Parsley Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Total rain: 5.41" since the weekend. Here we go again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 wow...Philly is only at 2.69 through 5 AM today for the entire event. fall line FTW. it follows the fall line pretty well to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 6:15am, 4.80" since late sunday. maybe some drying today? when will i be able to cut the grass?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 6:15am, 4.80" since late sunday. maybe some drying today? when will i be able to cut the grass?? A few days after today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Another 1.07 overnight. Total - 4.23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 it follows the fall line pretty well to Amazing cutoff. I have 4.59 through 8 AM this morning, all fell yesterday as we didn't get the PRE-like event. Models were terrible on QPF, and HPC was sadly little better. We'll see what today brings, HPC says zippy. Both models say intermittent drizzle. Confidence is very low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Detours galore this morning. A much needed break from the rain now (hopefully). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Total rain: 5.41" since the weekend. I don't have a rain gauge, but certainly I would think my location in Spring Mount is pretty close to that. The Perkiomen Creek was quite high at the Spring Mountain bridge this morning (VERY close to being across the road at the foot of the bridge), and all the other locations in my area that flooded due to Irene were flooded to a slightly lesser degree this morning. We need some sunny days pronto! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 This is the next batch to watch for the region later on maybe what the hi res wrf that phlwx showed. You can see the line has a nne push to it, so it will be interesting to see if it hold or gains intensity or what not. If this does make it up here it will likely be after 1-2pm timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I don't have a rain gauge, but certainly I would think my location in Spring Mount is pretty close to that. The Perkiomen Creek was quite high at the Spring Mountain bridge this morning (VERY close to being across the road at the foot of the bridge), and all the other locations in my area that flooded due to Irene were flooded to a slightly lesser degree this morning. We need some sunny days pronto! Amazing how fast the water came up last night with all the heavy rain in the evening. Not a drop seems to be making it into the soaked ground. I feel for those people living along then creek, like you said........ the height level is a few feet lower, but it must be freaking people out to see this twice in 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Amazing how fast the water came up last night with all the heavy rain in the evening. Not a drop seems to be making it into the soaked ground. I feel for those people living along then creek, like you said........ the height level is a few feet lower, but it must be freaking people out to see this twice in 2 weeks. The Bushkill Creek up here was over its banks near Bushkill Park this morning. Kissing the bridge as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Forecasts for Susquehanna continue to rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 1.75 inches since 7:30 last night. total to 4.75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Right on the "Fall Line" here in Lower Bucks 3.11" total so far HPC sharp qpf gradient across metro Philly worked out nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 It will be interesting to see the rainfall totals from where the training has set up out by Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 A good bit of sun here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Once you get north of Philly, the 500mb flow is more on a flow out of the SW, so I would expect that any convection that makes it this far north, would tend to move more NE once it gets past Philly, the question is will the flow be strong enough to push the convection far enough NE to hit NJ. The WV loop is showing an ever so slight eastward motion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Storm total through 11am 4.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 look out later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 7, 2011 Author Share Posted September 7, 2011 The NWS must be expecting that area of very heavy rain to come east a little. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... LUZERNE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... WYOMING COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... * UNTIL 615 PM EDT * AT 1206 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED FLASH FLOODING IN FORKSTON AND TUNKHANNOCK. