BucksCO_PA Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 2.78" from 7am Wed to 7am this morning 5.89" event total looks like the Neshaminy gauge at Langhorne crapped the bed at 10.78', was forecast to crest at 13.5' before the site crashed, 4th time in less than 2 wks the Neshaminy has flooded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 By hour 12 on the HRR, E PA and NJ is almost completely dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Do you have 12hr and 18hr HRRR? Thanks! hrrr goes to hr 15, which isnt out yet, but heres total accum precip through hr 12 heres the 11z rr total accum precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
al79philly Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Can I ask 2 dumb questions? 1. If these are the remnants of Lee (a tropical storm), why all the thunder and lightning. I heard nothing during Irene. 2 If we have low pressure in place, what is preventing Katia from just coming onshore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 total so far for drexel hill is 8.13 3.77 so far today..4.36 the previous 2 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 A hair under the 8 inch mark. Did not expect this much rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 From KPHL NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... -- Changed Discussion --UPDATE TO TIGHTEN THE POPS GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR CWA. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, BUT THE TROPICAL CONNECTION WITH THE BULLSEYE IN THE SUSQ VALLEY HAS NOT WAVERED. QUITE A PLUME OF MOISTURE ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EAST OF THE SPINNING MID LEVEL VORTEX AND ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, AND ENERGY CONTINUES TO LIFT UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE VORTEX AS THE UPPER JET MAKES SLOW PROGRESS FROM THE APPALACHIANS TOWARD THE COAST. WE ALSO SEE THE FLOW FROM H8 TO THE SURFACE SUGGESTING UPSLOPING OVER AREAS NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF THE FALL LINE. FINALLY, THERE IS A WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD SAID FALL LINE. WITH ALL THAT, WE BASICALLY MAINTAIN THE RATHER DIRE FORECAST AND THE FLOOD WATCH. THE ONLY CHANCE POPS WE CARRY ARE OVER PARTS OF THE OCEAN AND THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TODAY. WE GO CATEGORICAL MOST EVERYPLACE ELSE WITH A BUFFERING AREA OF LIKELY POPS. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ARE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES SOUTH ARE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OF CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --BECAUSE THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING INSTABILITY ALOFT INTO THE EVENING AND THERE HAS YET TO BE A SEVERING OF THE TROP CONNECTION, WE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THE EVENING. THE UPPER JET IS FORECAST TO PASS TO THE EAST TONIGHT, AND WE HOPE THAT, WITH THAT, WE WILL SEE LESS ENERGY MOVING INTO OUR AREA TO ACT ON THE STILL RATHER PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY CONTINUITY WITH A LITTLE NUDGE UP SOUTH AND DOWN NORTH.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 From KPHL NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... -- Changed Discussion --UPDATE TO TIGHTEN THE POPS GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR CWA. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, BUT THE TROPICAL CONNECTION WITH THE BULLSEYE IN THE SUSQ VALLEY HAS NOT WAVERED. QUITE A PLUME OF MOISTURE ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EAST OF THE SPINNING MID LEVEL VORTEX AND ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, AND ENERGY CONTINUES TO LIFT UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE VORTEX AS THE UPPER JET MAKES SLOW PROGRESS FROM THE APPALACHIANS TOWARD THE COAST. WE ALSO SEE THE FLOW FROM H8 TO THE SURFACE SUGGESTING UPSLOPING OVER AREAS NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF THE FALL LINE. FINALLY, THERE IS A WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD SAID FALL LINE. WITH ALL THAT, WE BASICALLY MAINTAIN THE RATHER DIRE FORECAST AND THE FLOOD WATCH. THE ONLY CHANCE POPS WE CARRY ARE OVER PARTS OF THE OCEAN AND THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TODAY. WE GO CATEGORICAL MOST EVERYPLACE ELSE WITH A BUFFERING AREA OF LIKELY POPS. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ARE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES SOUTH ARE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OF CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --BECAUSE THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING INSTABILITY ALOFT INTO THE EVENING AND THERE HAS YET TO BE A SEVERING OF THE TROP CONNECTION, WE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THE EVENING. THE UPPER JET IS FORECAST TO PASS TO THE EAST TONIGHT, AND WE HOPE THAT, WITH THAT, WE WILL SEE LESS ENERGY MOVING INTO OUR AREA TO ACT ON THE STILL RATHER PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY CONTINUITY WITH A LITTLE NUDGE UP SOUTH AND DOWN NORTH.