 191030 1955N 09253W 9751 00266 //// +235 //// 260015 017 020 001 01 191100 1953N 09254W 9737 00280 //// +235 //// 257017 017 023 000 01 191130 1952N 09254W 9763 00257 //// +236 //// 256019 020 024 000 01 191200 1950N 09255W 9771 00251 //// +235 //// 259021 022 025 000 05 191230 1949N 09255W 9767 00253 //// +234 //// 263025 027 027 000 01 191300 1947N 09255W 9795 00229 //// +228 //// 263031 033 032 002 05 191330 1946N 09256W 9788 00235 //// +228 //// 264034 036 034 002 05 191400 1944N 09256W 9784 00241 //// +226 //// 261039 040 037 000 05 191430 1943N 09256W 9866 00167 //// +228 //// 261041 041 037 001 01 191500 1942N 09256W 9904 00134 //// +230 //// 261043 044 040 003 05 191530 1940N 09256W 9901 00136 //// +227 //// 262044 046 041 001 05 191600 1939N 09256W 9891 00145 //// +225 //// 262047 049 044 003 05 191630 1937N 09257W 9884 00151 //// +220 //// 263049 051 044 000 05 191700 1936N 09257W 9875 00162 //// +215 //// 269051 053 045 001 05 191730 1934N 09257W 9893 00146 //// +222 //// 269049 051 042 003 05 191800 1932N 09257W 9896 00142 //// +220 //// 269047 050 041 006 01 191830 1931N 09257W 9901 00141 //// +220 //// 268045 045 039 004 05 191900 1929N 09257W 9892 00149 //// +220 //// 268045 047 044 002 01 191930 1928N 09257W 9893 00150 //// +217 //// 270046 047 044 006 01 192000 1926N 09257W 9904 00139 //// +217 //// 272046 047 046 010 05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 There's definitely some elongation, but I think recon data supports an upgrade to TD (Edit: or a TS ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 There's definitely some elongation, but I think recon data supports an upgrade to TD. Or a TS given the SFMR ans Flight Level wind support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Looks like we will have Tropical Storm Nate at 5pm. AL, 15, 2011090718, , BEST, 0, 201N, 929W, 40, 1004, TS, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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