HurricaneJosh Posted September 7, 2011 Author Share Posted September 7, 2011 Ugh, it's almost sickening that we're talking about such cool, dry air in the W Gulf at peak season. Wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 12Z CMC sticks to its guns.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Big difference in the CMC and GFS initializations...hopefully recon can enlighten us in this respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Just looking at visible imagery right now, the center is established, but not very well defined yet, with what appear to be multiple vorticities associated with the circulation. However, this still looks better than what Lee had going for it when it became a designated depression after recon investigated. Thus, I think the chances of this system being declared a tropical cyclone are high, although development in the first 12-24 hours will likely be slow given the fact that a well defined circulation hasn't become established yet. For those worried about the effects of the dry air on the northwest flank of the storm, I see no evidence of arc clouds or cold downdrafts that are impeding the progress of development at this time. As CUmet mentioned, as long as the vertical wind shear remains low over the system, its unlikely we will see much if any dry air be directly ingested into the circulation and the only major impact I see it having is restricting the size of the circulation. I think rapid intensification is possible after the system obtains a well defined circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 If it can get an organized core and set itself up under an area of weak shear, then ya, it would be able to fend off any dry air nearby. I think the main difference between our opinions is that I am skeptical that it ever does get that well-organized. Fair enough, it can certainly happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Just looking at visible imagery right now, the center is established, but not very well defined yet, with what appear to be multiple vorticities associated with the circulation. However, this still looks better than what Lee had going for it when it became a designated depression after recon investigated. Thus, I think the chances of this system being declared a tropical cyclone are high, although development in the first 12-24 hours will likely be slow given the fact that a well defined circulation hasn't become established yet. For those worried about the effects of the dry air on the northwest flank of the storm, I see no evidence of arc clouds or cold downdrafts that are impeding the progress of development at this time. As CUmet mentioned, as long as the vertical wind shear remains low over the system, its unlikely we will see much if any dry air be directly ingested into the circulation. I think rapid intensification is possible after the system obtained a well defined circulation. I agree re: shear and dry air... with the latent heat released, dry air is gonna be modified before it gets into the center...unless there's shear present, which would speed the intrusion without the proper modification...though that process "burns" the available moisture, hence the smaller moisture shield. Also, agreed about the multiple vorticities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I feel more confident in things and at least the different possibilities of how things may evolve. All of the models that make this a robust system (new 12Z UK and Canadian and 00Z EC) develop the system farther north and then move it to the north. I think if it's going to be a robust system it will have to do that because that is how it can be in a favorable shear pattern. If the system evolves farther S where the GFS has it it will be under northerly shear in the short term and never have a chance to get its act together. It seems clear the main reason the GFS has its solution is that it essentially keeps the system too shallow to be affected by the trough. So to me, it's one of two options: it become an intense system and moves toward the NC/NE Gulf Coast, or it remains a weak system and stays down in the southern Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 7, 2011 Author Share Posted September 7, 2011 I feel more confident in things and at least the different possibilities of how things may evolve. All of the models that make this a robust system (new 12Z UK and Canadian and 00Z EC) develop the system farther north and then move it to the north. I think if it's going to be a robust system it will have to do that because that is how it can be in a favorable shear pattern. If the system evolves farther S where the GFS has it it will be under northerly shear in the short term and never have a chance to get its act together. It seems clear the main reason the GFS has its solution is that it essentially keeps the system too shallow to be affected by the trough. So to me, it's one of two options: it become an intense system and moves toward the NC/NE Gulf Coast, or it remains a weak system and stays down in the southern Gulf. Very interesting. So, in this strong/N-or-weak/S duality, an intense MX landfall would seem unlikely to you, I take it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Judging from how easily the convection is bubbling up around the center, I think the air inside the pouch is pretty loaded with moisture, and the environmental dry air doesn't seem to be having any effect right now. If anything (and this is somewhat speculation on my part), the dry air might be helping things by allowing the convection to occur only in the area that would actually help vortex intensification, as opposed to hundreds of km away in the outer fringes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I feel more confident in things and at least the different possibilities of how things may evolve. All of the models that make this a robust system (new 12Z UK and Canadian and 00Z EC) develop the system farther north and then move it to the north. I think if it's going to be a robust system it will have to do that because that is how it can be in a favorable shear pattern. If the system evolves farther S where the GFS has it it will be under northerly shear in the short term and never have a chance to get its act together. It seems clear the main reason the GFS has its solution is that it essentially keeps the system too shallow to be affected by the trough. So to me, it's one of two options: it become an intense system and moves toward the NC/NE Gulf Coast, or it remains a weak system and stays down in the southern Gulf. I agree for the first 48-72 hours... after that the trough could start lifting and ridge could build behind it and the cyclone could strenghten quite rapidly without being pulled NE ... but now the GFS is the lonely outlier (globals), which gives the NE solution a boost (though the Ukie is left meandering around 25N with some ridging building to it's NW...). