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Heavy rain 5 - 9 September OBS


NortheastPAWx

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I think you misunderstood me, I was implying that with a track of Katia further offshore, NJ and eastern PA would most likely cash in on more than what is forecasted.

:lol: Probably did at that. I was tired and needed to get to bed. Again, nothing meant by my disagree (which may not have even been a correct analysis)

newest pwats, greatest shifting east as cold front comes east with it

pwtr_sf.gif?1315277865595

I see that there's a SLP right at Del bay ATM. Cold front made it just a bit further than I expected, but not by alot. It's more on a positive axis nearer E VA and I'd thought more C VA.

definitely a good bit cooler out than yesterday....popped the windows open

Cooler yes - but with 93% humidity values, I like my sugar to stay granular and my papers (and other things) to be stiff and usable. Keeping the AC going.

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I see that there's a SLP right at Del bay ATM. Cold front made it just a bit further than I expected, but not by alot. It's more on a positive axis nearer E VA and I'd thought more C VA.

12z models yesterday did very well with the placement on the front...they pretty much had this thing clear the NJ Coast and then go across the Delmarva into VA. Front is now pretty much where it was progged to be at this point...probably oozes a bit more south before stalling out. Canadian high has some oomph to it (30's in the UP of Michigan this morning, 40's into Indiana)

Cooler yes - but with 93% humidity values, I like my sugar to stay granular and my papers (and other things) to be stiff and usable. Keeping the AC going.

:lol:

Figured for a day before the muggies completely return I'd open it. I don't mind 60 with dewpoints of 60 after it's 80 with dewpoints of 74 the day prior. I take the cool how I can get it.

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3.08" total from the storm thus far.

Solid start likely to lead to another above normal month rainfall wise. Depending on models and more importantly what actually happens between this afternoon and Thursday morning seems you and I should be in line for an additioal 1-3". Being a bit further west you may be able to up that a some. But again just have to wait and see exactly how this plays out. Further west 3-6"+ is looking very likely.

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2.25" of rain so far for this entire event.. looks like heavy rains over night.. maybe the 5-8" of rainfall will occur here. Could lead to major flooding problems.

you just can't make flippant and alarmist statements like that without anything to back it up. Here is the latest HPC map for the next 72 hours beginning at 8am this morning. As you can see, you are nowhere near 5-8". Closer to 3-4" max, and HPC has held steady for several cycles now.

d13_fill.gif

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you just can't make flippant and alarmist statements like that without anything to back it up. Here is the latest HPC map for the next 72 hours beginning at 8am this morning. As you can see, you are nowhere near 5-8". Closer to 3-4" max, and HPC has held steady for several cycles now.

d13_fill.gif

Man, cut the guy some slack, he said "Maybe". An alarmist point of view is when there is no flood watch issued. I have already had 3 inches of rain and I am east of his location. Not every model is that accurate for Qpf. That is why they call them "models"

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FWIW the NAM keeps alot of the very heavy stuff later on today just to the north of the area, the difference between the 6z GFS and the 6Z NAM are a couple of inches, regardless, many of the flashier small rivers in NE NJ are already getting close to minor flooding, and most of the rain has fallen to the NW of I-80/I-287

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Man, cut the guy some slack, he said "Maybe". An alarmist point of view is when there is no flood watch issued. I have already had 3 inches of rain and I am east of his location. Not every model is that accurate for Qpf. That is why they call them "models"

I guess you and I differ with making comments without support.

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There is a flood watch out, plus read BGM disco which mentions "Major flooding"... not alarmist here lol. Besides there were more then a few models that had E PA covered in the 5"+..

I have already received today .52" of rain on top of the 2.25" so far bringing the total to 2.77". Guess what? It's going to keep raining until Thursday AM so chances of me going over the "3-4 max" level are pretty significant.

Don't throw stones if you live in a glass house.

you just can't make flippant and alarmist statements like that without anything to back it up. Here is the latest HPC map for the next 72 hours beginning at 8am this morning. As you can see, you are nowhere near 5-8". Closer to 3-4" max, and HPC has held steady for several cycles now.

d13_fill.gif

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There is a flood watch out, plus read BGM disco which mentions "Major flooding"... not alarmist here lol. Besides there were more then a few models that had E PA covered in the 5"+..

I have already received today .52" of rain on top of the 2.25" so far bringing the total to 2.77". Guess what? It's going to keep raining until Thursday AM so chances of me going over the "3-4 max" level are pretty significant.

Don't throw stones if you live in a glass house.

I tried to tell him but you said it very concisely. Did you have support for that floodwatch statement? laugh.gif By the way, can I use some your stones since mine have washed away last night.

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