TS Nate

[HurricaneJosh]

GFS: no substantial change, stalls way down in the Gulf near Mexico, big difference from the Euro continues. Which model will blink first?

EDIT: LF in Mexico about 120 hrs....boooooooring...

Why is the MX landfall boring? If it's intense, I'll take it.

[wxmx]

0z CMC joins the Euro ... by 36 hours is N of 20N, while the GFS is closer to 18N

[wxmx]

0z early models

[HurricaneJosh]

Wtf? It's all over the place. Which solution are we buying?

[wxmx]

Wtf? It's all over the place. Which solution are we buying?

Whichever spins up a 120kts cyclone

[HurricaneJosh]

Whichever spins up a 120kts cyclone

[CooL]

0z early models

funny how the BAM family takes it SW into Mexico and everything else is either NW or N.

it will be interesting if the euro holds serve with a Louisiana cyclone.

[Cheeznado]

Wtf? It's all over the place. Which solution are we buying?

None yet- It will be close. The CMC coming around to a north track is a step to believing that solution. If the Euro sticks to its guns that is another step.

[NJwinter23]

This is some serious dry air! Exceptional drought conditions in Texas will do that I guess.

[NJwinter23]

00z euro is starting to inch a developed 96L northward by 60 hours

[HurricaneJosh]

This is some serious dry air! Exceptional drought conditions in Texas will do that I guess.

Yeah, wow-- that is off-the-charts dry. Oy. Hopefully it changes, or the system embeds itself in a moist envelope.

[HurricaneJosh]

It really looks to be taking shape tonight. I'm liking the convection and the general, vague turn to it:

[phil882]

Yeah, wow-- that is off-the-charts dry. Oy. Hopefully it changes, or the system embeds itself in a moist envelope.

I think CUmet put it best earlier... as long as the shear remains low (and thus far all the models seem to be in agreement on this) the main limiting factor it will induce is to prevent the storm from becoming too large, rather than substantially impacting intensity. Smaller storms don't need a large moisture envelope as long as the shear remains low.

[CooL]

Not sure on the strength but the euro still tracks 96L into the north-central GOM..Out to hr 126 and its 150 miles off the coast of louisiana.

150 -- Landfall on the central coast of Louisiana. With a stall over New Orleans thereafter.

[it*has*an*i]

UKMET pulling it northward as well @ 96h

Edit but trough misses at 120 and it turns back west

[phil882]

UKMET pulling it northward as well @ 96h

Edit but trough misses at 120 and it turns back west

This might not be as noticeable, but 96L misses the trough on the ECWMF. The trough is just too slow to move out before 96L makes landfall in Louisiana. The typical bias with the ECWMF is that its too slow with cutoff features. This, along with the +SOI the last 2-4 days and the predisposition to a La Nina regieme lead me to believe a track further west than the model suggests may certainly be possible. I'm starting to lean more strongly in that direction.

[wxmx]

Euro/CMC vs GFS/Ukie/HWRF/GFDL ... quite an even fight.

[wxmx]

In any case, this thread needs more porn

[wxsmwhrms]

NHC now has it as a cherry.

To me, the key as far as future track is still where does the LLC form and how does it behave in the next few days. If it can stay generally down in the BOC or at least well S in the Gulf, I can see how the trough could bypass it to the N. But if it gets up in the range of 24/25N, I just do not see how it can get missed by the trough. The EC ensemble out at 72-96 hours has a trough digging into the Arklatex with a huge ridge east of the system. That is not a setup that screams to me that a system over the Gulf is just going to sit there, unless it is way down in the Gulf. Really, the only guidance now that suggests the staying way down in the Gulf is the GFS and the guidance run off of it (I know the UK shows a turn back to the west, but if it gets as far N as the UK shows in 72-96 hours, I think the chances of that are pretty low). The EC/GGEM are now showing the northward movement, as are nearly all of the FIMY ensemble members (the GFS EnKF doesn't develop the system on the 00Z run) and an increasing number of the GFS ensemble members (I know the GEFS is not very helpful for TCs, but I still think an increasing number of solutions showing that northward movement is revealing in showing how the overall pattern is setting up in the model). Having said that as far as the guidance, still a number of the EC ensemble members look to keep it farther S, and I think it is still a possibility, if it can develop far enough S and not gain much latitude over the next few days.

[am19psu]

Euro/CMC vs GFS/Ukie/HWRF/GFDL ... quite an even fight.

With the Euro ensemble members split right down the middle.

[Ed Lizard]

With the Euro ensemble members split right down the middle.

I assumme binary between a Mexico landfall and a Central or Eastern Gulf solution. The Op Euro is almost a repeat of Lee, I'd hope a little less wind and fire threat locally.

[Ed Lizard]

Looks like dry and cool air may be an issue in early vis loops.

[Srain]

12Z...

[wxsmwhrms]

A couple of additional thoughts after looking at a few more things. The GFS ensemble mean 500 mb heights over the Gulf are about 20-30m lower than the op during the critical time period - obviously, if the heights are lower that makes the northern solution more likely. Conversely, I wonder if EC is not intensifying the system a little too rapidly given the amount of dry air down there right now - a little less robust solution would mean it might not get as involved with the deeper SW flow and give it a little more chance to turn west. Conflicting signals.