-- End Changed Discussion -- Sadly I read "Dire" as "Drier" I became a little relieved for that split second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 from the golf course a low area by the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 The NAM has just been pathetic with this event from start to finish, this is how it just initialized and 6 hrs from then it shows nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 The NAM has just been pathetic with this event from start to finish, this is how it just initialized and 6 hrs from then it shows nothing While I agree it's been horrible, even the HRRR pretty much has everything ending my early evening. We'll see. edited: why can't I post HRRR images here? Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 it depends on your location, out here in northern NJ it should be pouring here by mid-afternoon Yeah, I posted too quickly after looking at the loop - as Rib noted it's really hour 10 and beyond when everything breaks up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 just tacked on another .35 here at work in wayne.... 5.91 storm total here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Yeah, I posted too quickly after looking at the loop - as Rib noted it's really hour 10 and beyond when everything breaks up. One last comment on the HRRR. It takes Katia due north throughout the period, and retrogrades Lee back to IL. It also puts the best CAPE over PHL at the same time precip cuts off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 If you look at the IR loop on Katia, it is indeed moving due north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 One last comment on the HRRR. It takes Katia due north throughout the period, and retrogrades Lee back to IL. It also puts the best CAPE over PHL at the same time precip cuts off. To bad the trigger won't be there for thunderstorms later with the best cape setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Anyone know what KPHL rain total is for the last month or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 If you look at the IR loop on Katia, it is indeed moving due north True. But 10 hours from now NHC has it more NNE. The longer it goes north the quicker precip cuts off in PHL. The HRRR has obviously way outperfromed the NAM and GFS but I'm hesitant to trust it's take on synoptic features over the globals. Lee will eventually die and the firehose will shut off, I just think it might be optimistic on the timing - if you saw my basement, you'd know I'm rooting for it to be correct! Shorter term, radars filling back in over Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 To bad the trigger won't be there for thunderstorms later with the best cape setting up. I would argue it's good that there's no trigger. But like I said above, the trigger not being there may be because of how it handles upper air Lee and Katia, which might be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 8, 2011 Author Share Posted September 8, 2011 Whomever posted the NAM -- yeah, epic fail for it this event. BGM was pretty ticked with it in the morning AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 I looked at the predictor radar on weather.com and looks to end things around 3:00pm in the Berks county area....Is that an accurate prediction or will the band be continuing. According to the predictor...things split to the east and the west and eventually fizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 8, 2011 Author Share Posted September 8, 2011 NEPA flood pics http://www.facebook.com/WBRETV?sk=wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 I would argue it's good that there's no trigger. But like I said above, the trigger not being there may be because of how it handles upper air Lee and Katia, which might be wrong. Your point is good, I am talking more along the lines of my filming, but enough is enough for those getting smashed so it good it's gonna break down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Here is a list of road closings in NJ Bergen NJ 17 Southbound, North of US 46, (MM8.7) , Hasbrouck Heights, all lanes closed and detoured - Flooding NJ 208 Northbound, Russell Av, (MM6.9) , Wyckoff, right lane closed - Downed tree Burlington NJ 73 Both Directions, CR 537/Main St, (MM29.7) , Maple Shade Twp, all lanes closed and detoured - Flooding Camden US 130 Both Directions, CR 551, (MM25.6) , Brooklawn, all lanes closed and detoured - Flooding Essex I-280 Both Directions, East of Exit 10 - Northfield Ave/CR 508, (MM10.1) , Orange City Twp, left lane closed - Accident Gloucester NJ 44 Both Directions, CR 656/Paradise Rd, (MM7.0) , West Deptford Twp, all lanes closed and detoured - Flooding US 130 Both Directions, South of US 322, (MM11.0) , Logan Twp, all lanes closed and detoured - Flooding US 322 Westbound, East of CR 551/Kings Highway, (MM7.1) , Woolwich Twp, right lane