Tracking the Major Weekend Winter Storm

[Dr No]

After following guidance the last couple of days there is a 100% certainty of a major winter storm in the east this weekend. It appears if the strong digging vort will pop a surface low in the plains and provide a significant snowfall to the midwest. I think the Euro is correct in indicating that there will end up being a stong plains/midwest storm with resulting heavy snow. The LP wave I have with an arrow will likely be stronger and track into the KY/SE OH/SW PA Area.

What guidance has trended toward today is a much powerful digging of the jet and resulting enhancement of the upper level energy in the Southeast. This scenario has pretty good guidance support today on the GFS/DJEX/JMA/Nogaps, and support starting to appear on the Euro and GGEM solutions. With the upper support digging into the SE, the primary eventually transfers to the baroclinic zone near the coast. There is a large volume of cold air and dynamics pushing this south due to help from our strong Nina.

The result is a powerful "secondary" forming somewhere along the coast. How far the upper support digs as well as the very exact position of the 500 and 700 mb LP will dictate how much significant snow makes it east. It's noted that we are up to 7/12 members (18Z GFS 2010/12/7) giving DC Metro snow, and potential blizzard conditions to areas closer to home. The Ensemble member I chose gives Northern VA and Central MD some accumulating snow and probably a big dose of wind Sunday PM. Others are very, very bullish, giving DC Metro a significant snow event, and others yet dry slot us (transfer the LP too far north)

The map here shows in the pink shading is the areas I think have the best chance for Blizzard conditions. The orange areas have the potential based on the track and evolution of the storm. Garrett Co and the central apps look to get a good hit for sure.

This is going to be a fun one to watch, and you are golden if in the Apps IMO. I wouldn't rule out the potential of a surprise further east. Regardless the cold and wind will be a bear for the MA early next week.

[Ian]

is this a joke? if not this should be deleted. there will be no "blizzard" this weekend. good grief.

for us it's very doubtful... but with a bombing low and a strong high pressure right behind it i wouldnt be shocked if someone got blizzard conditions

[Avdave]

for us it's very doubtful... but with a bombing low and a strong high pressure right behind it i wouldnt be shocked if someone got blizzard conditions

For about .5% of the mid atlantic members MAY get a blizzard, probably the same areas that had one Tues. And saying that it is possible is like saying it may have blizzard on 12/20

[Ian]

For about .5% of the mid atlantic members MAY get a blizzard, probably the same areas that had one Tues. And saying that it is possible is like saying it may have blizzard on 12/20

while i'd probably frame the issue a little differently for this region i dont think the analysis is off to any major degree

at this range the changes needed for a better solution here are not massive if also maybe not the most likely

[Analog96]

is this a joke? if not this should be deleted. there will be no "blizzard" this weekend. good grief.

You don't think there's going to be a blizzard in NW PA/ SW NY?

[Bostonseminole]

is this a joke? if not this should be deleted. there will be no "blizzard" this weekend. good grief.

looks pretty serious and why should it be deleted? he put some effort into this.

[A-L-E-K]

lol, most of the ensemble mean tracks bring rain to his "best chance" blizzard area, this really can't be taken seriously at this range.

[Ian]

when Wes honks, I'll take it seriously.

i doubt most would disagree.. yet im not sure of your point here. at the very least spell out why it's a wishcast etc. since this is a board covering many regions some 'outsiders' may post in the subforum.. if they're not starting threads about florida freezes, big deal.

[usedtobe]

while i'd probably frame the issue a little differently for this region i dont think the analysis is off to any major degree

at this range the changes needed for a better solution here are not massive if also maybe not the most likely

I think the changes in the models that are needed for a snow in DC or even MRB are really, really big. A negative tilted trough like that one isn't good that far west and would bring a pretty strong low west of the mountains prior to redevelopment and then the new low would from over land. Even the member he shows has an inland track which doesn't favor snow over this area. Without a 500 low closing off a center south of us, we're not gonna get anything of note. I'd feel more comfi as a snow lover in indiana or Detroit than Frostburg and Oakland until the latter starts getting upslope when the flow goes northwesterly behind the low. Heck, if the euro is right, Chicago may be in play. My guess is the 00Z gfs will again flop back a little west but even if it doesn't, lots of work needs to be done and more often than not with strong developing lows, it seems the error over the years with the GFS has been to not warp the storm far enough west.

[Ian]

I think the changes in the models that are needed for a snow in DC or even MRB are really, really big. A negative tilted trough like that one isn't good that far west and would bring a pretty strong low west of the mountains prior to redevelopment and then the new low would from over land. Even the member he shows has an inland track which doesn't favor snow over this area. Without a 500 low closing off a center south of us, we're not gonna get anything of note. I'd feel more comfi as a snow lover in indiana or Detroit than Frostburg and Oakland until the latter starts getting upslope when the flow goes northwesterly behind the low. Heck, if the euro is right, Chicago may be in play. My guess is the 00Z gfs will again flop back a little west but even if it doesn't, lots of work needs to be done and more often than not with strong developing lows, it seems the error over the years with the GFS has been to not warp the storm far enough west.

i don't disagree but just a glance at 18z gfs 500 positioning shows we're not 'out of the realm' even if it's like a 2% chance -- granted that's all i really looked at and i would bet things end up west of what we see now if any direction has to be given ... as i've noted in this thread i would have framed things differently here. but attacking etc isn't the answer.. especially when those are the only posts that seem to show up in this subforum from someone. im not going to delete someone's analysis if it's thought out even if it might not occur how it's portrayed.

