wxmx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 We should do a tropic guys spaghetti graph.... It would probably be a another smashed spider plot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 CUMet, where do you think the center of the low level vorticity is right now? BTW, FWIW, the new NAM has this as a 951 mb (!) hurricane at 23.7N, 94.1W at 84 hours, moving slowly N. Best track has it at 20.3N 93.4W ... drifting SSE ... and looking at the visible, I would agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I also agree with CUMet that future Nate is organizing quite nicely... recon should find a closed low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 CUMet, where do you think the center of the low level vorticity is right now? My best guess is about 20.2N 93.5W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 My best guess is about 20.2N 93.5W If it's that far N, then it raises some flags about the GFS forecast as wxmx says. Even the new 12Z GFS shows it almost of the coast of Mexico down around 19N at 24 hours (at least as far as the 850 mb vorticity). It is a bit stronger than the previous run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 If it's that far N, then it raises some flags about the GFS forecast as wxmx says. Even the new 12Z GFS shows it almost of the coast of Mexico down around 19N at 24 hours (at least as far as the 850 mb vorticity). It is a bit stronger than the previous run though. If it's going to develop as quickly as the vibe seems to be, then you would have to think the ECMWF has more validity at least in the shorter term. It shows a 991 mb low around 21N, 93W tomorrow evening at 00Z, while the new GFS has a 1008 mb low way down in the BOC around 19.5N, 94W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I like how the GFS sacrifices a piece of energy to appease the westerly gods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I like how the GFS sacrifices a piece of energy to appease the westerly gods I noticed that too, LOL. It's bound and determined to keep it down in the BOC. If it develops as slowly and as far S as it shows it initially, maybe it can be right. It is lower with the 500 mb heights over the northern and western Gulf through 48 hours though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 The 12Z GFS has it almost inland at 48 hours. Looks like it is favoring a SSE track in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 If it's going to develop as quickly as the vibe seems to be, then you would have to think the ECMWF has more validity at least in the shorter term. It shows a 991 mb low around 21N, 93W tomorrow evening at 00Z, while the new GFS has a 1008 mb low way down in the BOC around 19.5N, 94W. Yep, the farther north cyclogenesis would be a point towards the Euro/CMC solutions... but visible shows that, like expected, it will probably be a very compact storm, so even a 1 degree gap is not a sufficient requirement to pull the disturbance north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Yep, the farther north cyclogenesis would be a point towards the Euro/CMC solutions... but visible shows that, like expected, it will probably be a very compact storm, so even a 1 degree gap is not a sufficient requirement to pull the disturbance north. True, but I think we may be talking about more than a 1 degree gap. The new GFS seems to be focusing the development almost on the coast in the far southern BOC, while the EC is more west of the NW tip of the Yucatan. The GFS is definitely trending, though, with lower heights in the base of the trough over the Arklatex and over the Gulf in the ridging N of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 That is a deep SW flow all across the Gulf on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 True, but I think we may be talking about more than a 1 degree gap. The new GFS seems to be focusing the development almost on the coast in the far southern BOC, while the EC is more west of the NW tip of the Yucatan. The GFS is definitely trending, though, with lower heights in the base of the trough over the Arklatex and over the Gulf in the ridging N of the system. But just after you said that, the GFS trends further south with the storm... "Euro, your move" ... while on the next table Ukie and CMC are trying to trick each other into a Scholar's mate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 The GFS is actually south of its previous run, and there is not any significant difference that I see in the northern trough. The position of the low initially is critical, bit so far I see nothing to change my mind yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 That is a deep SW flow all across the Gulf on the 12z GFS Yeah, the new GFS has trended deeper and SW with the upper low over the Midwest and has it centered near KCGI at 84 hours instead of over southern Indiana on the 00Z run. This 12Z run moves it west because it never gets it robust and it basically just kills it over the BOC (it never makes landfall, just becomes an open wave at 102 hours). If it becomes an intense system like many on here (and several of the models) show, I don't see how this pattern as shown above can support anything other than a N/NE movement. If it stays weaker or just like a microcane (or forms way down near the coast), then maybe it can stay on the southern track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 The GFS is actually south of its previous run, and there is not any significant difference that I see in the northern trough. The position of the low initially is critical, bit so far I see nothing to change my mind yet. I have to disagree about the northern trough. I think there is a rather substantial difference in the position of the 500 mb low at 00Z Sunday and the depth of the heights over the MS Valley (at least compared to the 00Z run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I don't think this develops quickly enough to really feel the pull northward. The TPW loop Ed posted earlier illustrates just how dry the airmass in the northwest Gulf is. I don't see how this system develops quickly with that much exceptionally dry air all around its northwest side... and if there's barely a system to begin with, the (largely upper-level) tug northward probably won't materialize. Yeah, the new GFS has trended deeper and SW with the upper low over the Midwest and has it centered near KCGI at 84 hours instead of over southern Indiana on the 00Z run. This 12Z run moves it west because it never gets it robust and it basically just kills it over the BOC (it never makes landfall, just becomes an open wave at 102 hours). If it becomes an intense system like many on here (and several of the models) show, I don't see how this pattern as shown above can support anything other than a N/NE movement. If it stays weaker or just like a microcane (or forms way down near the coast), then maybe it can stay on the southern track. Agreed, but put me down for the weak/south solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Yeah, the new GFS has trended deeper and SW with the upper low over the Midwest and has