dan88 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Missed the in between observation containing the center because of inconsistent updates, but flight level winds at least 81kt. Unflagged 60kt SFMR Edit, with the in between observation set, no higher then 81kt, so that is the peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 8, 2011 Author Share Posted September 8, 2011 I'm surprised it's strengthening like this. It just doesn't look so hot on visible/IR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Missed the in between observation containing the center because of inconsistent updates, but flight level winds at least 81kt. Unflagged 60kt SFMR Crazy...this definitely doesn't look anything like a 60kt+ storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 After much drama with the 6z guidance and the 12z GFS, the 12z ECWMF is a victory of sorts for staying the proverbial course in which Nate does not get very far north and then slowly turns to the west-southwest and makes landfall in Mexico. To some extent, the high-resolution NAM also appeared to be headed toward a reasonably similar track toward the end of its timeframe. Given all the uncertainty, I believe continuity makes good sense until the models get a clearer picture of what is likely to occur. With Nate likely to spend most of its existence over waters with SSTs of 29°C-31°C, I believe NATE should grow into a hurricane. There remains a modest chance that Nate could peak at Category 2 strength, though a strong Category 1 storm still appears to be the more likely outcome for a storm that takes the track I expect Nate to take. The stronger storms usually come farther north than what I expect from Nate. All said, I have no changes from last night's thinking in terms of Nate's track, area of landfall, and intensity at landfall. Nevertheless, those are fairly low-confidence ideas given the weak steering currents and large spread in model solutions. Estimated Track: 21.5N 93.6W 22.5N 95.0W 22.7N 96.0W 22.3N 97.8W 21.9N 100.0W Estimated Point of Landfall: 22.298N 97.809W (near Tampico, Mexico) ***Coordinates per Google Earth where the plotted track crosses land; not an attempt to nail landfall to extreme precision*** Estimated Intensity at Landfall: Maximum sustained winds: 90 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 8, 2011 Author Share Posted September 8, 2011 Estimated Point of Landfall: 22.298N 97.809W (near Tampico, Mexico) ***Coordinates per Google Earth where the plotted track crosses land; not an attempt to nail landfall to extreme precision*** Estimated Intensity at Landfall: Maximum sustained winds: 90 mph Thanks, Don. What are your thoughts Re: timing of landfall? Are your coordinates 24-hr positions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Thanks, Don. What are your thoughts Re: timing of landfall? Are your coordinates 24-hr positions? Josh, I deliberately don't use times, because I don't want to post my ideas in a fashion that is too similar to the National Hurricane Center. However, in terms of timing, my guess is that Nate would make landfall possibly during Sunday afternoon or evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Vortex 000 URNT12 KNHC 081841 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL152011 A. 08/18:05:50Z B. 19 deg 43 min N 092 deg 14 min W C. NA D. 40 kt E. 315 deg 40 nm F. 049 deg 41 kt G. 315 deg 41 nm H. EXTRAP 997 mb I. 21 C / 458 m J. 24 C / 519 m K. 24 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 1345 / 01 O. 0.02 / 5 nm P. AF300 0215A NATE OB 05 MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 81 KT SE QUAD 18:15:50Z SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 After much drama with the 6z guidance and the 12z GFS, the 12z ECWMF is a victory of sorts for staying the proverbial course in which Nate does not get very far north and then slowly turns to the west-southwest and makes landfall in Mexico. To some extent, the high-resolution NAM also appeared to be headed toward a reasonably similar track toward the end of its timeframe. Given all the uncertainty, I believe continuity makes good sense until the models get a clearer picture of what is likely to occur. With Nate likely to spend most of its existence over waters with SSTs of 29°C-31°C, I believe NATE should grow into a hurricane. There remains a modest chance that Nate could peak at Category 2 strength, though a strong Category 1 storm still appears to be the more likely outcome for a storm that takes the track I expect Nate to take. The stronger storms usually come farther north than what I expect from Nate. All said, I have no changes from last night's thinking in terms of Nate's track, area of landfall, and intensity at landfall. Nevertheless, those are fairly low-confidence ideas given the weak steering currents and large spread in model solutions. Estimated Track: 21.5N 93.6W 22.5N 95.0W 22.7N 96.0W 22.3N 97.8W 21.9N 100.0W Estimated Point of Landfall: 22.298N 97.809W (near Tampico, Mexico) ***Coordinates per Google Earth where the plotted track crosses land; not an attempt to nail landfall to extreme precision*** Estimated Intensity at Landfall: Maximum sustained winds: 90 mph Don, excellent discussion. Feel much better about this now that the EC is showing a solution that makes sense with the meteorology AND climatology. My main beef with the EC since it dropped the north central Gulf Coast landfall was how far north it got it and then turned it back SW. That did not make sense with either the synoptic setup or the climo. If it can stay down there at 23N, which seems more likely given how far S it has gotten in the last 12-24 hours, these