[usedtobe]

i don't disagree but just a glance at 18z gfs 500 positioning shows we're not 'out of the realm' even if it's like a 2% chance -- granted that's all i really looked at and i would bet things end up west of what we see now if any direction has to be given ... as i've noted in this thread i would have framed things differently here. but attacking etc isn't the answer.. especially when those are the only posts that seem to show up in this subforum from someone. im not going to delete someone's analysis if it's thought out even if it might not occur how it's portrayed.

I agree, I wouldn't either but thought I'd weigh in on the possibility and think for someone with not that much meteorological knowledge, I'd try to note that I think the analysis is somewhat faulty.

[Ian]

I agree, I wouldn't either but thought I'd weigh in on the possibility and think for someone with not that much meteorological knowledge, I'd try to note that I think the analysis is somewhat faulty.

understood.. i think most everyone appreciates your insight, or they should.

[usedtobe]

I'm not even staying up to wait for the GFS so you can get a feel for how much potential I think it has for the dc area,

[northpittweather]

I think this is going to be a historic storm for the Appalachians

[Kmlwx]

I think this is going to be a historic storm for the Appalachians

Does this qualify as reasoning and explanation?

[Ian]

guys, there is technically a pa subforum... obviously there is some overlap but if your focus is there please post there.

[wxmeddler]

Good, the first storm specific thread of the year.

I urge everyone to listen to last nights radio show that DT, Ian and Randy hosted if they haven't already.

For me, I think we all have to watch the block and see how well it holds on.

[northpittweather]

Does this qualify as reasoning and explanation?

All the models mixed together seems like this area is the spot

[clskinsfan]

I'll give the op credit for making a balls call. But pulling a few ensemble members to justify your reasoning is dangerous. I could just as easily pull the members that flood us and make the opposite argument.

[WinterWxLuvr]

What the weather will be down the road, nobody knows for certain, we all know that. The blizzard call was pretty bold. I wouldn't make any type of call. That would assume knowledge that I don't have. But I can watch, and I can listen to others, and, at the very least, it would seem that the situation has at least improved a little over the past 24 hours (predictive) for those east of the mountains. We'll see, hope for the best, and hope somehow we can all cash in on a little snow.

[Wonderdog]

Models are bringing this weekend's storm further east and south, especially 06z GFS and UKMET. This apparently bears some watching, regardless of the "NINA".

[Master of Disaster]

Models are bringing this weekend's storm further east and south, especially 06z GFS and UKMET. This apparently bears some watching, regardless of the "NINA".

Those get ignored to get Trixies failed trolling of this thread.

[H2O]

Models are bringing this weekend's storm further east and south, especially 06z GFS and UKMET. This apparently bears some watching, regardless of the "NINA".

It is still too warm regardless of placement. The 12z could very easily go back west just like it yesterday after the 6z run. NE has more chance than us.

[mappy]

Blizzard?

Bold call for sure. Then again, it's Wednesday and we have seen big shifts in the models happen in the past. But without a block, I don't see the Mid-Atl seeing much snow, if any at all.

[usedtobe]

I guess I'm also being a troll. The 06Z GFS run still is ugly for all of I95 and even looks like State College would have a changeover. It's always nice to look at the 850 low position and flow when assessing snowfall potential. at 102 hours, the 850 low is west of DC with southerly winds from DCA to Maine. That's hardly the set up for snow anywhere east of the mountains prior to the storm's reformation. The 850 temp is above freezing even at State College.

Because of the southerly flow ahead of the 850 low temps at around 5000 ft are well above freezing over Boston at 108hrs.

The low tracks up the Hudson Valley and by 120 hours, we're in cold advection and the precipitation has shut off in DC.

The off hours of the GFS have always been the most east of the model runs, each 12Z or 00Z run has shifted the low track back west.

Now look at the 500h. The KU book discusses the importance of confluence. IFor this storm, it's none existent. If you live anywhere from DC to NYC along the I 95 corridor or in the DC area even back towards Winchester and you think you might get a good snow storm, good luck. The odds are very, very strongly against it.

[winterymix]

The KU book discusses the importance of confluence. For this storm, it's none existent.

In a rational world, the statement, above, would kill wishcasting for the front end of the storm.

[Ender]

I'm more than just surprised that this is being discussed. Not offended, just surprised. Unless we see a secondary form around the SC/GA coast (we won't) this is a meaningless conversation for the DC metro area as it is for MRB, HGR, PHL, CHO, ETC. Even the VA Sky Line area. Sure there's going to be an upslope event in WV/MD. I'm holding my hopes out for some backside squalls as there does seem to be at least a remote possibility of that. Still, a 5min blizzard doesn't cut it in my book.

[Huffwx]

I'm more than just surprised that this is being discussed. Not offended, just surprised. Unless we see a secondary form around the SC/GA coast (we won't) this is a meaningless conversation for the DC metro area as it is for MRB, HGR, PHL, CHO, ETC. Even the VA Sky Line area. Sure there's going to be an upslope event in WV/MD. I'm holding my hopes out for some backside squalls as there does seem to be at least a remote possibility of that. Still, a 5min blizzard doesn't cut it in my book.

You can kill the dreamer, but you can't kill the dream.

I lived in Delaware winter of 86-87 and we had 3 storms of 10 inches or more. The next winter--I simply expected every storm to deliver. (The Jan 88 storm) was mentioned to have potential to be a foot at first, and with 6 inches and it was tapering down, I still didn't believe it because of the past winter. I think DC is still shell shocked from last winter. When a storm looks bad--they are still reliving Feb 2010 in their hearts.

[usedtobe]

In a rational world, the statement, above, would kill wishcasting for the front end of the storm.

and the track of the 850 low kills the back end. As ender has noted, I was a little surprised there were people who actually thought the models encouraging for the I95 corridor south of NYC.

[Wonderdog]

Let's see what the 12z runs have to say about a continuation of a more east/south track or a bump back to the west.