Boch23 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Will this last batch of rain be it? Or are we expecting another batch again in the overnight hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Will this last batch of rain be it? Or are we expecting another batch again in the overnight hours? per models, tomorrow should be rainier than today... as that inverted trof like feature shifts east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 The Bushkill Creek up here was over its banks near Bushkill Park this morning. Kissing the bridge as well. The Little Lehigh has flooded and closed Spring Creek Rd four of the last six days. The Creek is about 20 feet from my back door. The flood debris is unbelievable with many tree limbs from Irene to the floatables blown from the recycling buckets. City of Allentown's sewer system and water system really taking a hit especially when you cannot drink water from a sewer system that sometimes overflows. Ground water table being so high will help aid in sinkhole formation in our area in the next six months with the supersaturated soils. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 12z SPC WRF 6hr QPF in 18hrs Resized to 84% (was 1000 x 800) - Click image to enlarge 6hr QPF in 24 hrs Resized to 84% (was 1000 x 800) - Click image to enlarge 6hr QPF in 30hrs Resized to 84% (was 1000 x 800) - Click image to enlarge 6hr QPF in 36hrs Resized to 84% (was 1000 x 800) - Click image to enlarge The simulated radar from 24-36hrs basically has the firehose over us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Man I hope thats wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Hot off the presses :arrowhead: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Hot off the presses :arrowhead: We are halfway to a daily rainfall record at KPHL. I like our chances - Mt Holly references cumulonimbus at KPHL this aft/evening, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Best wishes, harrisburg area is a full on diaster. 4.75" since Midnight and 9.5" storm total. Seems like we actually might make a run at Agnes records Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 12z euro is going 2-3 inches from 95 north from now till sunday...and 1-2 from 95 south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mahantango Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Best wishes, harrisburg area is a full on diaster. 4.75" since Midnight and 9.5" storm total. Seems like we actually might make a run at Agnes records Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk You think the river will mak a run at the agnes record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Coming down in buckets here!!! Just got really heavy the past 20 min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 7, 2011 Author Share Posted September 7, 2011 It's about to get ugly.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 No,not 32.9', but it's already projected close to 25' and with that train just destroying both east and west branches up north as well I would not be surprised if it got close to or surpassed 2nd place all time, which is 27.9" from the 1930's. We may get close to the 15" that Agnes rained down though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Will the subsidence from Katia affect the rainfall east of I95? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 The rain has been crazy today. Roads are closed everywhere. My storm total is 8.76" so far, and it is still pouring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 The rain has been crazy today. Roads are closed everywhere. My storm total is 8.76" so far, and it is still pouring. I'm across the river and just north of you. I passed the 8" mark around 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Will the subsidence from Katia affect the rainfall east of I95? Not if you trust the SPC WRF, the outlfow may actually help to enhance the influx of tropical moisture as it goes by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I'm across the river and just north of you. I passed the 8" mark around 2pm. Yea, it has been crazy. My parents live in Maytown, and they said it is really bad over that way as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Not if you trust the SPC WRF, the outlfow may actually help to enhance the influx of tropical moisture as it goes by. I think that is why the euro is holding to 2-3 inches in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 As someone mentioned in the NYC subforum, until the 500mb ridge breaks down later tonight as modeled, the QPF axis is going to have a difficult time making any eastward progress, the 500mb flow has taken on a bit of a negative tilt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Check out the WV loop, it's pretty cool to see the outflow from Katia beginning to interact with the trough, you can see how the dry slot made it up to central NJ and then got shunted eastward, right near where the boundry has been thus far between moderate and excessive rainfall http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 As someone mentioned in the NYC subforum, until the 500mb ridge breaks down later tonight as modeled, the QPF axis is going to have a difficult time making any eastward progress, the 500mb flow has taken on a bit of a negative tilt you might see everything start to pivot, with the southern flank of the precip making more eastward progress while the northern part stays stationary, giving it a se to nw orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 As someone mentioned in the NYC subforum, until the 500mb ridge breaks down later tonight as modeled, the QPF axis is going to have a difficult time making any eastward progress, the 500mb flow has taken on a bit of a negative tilt I think you mean when the Ridging breaks down, you WILL See an EASTward component to the rain shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 you might see everything start to pivot, with the southern flank of the precip making more eastward progress while the northern part stays stationary, giving it a se to nw orientation. yes, I'm a tad worried about a "firehose" type feature swinging through, similar to what happened with Irene, but the SPC WRF does not bring the QPF axis much further east then the DE river, instead it forecasts initiation right along the Jersey shore and then its game on from there for KPHL and points east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I think you mean when the Ridging breaks down, you WILL See an EASTward component to the rain shield. yes, that is what I'm saying, as the ridging breaks down later today and tonight, the QPF axis should begin to slide eastward a tad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 you can see on dox the outflow coming off the storms is helping to ignite storms eastward you can also see the heaviest rainfall is correlated with the highest pwats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 yes, that is what I'm saying, as the ridging breaks down later today and tonight, the QPF axis should begin to slide eastward a tad Ok, I got it. I misread your post. Keyword untill* lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 No,not 32.9', but it's already projected close to 25' and with that train just destroying both east and west branches up north as well I would not be surprised if it got close to or surpassed 2nd place all time, which is 27.9" from the 1930's. We may get close to the 15" that Agnes rained down though. I have been told by others that I am crazy about this storm being like Agnes- no supporting documentation? Sorry Just kidding keep on reporting my good man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 yes and look how the PWATS bend towards the NE as you get to Philly and points north, this is a very ominious setup for northern NJ I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Once we get this last batch through, I think we can get the Philles game in tonite. Sorry there is no banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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