WNW solutions into Mexico make sense. I actually think it is looking pretty good in the visible imagery. It is in a diffluent pattern aloft with a strong LLC and a decent curved band of active convection in the southern half of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Looks like they are taking 60kt for the intensity from the recon pass, as SHIPS was initialized with this. SHIPS also now has the shear dropping to single digit values by 18 hours, and staying there for the rest of the next 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Crazy...this definitely doesn't look anything like a 60kt+ storm. It is warm core, I haven't looked at all any of the HDOBs, but I wouldn't be surprised if that was thunderstorm gusts produced by evaporational cooling. That said, it isn't spitting out obvious outflows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 8, 2011 Author Share Posted September 8, 2011 It's definitely looking pretty good, and I think as wxmx alluded to earlier, it getting just a little farther S into the BOC could have been death knell for enough short term northerly movement for it to get north out of the BOC. Anyway, as far as intensity, GFDL and HWRF are both quite bullish, looking to have it near cat 3, although the HWRF weakens it some just before LF. Josh may want to think about planning though if he's going to, those models and the EC/UK pretty much have LF in about 72 hours. Yeah, agreed. Might have to move on this one. Josh, I deliberately don't use times, because I don't want to post my ideas in a fashion that is too similar to the National Hurricane Center. However, in terms of timing, my guess is that Nate would make landfall possibly during Sunday afternoon or evening. OK, thanks, Don. The last NHC forecast had it still offshore Tuesday and much further N. Jorge (wxmx) suspects they're going to come S and faster on the next forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Unsurprisingly, recon has moved up to 850mb now for the rest of the mission, their initial pass finding 81kt at flight level was at 950mb. Edit: Or not, they have since come back down in height. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Looking at visible loops Nate apparently halted the SE drift and is probably starting the turn Nward ... it will do so very slowly, most probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 The highest wind came from the SE quad...I wonder what the SW quad will bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 The only way this was going to hit the US was for it to start coming north immediately- based on the current position and the now basically unanimous model agreement (I am discounting the 12Z GFS) I have upped my percentage of a Mexico landfall to 95%. Interesting to Josh, not to me. This will be my last post on this storm unless I am totally wrong, I do not care about storms that do not threaten the states. With Maria likely a fish, I will pay attention to in the tropics again when there is a US landfall threat. I hope you get to chase a good one Josh, good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 8, 2011 Author Share Posted September 8, 2011 The only way this was going to hit the US was for it to start coming north immediately- based on the current position and the now basically unanimous model agreement I have upped my percentage of a Mexico landfall to 95%. Interesting to Josh, not to me. This will be my last post on this storm unless I am totally wrong, I do not care about storms that do not threaten the states. With Maria likely a fish, I will pay attention to in the tropics again when there is a US landfall threat. I hope you get to chase a good one Josh, good luck. Thanks, Cheez. Sad to see you leave the discussion-- I like your analysis. P.S. I used to only be interested in USA landfalls, too-- but a few years ago I just added MX to my "turf", and it's fun because they get so many really intense landfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Thanks, Cheez. Sad to see you leave the discussion-- I like your analysis. P.S. I used to only be interested in USA landfalls, too-- but a few years ago I just added MX to my "turf", and it's fun because they get so many really intense landfalls. Two coasts, so ENSO state is less important (although how many chase worthy storms are there on the Pacific coast). I should post an image from the KMA or something. Can't actually find a model image... http://web.kma.go.kr/eng/biz/forecast_02.jsp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Thanks, Cheez. Sad to see you leave the discussion-- I like your analysis. P.S. I used to only be interested in USA landfalls, too-- but a few years ago I just added MX to my "turf", and it's fun because they get so many really intense landfalls. Unfortunately I can only chase US landfalls and then mainly certain SE coast and GOM ones because of work. I will look forward to the video and chase accounts if you do go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 The only way this was going to hit the US was for it to start coming north immediately- based on the current position and the now basically unanimous model agreement (I am discounting the 12Z GFS) I have upped my percentage of a Mexico landfall to 95%. Interesting to Josh, not to me. This will be my last post on this storm unless I am totally wrong, I do not care about storms that do not threaten the states. With Maria likely a fish, I will pay attention to in the tropics again when there is a US landfall threat. I hope you get to chase a good one Josh, good luck. Agreed. This prolonged stall down in the BOC pretty much kills the chances