closed - Emergency construction Hudson I-280 Both Directions, CR 508, (MM16.7) , Kearny, all lanes closed and detoured - Flooding NJ 7 Northbound, North of CR 508, (MM1.4) , Kearny, all lanes closed and detoured - Flooding US 1&9 Truck Route Both Directions, NJ 440, (MM2.3) , Jersey City, partial ramp blocked - Flooding Hunterdon NJ 179 Both Directions, South of NJ 29, (MM0.3) , Lambertville, all lanes closed and detoured - Flooding NJ 29 Both Directions, North of Brookville Hollow Rd, (MM22.0) , Stockton, all lanes closed and detoured - Downed tree NJ 29 Both Directions, South of Paulmier Rd, (MM24.0) , Delaware Twp, all lanes closed and detoured - Flooding US 22 Westbound, East of CR 523/Oldwick Rd, (MM25.7) , Readington Twp, all lanes closed - Flooding Mercer NJ 29 Southbound, CR 579/Sullivan Way, (MM6.2) , Trenton, all lanes closed and detoured - Flooding NJ 29 Northbound, NJ 129, (MM1.3) , Hamilton Twp, all lanes closed and detoured - Flooding NJ 29 Both Directions, Warren St, (MM4.0) , Trenton, all lanes closed and detoured - Flooding NJ 29 Both Directions, Bernard Dr, (MM9.5) , Ewing Twp, all lanes closed and detoured - Road Collapse NJ 29 Southbound, CR 653/Calhoun St, (MM4.3) , Trenton, all lanes closed and detoured - Flooding NJ 29 Southbound, Lalor St, (MM2.6) , Trenton, ramp closed - Flooding NJ 29 Southbound, Market St, (MM3.6) , Trenton, ramp closed - Flooding Middlesex US 1 Northbound, Ridge Rd, (MM14.6) , South Brunswick Twp, jughandle closed - Flooding Monmouth NJ 35 Both Directions, County Rd, (MM45.2) , Aberdeen Twp, right lane closed - Flooding Morris I-287 Southbound, North of Exit 30 - North Maple Ave, (MM30.7) , Harding Twp, right shoulder remains closed - Overturned Dump Truck I-287 Southbound, North of Exit 30 - North Maple Ave, (MM31.2) , Harding Twp, left lane closed - Downed tree NJ 23 Northbound, Alexander Av, (MM9.9) , Pequannock Twp, ramp closed - Flooding NJ 23 Southbound, North of I-287, (MM13.3) , Riverdale, all lanes closed and detoured - Flooding Passaic NJ 20 Northbound, 33rd St, (MM2.6) , Paterson, right lane closed - Flooding NJ 20 Northbound, Broadway, (MM1.9) , Paterson, right lane closed - Flooding NJ 23 Northbound, Willowbrook Blvd, (MM4.7) , Wayne Twp, ramp closed - Flooding Sussex NJ 15 Both Directions, NJ 94, (MM16.9) , Lafayette Twp, all lanes closed - Flooding NJ 23 Both Directions, South of Blair Rd, (MM36.1) , Hardyston Twp, all lanes closed and detoured - Flooding Warren NJ 57 Both Directions, CR 643/Asbury Broadway Rd, (MM6.5) , Franklin Twp, all lanes closed and detoured - Flooding US 46 Both Directions, West of NJ 31, (MM9.7) , White Twp, all lanes closed and detoured - Flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 NEPA flood pics http://www.facebook.com/WBRETV?sk=wall That's a shame. I drove Rt. 6 last October from Tunkhannock to Mansfield. It was beautiful with the autumn colors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Up to 7.85" here in Tamaqua for the event since midnight Sunday night/Monday morning. I took a ride out west to try and get to the Susquehanna at Bloomsburg and couldn't get on I-80 west as it was closed. I ended up going up PA 93 to Berwick and got a couple of pics there that I will be posting later. There was talk of closing the Nescopeck/Berwick bridge so I got back across and gave up the notion of getting to Bloomsburg as I'd intended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Can I ask 2 dumb questions? 1. If these are the remnants of Lee (a tropical storm), why all the thunder and lightning. I heard nothing during Irene. 2 If we have low pressure in place, what is preventing Katia from just coming onshore? My understanding without having examined much is that although this is tropical moisture from Lee, it isn't still a tropical system. A lot of this rain is being caused by overrunning along the front, during which the lift associated with this process could probably create some convection and lightning/thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Mount Holly is right about the tropical connection being unbroken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Mount Holly is right about the tropical connection being unbroken. If you put that on loop its sort of maddening to see the back edge moving east down by DC but not in PA. Meanwhile in the DC forum they have a 4 page thread on whether heat lightning is real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 I really don't know what to think, the NAM looks too dry, the HRRR looks too wet, the radar seems to be falling apart over PA but filling in a bit over NJ. Overall the QPF axis doesn't seem to be making much eastward progress, instead its just expanding a bit to the east. IR shows cooling cloud tops over the Delmarva but warming tops elswhere. The sun has been out in Ramsey for about the past two hours and I think most people here think the rain is done with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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