Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Heavy rain 5 - 9 September OBS


NortheastPAWx

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 689
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Looks like another day of the NAM being in lala-land. Even GFS couldn't call it. Many locations in northern and central NJ will have 2 to 3 inch amounts by midnight for the day.

As some of us mentioned days ago, the higher QPF amounts would indeed be further east.

I'm not even so sure of a cut-off anymore after midnight.

Whoever was posting the HRRR stuff, check out the latest composite radar projections on there for hours 9 and higher. It now keeps the heavy stuff in our area.

Basically at this point it's anybody's guess since most models have been crapola thus far on QPF.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Local meteorologist just put up a graphic for "Future" rainfall... and has our area getting 3.5" of additional rainfall while areas in C PA getting 6-7" of additional rainfalll. he doesn't mention that my area already received 3.14" bringing storm totals close to 6.64"

I guess my "flippant" reply that a member said a yesterday, may turn out to be true.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like another day of the NAM being in lala-land. Even GFS couldn't call it. Many locations in northern and central NJ will have 2 to 3 inch amounts by midnight for the day.

As some of us mentioned days ago, the higher QPF amounts would indeed be further east.

I'm not even so sure of a cut-off anymore after midnight.

Whoever was posting the HRRR stuff, check out the latest composite radar projections on there for hours 9 and higher. It now keeps the heavy stuff in our area.

Basically at this point it's anybody's guess since most models have been crapola thus far on QPF.

Yeah, alot of people seem to be downplaying Eastern and North Eastern P.A with this heavy rain threat compared to Central Pa. I'm already above 3.0" total. I'm not following gfs nor nam for this event.

Just look at the radar this evening, NE NJ has been getting pounded with heavy rain the past couple of hours. I could see us tacking on easily another couple of inches.

Take a look at the water Vapor loop to the south. Long night of heavy rain coming for the entire area.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, alot of people seem to be downplaying Eastern and North Eastern P.A with this heavy rain threat compared to Central Pa. I'm already above 3.0" total. I'm not following gfs nor nam for this event.

Just look at the radar this evening, NE NJ has been getting pounded with heavy rain the past couple of hours. I could see us tacking on easily another couple of inches.

Very close to 3" total here as well. (30 hour total)

crazy how horrible the models have been. This needs to be addressed and hopefully will be.

c'mon, who Hax0red the NAM. :lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Very close to 3" total here as well. (30 hour total)

crazy how horrible the models have been. This needs to be addressed and hopefully will be.

c'mon, who Hax0red the NAM. :lol:

Well Binghamton Nws for my area, has stressed the very heavy rain threat for the entire cwa with the afd today. They are still focusing the heaviest rain more west of my area though.

I would not be suprised if the heaviest axis of rainfall wedges into our area Come tomorrow night and Thursday morning.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Local meteorologist just put up a graphic for "Future" rainfall... and has our area getting 3.5" of additional rainfall while areas in C PA getting 6-7" of additional rainfalll. he doesn't mention that my area already received 3.14" bringing storm totals close to 6.64"

I guess my "flippant" reply that a member said a yesterday, may turn out to be true.

It was still flippant regardless of the outcome. Making statements without any reasoning or backup are worthless. I'm sorry if that hurts your feelings, but it's true. This is a weather board for people to learn TOGETHER. Making statements of non-facts and/or conjecture doesn't further the mission of the board, does it? That was and still is my point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

only 1.4" on the day after 2.05" yesterday. Seems a break in the action is imminent in western Lehigh. To be honest, this storm is behaving as expected in the AFD's and HPC forecasts from the weekend. An inch or an inch and a half every day for several days with spots of heavy rain and times of no rain.

2.74" yesterday and 1.88" (and climbing) today. I'm wondering if I can pull down 2" of rain in 3 consecutive days. Wonder how often that has happened...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How are the roads up there?

Roads earlier were standing water....'water water everywhere'..

I think drainage is barely able to keep up with combo of saturated ground and moderate rain rates.

County EMS reports are in line with this.

The large collector streams and rivers may be a different story tomorrow and thursday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

dry slot approaching

Not quite for our forecast area...but Upton just updated and their expecting it to be short-lived -

THE BREAK IN THE RAIN OVER DE AND EASTERN MD SHOULD BE SHORT

LIVED (APPROX 2

HOURS) - REACHING NYC AROUND 11 PM.

According to nowcasting models, I somewhat agree. Big troubles if this continues most of the overnight.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...