it centered near KCGI at 84 hours instead of over southern Indiana on the 00Z run. This 12Z run moves it west because it never gets it robust and it basically just kills it over the BOC (it never makes landfall, just becomes an open wave at 102 hours). If it becomes an intense system like many on here (and several of the models) show, I don't see how this pattern as shown above can support anything other than a N/NE movement. If it stays weaker or just like a microcane (or forms way down near the coast), then maybe it can stay on the southern track. Looking at the higher resolution map, it looks like there's not a robust SW-NE flow, it looks trapped between the W Atl and MX ridges... if it were at 23N, then yes, it would be pulled NE without doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I don't think this develops quickly enough to really feel the pull northward. The TPW loop Ed posted earlier illustrates just how dry the airmass in the northwest Gulf is. I don't see how this system develops quickly with that much exceptionally dry air all around its northwest side... and if there's barely a system to begin with, the (largely upper-level) tug northward probably won't materialize. Agreed, but put me down for the weak/south solution. Oh, I agree. If it stays weak, it stays south. But several people that I respect (including on this board) are very bullish about the intensity - and if it gets intense and develops where the visible seems to be showing an increasing LLC around like 20.5N, then I think it will be very hard to stay S. But just IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Looking at the higher resolution map, it looks like there's not a robust SW-NE flow, it looks trapped between the W Atl and MX ridges... if it were at 23N, then yes, it would be pulled NE without doubt. Again, though, this is where the intensity comes in. If it's a weak shallow system like the GFS shows, it can stay S. But if it's already an intense system by this time, then the higher level flow is definitely well developed from the SW, which I think would carry the system more into the trough. Maybe that's more the difference in the models - intensity rather than track. Obviously, how and where it forms and develops will be key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Oh, I agree. If it stays weak, it stays south. But several people that I respect (including on this board) are very bullish about the intensity - and if it gets intense and develops where the visible seems to be showing an increasing LLC around like 20.5N, then I think it will be very hard to stay S. But just IMO. I'm bullish, but just after 48 hours... the latest visible shows there might be multiple vortices... at least one further SE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 This is what I mean about the higher level flow. If it becomes a deep system, the upper level flow will play more of a role in the motion. And the GFS shows 250 mb SW flow well established all the way down into the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I'm bullish, but just after 48 hours... the latest visible shows there might be multiple vortices... at least one further SE... The thing that concerns me is that dewpoints in Houston right now are in the mid 40s (F) and dropping (RH is 28% right now). All that dry air is just pouring into the NW Gulf right now. Even New Orleans has dewpoints in the 50s. Exceptionally dry for that area for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 The thing that concerns me is that dewpoints in Houston right now are in the mid 40s (F) and dropping (RH is 28% right now). All that dry air is just pouring into the NW Gulf right now. Even New Orleans has dewpoints in the 50s. Exceptionally dry for that area for this time of year. The good thing is that any shear wont be from the NW or N... but from the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rgb-s.html I think it starts life as a sub-tropical system, no way there isn't a front in there with what looks like post frontal shallow cumulus as cooler air moves over warm water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 The good thing is that any shear wont be from the NW or N... but from the SW. True... but the dry air will still get ingested. In fact, there's already a bunch of it on the west side of the system. Dewpoints have even fallen into the 60s in Tampico, are in the upper 60s at Poza Rica, and were in the 60s in Veracruz this morning... I'm no expert on climate in the Gulf Coast of Mexico in early September, but I have to imagine that's much drier than normal there. EDIT: That being said, I suppose I could see something like Lee develop, with an almost extratropical look to it due to the dry air impinging on the western side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 The thing that concerns me is that dewpoints in Houston right now are in the mid 40s (F) and dropping (RH is 28% right now). All that dry air is just pouring into the NW Gulf right now. Even New Orleans has dewpoints in the 50s. Exceptionally dry for that area for this time of year. HGX morning disco mentioned a weak reinforcement of the dry and cool air is coming. Record lows around the HOU area today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 It would appear that Recon is in the air and on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 True... but the dry air will still get ingested. In fact, there's already a bunch of it on the west side of the system. Dewpoints have even fallen into the 60s in Tampico, are in the upper 60s at Poza Rica, and were in the 60s in Veracruz this morning... I'm no expert on climate in the Gulf Coast of Mexico in early September, but I have to imagine that's much drier than normal there. EDIT: That being said, I suppose I could see something like Lee develop, with an almost extratropical look to it due to the dry air impinging on the western side. I agree, but I think we are talking about two different things. You are saying that dry air might delay any strengthening in the short term, which I agree with... what I'm saying is that after a core consolidates, and if there's little shear, it wont matter much, other than the cloud/moisture shield size, and rapid intensification will be possible... I disagree with the subtropical stuff.. unless it heads NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I agree, but I think we are talking about two different things. You are saying that dry air might delay any strengthening in the short term, which I agree with... what I'm saying is that after a core consolidates, and if there's little shear, it wont matter much, other than the cloud/moisture shield size, and rapid intensification will be possible... I disagree with the subtropical stuff.. unless it heads NE If it can get an organized core and set itself up under an area of weak shear, then ya, it would be able to fend off any dry air nearby. I think the main difference between our opinions is that I am skeptical that it ever does get that well-organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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