of a farther north track. Also agree with Josh about missing your analyses. I guess I am a true tropical weather nerd as Josh says - I don't care where they're going, I like watching them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Agreed. This prolonged stall down in the BOC pretty much kills the chances of a farther north track. Also agree with Josh about missing your analyses. I guess I am a true tropical weather nerd as Josh says - I don't care where they're going, I like watching them. Oh I will keep an eye on this, but if I was to watch every storm that closely, it woud totally eat up my time and I do need a break from the computer now and then...:-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Oh I will keep an eye on this, but if I was to watch every storm that closely, it woud totally eat up my time and I do need a break from the computer now and then...:-) Understood. And given the curveballs that have been thrown with the guidance for this storm, it's definitely worth keeping one eye on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Making the second pass now, shows very little motion. Center roughly 1943N 09216W (Min format). Extrap down a couple mb, to 995.1mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Looking at visible loops Nate apparently halted the SE drift and is probably starting the turn Nward ... it will do so very slowly, most probably Agreed. If the GFS has any hope of being right, it should be apparent in the next 24 hours. The GFS forecast position for 12Z in the morning is 21.1N, 91.7W, compared to 20N, 93W for the ECMWF. If the GFS is going to have the right idea (which I am thinking it will not), it will have to be close to that position and moving N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 000 URNT12 KNHC 082009 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL152011 A. 08/19:50:30Z B. 19 deg 42 min N [previous 19 deg 43 min N] 092 deg 17 min W [previous 092 deg 14 min W] C. NA D. 46 kt E. 050 deg 46 nm F. 144 deg 59 kt G. 050 deg 45 nm H. EXTRAP 995 mb I. 20 C / 476 m J. 23 C / 477 m K. 23 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 12345 / 01 O. 0.02 / 4 nm P. AF300 0215A NATE OB 08 MAX FL WIND 82 KT SE QUAD 18:15:50Z SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 8, 2011 Author Share Posted September 8, 2011 The new package set the intensity at 60 kt. No surprise there. Interestingly, they're sticking to the slow scenario-- the forecast track has the cyclone still well offshore in the C Gulf and creeping NW at Day 5, with winds of 85 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 The new package set the intensity at 60 kt. No surprise there. Interestingly, they're sticking to the slow scenario-- the forecast track has the cyclone still well offshore in the C Gulf and creeping NW at Day 5, with winds of 85 kt. I'm still feeling rather confident in my track and intensity scenario I outlined this morning, although if the ECWMF speeds up any more, I might have to consider speeding up my forecast as well. Still think Borderline Cat 3-4 is possible at this point for max intensity, although the storm will likely be weakening before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 8, 2011 Author Share Posted September 8, 2011 The latest forecast track is sloooooooow. It has the cyclone still well offshore at Day 5, and it suggests landfall maybe a week from now at the earliest! Jorge thinks it would be more like late Sunday or Tuesday. Huge spread in the thinking here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 8, 2011 Author Share Posted September 8, 2011 I'm still feeling rather confident in my track and intensity scenario I outlined this morning, although if the ECWMF speeds up any more, I might have to consider speeding up my forecast as well. Still think Borderline Cat 3-4 is possible at this point for max intensity, although the storm will likely be weakening before landfall. Thanks. Why do you think the NHC is going with much, much slower motion compared with what you and Jorge think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Thanks. Why do you think the NHC is going with much, much slower motion compared with what you and Jorge think? Josh, based on the TCD, I think that with as normally "reliable" a model as the GFS and (apparently) a number of ECMWF ensemble solutions still showing a more northward track toward the Gulf Coast, they are not yet ready to go "all in" on the WNW track toward Mexico. The ridging north of the system is not that strong, and we've seen some rather disturbing changes in all of the models the last few days, so that caution is probably warranted. Assuming that within 12-24 hours it's clear that the ECMWF/UKMET scenario is correct, I think you will see a faster track to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 8, 2011 Author Share Posted September 8, 2011 Josh, based on the TCD, I think that with as normally "reliable" a model as the GFS and (apparently) a number of ECMWF ensemble solutions still showing a more northward track toward the Gulf Coast, they are not yet ready to go "all in" on the WNW track toward Mexico. The ridging north of the system is not that strong, and we've seen some rather disturbing changes in all of the models the last few days, so that caution is probably warranted. Assuming that within 12-24 hours it's clear that the ECMWF/UKMET scenario is correct, I think you will see a faster track to the coast. OK, that makes sense-- thanks. If the Euro/UKMET solution ends up "winning", around when would you expect it to cross the coast-- approximately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.