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Heavy rain 5 - 9 September OBS


NortheastPAWx

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thank you...yea your area is gonna get hit hard...used to have grandparents in carlisle.

Worrsome part is that both branches of the Susquehanna could receive double digit QPF (worst case scenario). Lower feeders near Hbg on the eastern watershed are >70 prctl flow. This will be worrisome - although I live atop the Mtn. I have to get anywhere via an access road right at minimum FL (17') some 1.25 mi. below me.

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My thinking is that if the Katia takes a wicked curve out to sea near VA (like most models have shown), there is no reason why the bullseye will not be over eastern PA and NJ. I think we could very well see a shift to the east with the QPF axis, possibly as soon as the 00z runs.

at201112_model.gif

at201112_ensmodel.gif

Very respectfully disagree (for my last post tonight) the more rapidly the recurve happens, the LESS Katia takes away from the moisture transport via the GOM tap. Lee rem's take the whole show (or a larger part of it) and continue to tap that flow unfettered.

A slower recurve would allow Katia to throw into the mix moreso along the coastal regions - by tapping that GOM flow to some extent (as shown by the 700 mb charts on the model runs that skirt the OBX area or just east). If that happens, then the coast and 100 inland would be the bullseye

But I'm not trying to start anything by saying so - regardless, I hope you all are safe and relatively unaffected.

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Check that, my kids were messing with the guage. I checked the other guage,,,2.4 inches today alone. There is flooding in the usual places - Bethlehem downtown, and in the township on Willow Park Rd.

lol, tell them to keep the hose away from the rain gauges! I'm sure those places will unfortunately get worse over the next few hours

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2.17" now. Won't take much more at this rate to top Irene IMBY. My gauge was a little messed up at the time, but I'm fairly certain I stayed under 4".

yeah, looks like the fropa is limping across the LV now. Appears to be the focus point for the heavy showers, and I'm happy to give them to Tombo and company closer to Philly. Got 1.66" since midnight, and I'd like to keep it near 2" today so I have something left for Lee in 48 hours.

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unv took down the flood watch for central pa?

CTP. ;)

Looking at their FFA product it had a product expiration time of 00z this evening, therefore probably why it dropped off the web page. Not sure why many of their products were not issued/refreshed on the day shift.

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