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Heavy rain 5 - 9 September OBS


NortheastPAWx

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latest hrrr...looks like its taking that stuff down by rich and bring it right up the i95 corridor on east and west

totp_t3sfc_f15.png

That matches the radar real well. Sucks though, I've got Phils tix tonight. With their condensed schedule the rest of the way, I bet they play tonight regardless, and I don't feel like sitting in the rain.

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That matches the radar real well. Sucks though, I've got Phils tix tonight. With their condensed schedule the rest of the way, I bet they play tonight regardless, and I don't feel like sitting in the rain.

They need to pray that the rain shield in VA stays west of the city. they'll probably try to get the game in unless it's really bad but they're better off doing a day-night tomorrow and hoping for the best.

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very moist air still in the grasp over the area. With the next batch of heavier rain moving in the next couple hours any place that gets hit over again will easily get 1-2 inches of rain. Pwats are very high esp from phl metro on south. The potential precipitation is also very high from i95 corridor and 40-60 miles either side...

pwtr_sf.gif?1315330995411

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http://radar.weather...t_lite_loop.php

Axis of heaviest rains in next round look to be setting up west of Philly...just taking the radar and running it NNE it looks like it brings the heaviest over the N & W burbs towards dinner and this evening.

its taking an odd motion...from va to dc its nne, but once past dc dover line it bends it to a more ene movement like curves it around. This deff looks like a i95 on west event, with heaviest in the rt 100 area to mdt

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its taking an odd motion...from va to dc its nne, but once past dc dover line it bends it to a more ene movement like curves it around. This deff looks like a i95 on west event, with heaviest in the rt 100 area to mdt

It's because of the 500mb flow, the same flow that will steer Katia OTS

This is why I am not buying such a close pass from Katia, and I'm quite worried about the models being too dry

500mb.gif?1315332003319

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its taking an odd motion...from va to dc its nne, but once past dc dover line it bends it to a more ene movement like curves it around. This deff looks like a i95 on west event, with heaviest in the rt 100 area to mdt

Yep...wouldn't surprise me though as the evening progresses if the flow nudges a bit more NNE. Warm front is lurking down south...temps of 84 and 88 along the VA part of the Delmarva...90's in Norfolk.

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There are two separate pipelines of heavier rain that are going to affect various portions of the region. With one being the main one, and the other one getting cut off. Those two areas down to the south should consolidate and head nne at first then a more ne to ene movement once past the dc-dover line. The western band towards central va should be the main player per models later on tonight that hits central pa as the hose in eastern va gets cut off after giving us heavy rain this afternoon into the night.

northeast-1.gif

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There are two separate pipelines of heavier rain that are going to affect various portions of the region. With one being the main one, and the other one getting cut off. Those two areas down to the south should consolidate and head nne at first then a more ne to ene movement once past the dc-dover line. The western band towards central va should be the main player per models later on tonight that hits central pa as the hose in eastern va gets cut off after giving us heavy rain this afternoon into the night.

I agree, though i think north of the front we will lose all the convection. Models are doing a bang up job: 12Z NAM had 0.04 for KPHL through 2 PM, they've had 0.33 (I'm at 1.4 as we caught a heavier band that went west of KPHL). 12Z GFS hardly better at 0.12 through 3PM. Time to go meso...

And I just want to post this for posterity (posteed around noon): Fox 29 expects there will be enough of a break to get the game in at Citizens Bank Park, but if you are going, be prepared.

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0.96" since midnight to add to the 2.05" from yesterday. At least it isn't all falling in 8-12 hour period like Irene and Floyd did, and is less than those totals too. According to the HPC, we still have another 1.5-2" in this neck of the woods (Macungie area). Let's hope the Little Lehigh hangs tough and evacuates the water as fast as it falls. Note central PA still is progged to get a bloodbath.

d13_fill.gif

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0.96" since midnight to add to the 2.05" from yesterday. At least it isn't all falling in 8-12 hour period like Irene and Floyd did, and is less than those totals too. According to the HPC, we still have another 1.5-2" in this neck of the woods (Macungie area). Let's hope the Little Lehigh hangs tough and evacuates the water as fast as it falls. Note central PA still is progged to get a bloodbath.

Might need to run yourself a concrete drainage channel or two...

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