One more piece of evidence toward the northern solution, though, the 06Z GFS EnKF looks very similar to the 00Z op EC, only a little faster. Has it over the mouth of the MS River in 5 days as a 984 mb low. FWIW, the 06Z FIMY is even faster and farther E, with a 996 mb low near PNS at 108 hours.

[Cheeznado]

I am now leaning a lot more heavily towards the Mexico solution. The Euro has trended slower, the EC ensembles are generally south, the GFS has been very consistent and the UKMET is south, Right now I think the northern solution is only about 30%, into Mexico 70%. The 12Z Euro is important, it needs to trend back north for this solution to stay viable, a GFS trend north would be helpful also. (This from a person who is rooting for the northern track).

[wxmx]

I am now leaning a lot more heavily towards the Mexico solution. The Euro has trended slower, the EC ensembles are generally south, the GFS has been very consistent and the UKMET is south, Right now I think the northern solution is only about 30%, into Mexico 70%. The 12Z Euro is important, it needs to trend back north for this solution to stay viable, a GFS trend north would be helpful also. (This from a person who is rooting for the northern track).

I'm still a bit 50-50. The NCEP global models (NAM/GFS) have been initializing the 850mb vortex a bit too far south, near the deep S BoC, but it's probably closer to 20N, apparently (you never know with this elongated lows)... However I agree with you that yesterdays 12z Euro and probably today's 0z CMC were a bit too fast with the Nern movement, as it seems that it is in no hurry to move outside the BoC...but we'll see. First, let's see how the 12z guidance transpires. (This from a person who is rooting for the southern track ).

[wxsmwhrms]

I am now leaning a lot more heavily towards the Mexico solution. The Euro has trended slower, the EC ensembles are generally south, the GFS has been very consistent and the UKMET is south, Right now I think the northern solution is only about 30%, into Mexico 70%. The 12Z Euro is important, it needs to trend back north for this solution to stay viable, a GFS trend north would be helpful also. (This from a person who is rooting for the northern track).

LOL, I am rooting for the southern track, but I am actually opposite of you, I am thinking the more northern track is likely. The GFS is really the only model that is doing the west track into Mexico. I know the UK goes toward BRO, but that is after it goes north and I just cannot see a turn back to the west if it gets as far N as the UK shows. The EC, CMC, and the EnKF version of the GFS are all showing the northern track, and just from a synoptic perspective, to me the more northern track makes sense given the position of the ridge to the east and the trough coming down from the NW. I would actually probably go 60% northern Gulf track, 30% Mexico, and 10% some other weird thing. The southern track becomes more likely to me if it can form well down in the BOC and/or remains a very small storm.

But I hope you are right. :-)

[CUmet]

This will likely become a TD later this afternoon after recon investigates the area. The low-level vorticity is very well-defined and there is plenty of convection. Given the presence of dry air in the environment constricting the size of the storm, the high SST and decent oceanic heat content in the Bay of Campeche, and the low shear, this could spin up pretty quickly as many storms in this region have in the past. This is supported by all of the reliable global model guidance showing a quickly deepening, but small storm over the next few days. I'm leaning quite bullish with intensity on this, and I'm expecting a hurricane in about 48 hours, with some possibility of it occurring even sooner. I don't think the dry air will impact the intensity of this, as there is no storm-relative flow to advect this into the core.

I don't have any strong leanings right now in terms of track, so I'll skip discussion of that for now.

[Cheeznado]

LOL, I am rooting for the southern track, but I am actually opposite of you, I am thinking the more northern track is likely. The GFS is really the only model that is doing the west track into Mexico. I know the UK goes toward BRO, but that is after it goes north and I just cannot see a turn back to the west if it gets as far N as the UK shows. The EC, CMC, and the EnKF version of the GFS are all showing the northern track, and just from a synoptic perspective, to me the more northern track makes sense given the position of the ridge to the east and the trough coming down from the NW. I would actually probably go 60% northern Gulf track, 30% Mexico, and 10% some other weird thing. The southern track becomes more likely to me if it can form well down in the BOC and/or remains a very small storm.

But I hope you are right. :-)

Good arguments- I hope you are right as well

I often find that a consistent GFS can be better than an inconsistent Euro, and it worries me that the Euro ensembles are generally south. As I stated above, the 12Z Euro is important, if it trends south this reinforces the southern camp strongly. Not an easy forecast by any means.

[wxsmwhrms]

This will likely become a TD later this afternoon after recon investigates the area. The low-level vorticity is very well-defined and there is plenty of convection. Given the presence of dry air in the environment constricting the size of the storm, the high SST and decent oceanic heat content in the Bay of Campeche, and the low shear, this could spin up pretty quickly as many storms in this region have in the past. This is supported by all of the reliable global model guidance showing a quickly deepening, but small storm over the next few days. I'm leaning quite bullish with intensity on this, and I'm expecting a hurricane in about 48 hours, with some possibility of it occurring even sooner. I don't think the dry air will impact the intensity of this, as there is no storm-relative flow to advect this into the core.

I don't have any strong leanings right now in terms of track, so I'll skip discussion of that for now.

CUMet, where do you think the center of the low level vorticity is right now?

BTW, FWIW, the new NAM has this as a 951 mb (!) hurricane at 23.7N, 94.1W at 84 hours, moving slowly N.