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Heavy rain 5 - 9 September OBS


NortheastPAWx

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it follows the fall line pretty well to

WUNIDS_mapCA2N9U87.gif

Amazing cutoff. I have 4.59 through 8 AM this morning, all fell yesterday as we didn't get the PRE-like event. Models were terrible on QPF, and HPC was sadly little better. We'll see what today brings, HPC says zippy. Both models say intermittent drizzle. Confidence is very low.

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Total rain: 5.41" since the weekend.

I don't have a rain gauge, but certainly I would think my location in Spring Mount is pretty close to that. The Perkiomen Creek was quite high at the Spring Mountain bridge this morning (VERY close to being across the road at the foot of the bridge), and all the other locations in my area that flooded due to Irene were flooded to a slightly lesser degree this morning.

We need some sunny days pronto!

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I don't have a rain gauge, but certainly I would think my location in Spring Mount is pretty close to that. The Perkiomen Creek was quite high at the Spring Mountain bridge this morning (VERY close to being across the road at the foot of the bridge), and all the other locations in my area that flooded due to Irene were flooded to a slightly lesser degree this morning.

We need some sunny days pronto!

Amazing how fast the water came up last night with all the heavy rain in the evening. Not a drop seems to be making it into the soaked ground. I feel for those people living along then creek, like you said........ the height level is a few feet lower, but it must be freaking people out to see this twice in 2 weeks.

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Amazing how fast the water came up last night with all the heavy rain in the evening. Not a drop seems to be making it into the soaked ground. I feel for those people living along then creek, like you said........ the height level is a few feet lower, but it must be freaking people out to see this twice in 2 weeks.

The Bushkill Creek up here was over its banks near Bushkill Park this morning. Kissing the bridge as well.

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Once you get north of Philly, the 500mb flow is more on a flow out of the SW, so I would expect that any convection that makes it this far north, would tend to move more NE once it gets past Philly, the question is will the flow be strong enough to push the convection far enough NE to hit NJ.

500mb.gif?1315408488609

The WV loop is showing an ever so slight eastward motion

wv-l.jpg

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The NWS must be expecting that area of very heavy rain to come east a little.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... LUZERNE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... WYOMING COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... * UNTIL 615 PM EDT * AT 1206 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED FLASH FLOODING IN FORKSTON AND TUNKHANNOCK. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO DALLAS... EDWARDSVILLE...FACTORYVILLE...MOUNTAIN TOP...HARVEYS LAKE... LACEYVILLE...LAKE CAREY...LARKSVILLE...LUZERNE...MEHOOPANY... MESHOPPEN...NANTICOKE...NICHOLSON...NOXEN...OSTERHOUT... SHICKSHINNY...SWOYERSVILLE...TUNKHANNOCK AND WILKES-BARRE. HEAVY RAIN ENDED EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT MORE HEAVY RAIN IS MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED AN INCH PER HOUR.

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from the SPC regarding todays slight risk:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1057 AM CDT WED SEP 07 2011

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...

...MID ATLANTIC STATES...

UPPER LOW OVER CNTRL KY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NWD DURING THE D1 PERIOD

WHILE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM PIVOTS FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS

ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. IN THE LOW LEVELS...NRN EXTENSION OF

PRONOUNCED BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM CNTRL NJ SSWWD THROUGH ERN

VA INTO CNTRL NC WILL ATTEMPT TO PROGRESS NWWD/WWD TODAY...WHILE SRN

EXTENSION ADVANCES EWD ACROSS ERN NC.

DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW REGIME IN PLACE ALONG/E OF SURFACE FRONT WILL

MAINTAIN THE FLUX OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS /I.E. PW VALUES ABOVE TWO

INCHES/ OFF THE ATLANTIC. WHEN COUPLED WITH BREAKS IN THE

CLOUDS...WARM SECTOR WILL GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE WITH AFTERNOON

MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. LATEST MESOSCALE AND

CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN

SUGGESTING THAT ONGOING BAND OF TSTMS FROM ERN NC NWD INTO THE

SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY WILL PERSIST...LARGELY DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL

CONVERGENCE ALONG/E OF FRONT.

CURRENT VAD DATA ACROSS WARM SECTOR INDICATE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL

FLOW THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THOUGH

SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF MIDLEVEL WIND FIELD IS FORECAST BY

AFTERNOON INVOF SURFACE FRONT...OVERALL HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE IS

EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. AS SUCH...EXPECT A

CONTINUATION OF LINE SEGMENTS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR

EMBEDDED...TRANSIENT CIRCULATIONS. ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF DAMAGING

WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS

AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT

AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES.

..MEAD.. 09/07/2011

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From KPHI

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --UPDATED TO BETTER REFLECT ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE

TRENDS. PLUME OF CONVECTION IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF 12Z WRF-NMM

FORECAST POSITION PUTTING THE WESTERN SIDE OF OUR CWA AT MOST RISK

THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WE ARE ALSO REACHING OUR CONVECTIVE TEMP IN THE WARM

SECTOR AND SOME OTHER SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING THERE.

OVC SKIES BECOME BKN EARLY THIS AFTN AT LEAST ALONG I95 SEWD AND

IT HEATS UP. SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MAINLY DEL VALLEY EMD WEST WARD.

QPF AMTS GENERALLY UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH E OF I95...BUT ISO 2.5

INCH AMTS POSSIBLE E PA AND NE MD.

SE WINDS G 20 KTS THIS AFTN.

OUR FCST PARTIALLY REFLECTS 06Z/7 SPC TOR RISK BY PUTTING IN GWINDS.

THINK THE BEST CHC OF TOR PRODUCTION IF ANY...IS E MD. PLS FOLLOW

SPC DISCUSSIONS AND ANY SVR/TOR WARNINGS WE MIGHT ISSUE THIS AFTN.

BULK SHEAR IS NOMINAL AND TT ARE POOR BUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR MIGHT BE

THE KEY FOR ANY STG CONVECTION ADJACENT CHES BAY TDY.

RELIED ON THE WARMER GFS MAV TEMPS...PER PARTIAL CLEARING AND

00Z/7 EC MAX TEMP FCST.

PNS`S FOR 3.5 OR HIGHER STP POSTING THIS MORNING AS TIME AVAILS.-- End Changed Discussion --

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Per VIS imagery, warm front sharpening up from KPHL east into central New Jersey. Believe any cells that can fire in the free warm sector would experience enhanced local low level shear if/when approaching the WF from the south. If I remember right that part of NJ is fairly flat and clear outside of Philly burbs. If I lived up there I’d hope for action in that lightly populated area. As stated before, this is not looking to be a big severe deal but could be a cell or two. Just stay safe in the broader heavy rain and any flooding that might result.

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