Boch23 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Radar starting to fill in down south again. i almost want the stuff to come east now so the areas hit today can catch a break. And wow is all I can say to Hershey Park flooding like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Wow! What synoptic set up for a sharp cutoff of precip.However, coldest cloud tops are moving by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Dumping down rain here. Not good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Berks county is a mess right now...traffic is a nightmare Yup I regret trying to get to class (psu berks) Cars floating on lancaster avenue!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Definitely looks like that line is weakening though as it pushes east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Mesoscale Discussion 2147< Previous MD Next MD > MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2147 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0236 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AND EAST CENTRAL PA INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 071936Z - 072100Z AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR A STRONG WIND GUST AND/OR A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FROM SERN PA INTO CENTRAL NJ. GIVEN THE LIMITED SPATIAL EXTENT AND OVERALL THREAT CONCERN...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. AFTERNOON MESOANALYSES INDICATED A WARM FRONT HAD MOVED INTO SERN PA AND EXTENDED NEWD FROM LANCASTER TO NRN BUCKS COUNTIES PA AND THEN ENEWD THROUGH CENTRAL NJ TO OFFSHORE THE SRN LONG ISLAND COAST. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPE OF 1000-1200 J/KG WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW/SHEAR VECTORS ARE SUPPORTING PRIMARILY LINES/SHORT BOWING SEGMENTS AS INDICATED BY REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY MOVING NEWD THROUGH SERN PA AT 1925Z. BACKED SURFACE WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INVOF THE WARM FRONT ARE ALSO RESULTING IN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SRH UP TO 200 M2 PER S2/ SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION AS HAS BEEN NOTED IN A STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON OVER SERN PA. ..PETERS.. 09/07/2011 ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP... LAT...LON 39767592 40097588 40467595 40537502 40457428 40217412 39867431 39777509 39707566 39767592 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 7, 2011 Author Share Posted September 7, 2011 Susquehanna @ W-B now forecast to reach 38'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Mesoscale Discussion 2147< Previous MD Next MD > MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2147 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0236 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AND EAST CENTRAL PA INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 071936Z - 072100Z AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR A STRONG WIND GUST AND/OR A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FROM SERN PA INTO CENTRAL NJ. GIVEN THE LIMITED SPATIAL EXTENT AND OVERALL THREAT CONCERN...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. AFTERNOON MESOANALYSES INDICATED A WARM FRONT HAD MOVED INTO SERN PA AND EXTENDED NEWD FROM LANCASTER TO NRN BUCKS COUNTIES PA AND THEN ENEWD THROUGH CENTRAL NJ TO OFFSHORE THE SRN LONG ISLAND COAST. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPE OF 1000-1200 J/KG WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW/SHEAR VECTORS ARE SUPPORTING PRIMARILY LINES/SHORT BOWING SEGMENTS AS INDICATED BY REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY MOVING NEWD THROUGH SERN PA AT 1925Z. BACKED SURFACE WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR AND INVOF THE WARM FRONT ARE ALSO RESULTING IN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SRH UP TO 200 M2 PER S2/ SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION AS HAS BEEN NOTED IN A STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON OVER SERN PA. ..PETERS.. 09/07/2011 ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP... LAT...LON 39767592 40097588 40467595 40537502 40457428 40217412 39867431 39777509 39707566 39767592 I dont know what they are seeing but that whole line is weak as crap now and really fading out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Expected Crest at Harrisburg has risen from 23.9' to 26.2'. That would be 4th all time ahead of 1889 and 1996. 3rd is 26.8' from 6/2/1889. 2nd is 29.23' from 3/19/1936. 1st Agnes 32.57' 6/24/1972. Looking at the HRRR, crest will most likely go higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I remember someone giving PTB a really hard time about some of the models predicting something like 5-8" or rain. Guess they foolish now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Neshaminy Creek looks ti have issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 They were calling for rain around Wilmington this afternoon..not a drop.................lol! It was obvious that the heavy rain would set up to our west for most of the day. I don't know what you expected. All models had it pegged perfectly. A toddler could have seen that. Later on tonight? May be a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 1.24" since 8 AM. total - 5.47 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I dont know what