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I agree re: shear and dry air... with the latent heat released, dry air is gonna be modified before it gets into the center...unless there's shear present, which would speed the intrusion without the proper modification...though that process "burns" the available moisture, hence the smaller moisture shield. Also, agreed about the multiple vorticities. But I can see it pulling in cold stable air on the visible. I think there is a front still deeply involved. I can maybe see talk the little vort North of Cd. del Carmen may not be frontal, but there is a front down in the broader disturbance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Another thought about the GFS and intensity. Globals tend to weaken open the circulation before landfalls in this region, leaving a trough of low pressure in the SW GOM, happened with Arlene, and to some extent with Alex... if it fails to gain much latitude...ie LF below 20N, then orography might be a con, just like Karl, especially in a slow moving system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Very interesting. So, in this strong/N-or-weak/S duality, an intense MX landfall would seem unlikely to you, I take it? That's my opinion, but of course the 12Z EC will probably come in with a 950 mb low going into Tampico. It just seems to me that why the GFS is so far SW is because it really doesn't have much of a system. It tries to develop something way down by the coast in the deep S BOC where currently there is quite strong northerly shear. Because of that, it never really gets its act together (briefly has a 1004 mb center, but then weakens it quickly). The models also seem to be trending toward the EC idea of the mid/upper level low over the Midwest being farther WSW, with a lobe of height falls rotating into the Arklatex in the day 3-5 timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 But I can see it pulling in cold stable air on the visible. I think there is a front still deeply involved. I can maybe see talk the little vort North of Cd. del Carmen may not be frontal, but there is a front down in the broader disturbance. Yep, but it gets modified pretty soon, as you can see with the bubbling convection that CUMet pointed out... yep, this disturbance is an offspring of a cold front, and the trough associated with it could be a very nice outflow channel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 The SE vortex looks to be the dominant one, and that would be a point for the GFS vs the CMC. I think the LLC could be relocated to around 19.5N 92W in the next BT update (it's elongated from the NE-SW). Edit: Or when recon reports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 But I can see it pulling in cold stable air on the visible. I think there is a front still deeply involved. I can maybe see talk the little vort North of Cd. del Carmen may not be frontal, but there is a front down in the broader disturbance. The low level inflow is certainly pulling in the dry air, but it undergoes significant modification before it makes it into the center thanks to ample deep convection. Another thought about the GFS and intensity. Globals tend to weaken open the circulation before landfalls in this region, leaving a trough of low pressure in the SW GOM, happened with Arlene, and to some extent with Alex... if it fails to gain much latitude...ie LF below 20N, then orography might be a con, just like Karl, especially in a slow moving system. Honestly, I think this only negative thing at this time that could prevent this system from becoming a formidable hurricane. I think 96L will be able to gain some latitude, but how much before the system takes a westward turn remains a big question. Of course this is even assuming that the upper level trough to the north doesn't pick up the system. However, I am continuing to grow more confident that this solution won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 The SE vortex looks to be the dominant one, and that would be a point for the GFS vs the CMC. I think the LLC could be relocated to around 19.5N 92W in the next BT update (it's pretty elongated from the NE-SW). LOL, I was just about to say that it looked to me like banding was consolidating around the center you guys gave me a little bit ago. I have the primary center around 20.3N, 93W. But there are definitely multiple vorticity maxima right now, so who really knows... BTW, do you have the 12Z UK beyond 72 hours? I have it out to 72 and at that time it is showing it at 23.8N, 93W at 998 mb, moving 350/6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 12Z CMC sticks to its guns.... Yeah, it actually shifted a bit west with the upper low over the Midwest and the associated LF point. Went from PNS to MOB/PQL (after grazing the mouth of the MS River). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 FWIW, the 9/7 6z run of the experimental T574 GFS/EnkF Control and also the 12z GGEM take 96L on a track quite close to that shown on the 9/7 0z run of the ECMWF. The 12z operational GFS maintains its track into Mexico. The NAM is somewhere between the GFS and the Euro/GFS EnkF/GGEM at the end of its timeframe. I suspect that given the very weak steering currents, the higher-resolution modeling might be a bit closer to the ultimate track 96L will take, hence I lean toward the Euro. The forthcoming run of the ECMWF will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 LOL, I was just about to say that it looked to me like banding was consolidating around the center you guys gave me a little bit ago. I have the primary center around 20.3N, 93W. But there are definitely multiple vorticity maxima right now, so who really knows... BTW, do you have the 12Z UK beyond 72 hours? I have it out to 72 and at that time it is showing it at 23.8N, 93W at 998 mb, moving 350/6. sure http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHEMI_12z/ukloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 sure http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHEMI_12z/ukloop.html That is still yesterday's run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 sure http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKHEMI_12z/ukloop.html Thanks, but sorry, I meant the new 12Z run. I can get it beyond 72 hours, it's just not in yet. The link you sent me is still yesterday's 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Thanks, but sorry, I meant the new 12Z run. I can get it beyond 72 hours, it's just not in yet. The link you sent me is still yesterday's 12Z run. Doh!,... no other linky, sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Doh!,... no other linky, sorry No prob. BTW, new EC in through 24 hours. A hair S (about a quarter of deg) and a bit deeper (1002 versus 1005 mb) than previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 The Euro is SW of the 00Z run at 48 hours, well SW of the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 12z UKMET: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=72&carte=1021 http://meteocentre.com/models/get_panel.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNM&map=na〈=en Thanks, but sorry, I meant the new 12Z run. I can get it beyond 72 hours, it's just not in yet. The link you sent me is still yesterday's 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 The Euro is SW of the 00Z run at 48 hours, well SW of the CMC Actually, my data shows it's a bit WNW of the 00Z run at 48 hours, and about 10-12 mb weaker (which is more important I think). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Actually, my data shows it's a bit WNW of the 00Z run at 48 hours, and about 10-12 mb weaker (which is more important I think). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 At 84, Euro has it stalled SE of Brownsville, WSW of the 12Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Actually, my data shows it's a bit WNW of the 00Z run at 48 hours, and about 10-12 mb weaker (which is more important I think). It looked SW to me too. Either way, it definitely is by day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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