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO DALLAS... EDWARDSVILLE...FACTORYVILLE...MOUNTAIN TOP...HARVEYS LAKE... LACEYVILLE...LAKE CAREY...LARKSVILLE...LUZERNE...MEHOOPANY... MESHOPPEN...NANTICOKE...NICHOLSON...NOXEN...OSTERHOUT... SHICKSHINNY...SWOYERSVILLE...TUNKHANNOCK AND WILKES-BARRE. HEAVY RAIN ENDED EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT MORE HEAVY RAIN IS MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED AN INCH PER HOUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 from the SPC regarding todays slight risk: DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1057 AM CDT WED SEP 07 2011 VALID 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...MID ATLANTIC STATES... UPPER LOW OVER CNTRL KY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NWD DURING THE D1 PERIOD WHILE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM PIVOTS FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. IN THE LOW LEVELS...NRN EXTENSION OF PRONOUNCED BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM CNTRL NJ SSWWD THROUGH ERN VA INTO CNTRL NC WILL ATTEMPT TO PROGRESS NWWD/WWD TODAY...WHILE SRN EXTENSION ADVANCES EWD ACROSS ERN NC. DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW REGIME IN PLACE ALONG/E OF SURFACE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN THE FLUX OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS /I.E. PW VALUES ABOVE TWO INCHES/ OFF THE ATLANTIC. WHEN COUPLED WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...WARM SECTOR WILL GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. LATEST MESOSCALE AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING THAT ONGOING BAND OF TSTMS FROM ERN NC NWD INTO THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY WILL PERSIST...LARGELY DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG/E OF FRONT. CURRENT VAD DATA ACROSS WARM SECTOR INDICATE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THOUGH SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF MIDLEVEL WIND FIELD IS FORECAST BY AFTERNOON INVOF SURFACE FRONT...OVERALL HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. AS SUCH...EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF LINE SEGMENTS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED...TRANSIENT CIRCULATIONS. ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES. ..MEAD.. 09/07/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 With that sun blaring it is quite uncomfortable out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 If you look at the radar out of Dover Air Force Base you can see the rain shield in VA coming east ever so slightly, the latest HRRR has this getting very close to Philly. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=dox&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 From KPHI NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... -- Changed Discussion --UPDATED TO BETTER REFLECT ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS. PLUME OF CONVECTION IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF 12Z WRF-NMM FORECAST POSITION PUTTING THE WESTERN SIDE OF OUR CWA AT MOST RISK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WE ARE ALSO REACHING OUR CONVECTIVE TEMP IN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOME OTHER SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING THERE. OVC SKIES BECOME BKN EARLY THIS AFTN AT LEAST ALONG I95 SEWD AND IT HEATS UP. SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS MAINLY DEL VALLEY EMD WEST WARD. QPF AMTS GENERALLY UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH E OF I95...BUT ISO 2.5 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE E PA AND NE MD. SE WINDS G 20 KTS THIS AFTN. OUR FCST PARTIALLY REFLECTS 06Z/7 SPC TOR RISK BY PUTTING IN GWINDS. THINK THE BEST CHC OF TOR PRODUCTION IF ANY...IS E MD. PLS FOLLOW SPC DISCUSSIONS AND ANY SVR/TOR WARNINGS WE MIGHT ISSUE THIS AFTN. BULK SHEAR IS NOMINAL AND TT ARE POOR BUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR MIGHT BE THE KEY FOR ANY STG CONVECTION ADJACENT CHES BAY TDY. RELIED ON THE WARMER GFS MAV TEMPS...PER PARTIAL CLEARING AND 00Z/7 EC MAX TEMP FCST. PNS`S FOR 3.5 OR HIGHER STP POSTING THIS MORNING AS TIME AVAILS.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Mt. Holly's sws says only expect up to 3/4" totals from storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Check out the 12z SPC WRF, I think I'm stopping at the store on the way home from work to buy a life jacket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Picked up another 0.4 in past half hour - 4.63 total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Check out the 12z SPC WRF, I think I'm stopping at the store on the way home from work to buy a life jacket do you have the link or image? You talking this image? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Per VIS imagery, warm front sharpening up from KPHL east into central New Jersey. Believe any cells that can fire in the free warm sector would experience enhanced local low level shear if/when approaching the WF from the south. If I remember right that part of NJ is fairly flat and clear outside of Philly burbs. If I lived up there I’d hope for action in that lightly populated area. As stated before, this is not looking to be a big severe deal but could be a cell or two. Just stay safe in the broader heavy rain and any flooding that might result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 as yanksfan mentioned, that whole area to our sw is shifting ne towards the western zones... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.