they are seeing but that whole line is weak as crap now and really fading out. That was old, it was from 3:36pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 7, 2011 Author Share Posted September 7, 2011 .87" today, 5.66" storm total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Delaware R. in Easton: FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 28.5 FEET (moderate flood stage) BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Friend just said the power went out in Piscataway, NJ.. That little tiny cell did that ? wow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I never remember when there has been so many crests of the Delaware in such a short period of time and with the moisture from whatever remains of the disturbance in the BOC next week we may get another. THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE DELAWARE RIVER AT WASHINGTON`S CROSSING. * FROM THURSDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 4:00 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.4 FEET. * FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 17.6 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. * IMPACT...AT 16.5 FEET...FLOODING BEGINS ON LOWER RIVER DRIVE IN WASHINGTON CROSSING STATE PARK. FLOODING ALSO OCCURS ON UPPER DRIVE NEAR HOUSE #1 IN THE TITUSVILLE SECTION OF HOPEWELL TOWNSHIP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Those pictures from Hershey park were taken with the creek at 14'. Currently its at 16'. All-time record is 16.1'. Expected crest as of two hours ago is 20.1'. Might be higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 "THE INFERENCE OF THE MODEL PROJECTIONS IS THAT THIS FIRST AXIS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND BE REPLACED BY BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. THE POPS AND GRIDS WERE ALIGNED AS SUCH. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS ALL ABOUT THE SHEAR BELOW 925MB AS THE WINDS ALOFT ARE FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL. THERE REMAINS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY INTO EARLY EVENING WHERE THE FCST 1 KM HELICITY VALUES WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM ABOUT LNS COUNTY EAST THRU OCEAN COUNTY. ENHANCED WORDING FOR WIND WAS KEPT IN EARLY. WITH DEW POINTS SO HIGH, WENT WITH STAT GUIDANCE.` " nws.noaa.gov mt. holly AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Rain stopped here in NW Chesco, 72.5 degrees. Roads pretty bad around here with water running everywhere, stream (Beaver Run - trib of French Creek) is flooded in yard. Not as high as Irene. 5.86" since Sunday. Back to back record rainfall months? Hard to imagine we miss out on Nate in some way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 .Some serious temperature divergence across NJ. Looks like warm front may push through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgir Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Speaking of "Agnes" ... I have heard a story (just now, I can not confirm it yet) that the flooding at Knoebels Amusement Park, is presently, higher than the "72" flood. Imho, this is just incredible!! The gent who is referencing the haunting of Agnes, I must commend your Sir. Your thought process is correct. So far a tad over 5" here. and the gosh-darn basement has water again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Very Heavy Rain here in NW Chester County Today - 3 day total now standsat 5.26" Monday - 1.29" Tuesday - 1.44" Wed - 2.53" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Susquehanna @ W-B now forecast to reach 38'. I can't believe Grothar, may be right after all. Last time it was forecasted to reach that level was 2006, it never did, got to 34.14' however they did order an evac of 250,000. Meeting at 630 to decide what to do. Rainfall today so far .86" storm total 5.77" but I have saw reports of 5-6" of rainfall over Bloomsburg PA just today.. river forecasted to 30'.. Real bad for fair week at end of mth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Knoebels. Amazing flooding.... http://www.examiner....mber-2011-flood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 7, 2011 Author Share Posted September 7, 2011 I can't believe Grothar, may be right after all. Last time it was forecasted to reach that level was 2006, it never did, got to 34.14' however they did order an evac of 250,000. Meeting at 630 to decide what to do. Rainfall today so far .86" storm total 5.77" but I have saw reports of 5-6" of rainfall over Bloomsburg PA just today.. river forecasted to 30'.. Real bad for fair week at end of mth. The initial forecast tends to be overestimated...we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Knoebels. Amazing flooding.... http://www.examiner....mber-2011-flood The high water mark from Agnes is marked on the post of the those buildings. From what I recall it's still looks well below that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I figured it would be. That plume just kept training over the same areas. I'll bet Western Schuylkill County and up through Bloomsburg and beyond is a disaster as well. But they say the fair will go on! No doubt. I have doubt.. serious doubt about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAPPG Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 total 6.58 today 2.12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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