NortheastPAWx Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 It's gon' rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Jersey's dodging the bullet today...80's at the Shore...sun was out earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Had some sort of rain overnight here. But so far nada for today. Looking to film again for lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 .80" so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 0.31" thus far as latest batch has now pulled off to the north. Looks like NJ, especially western / NW NJ will be riding the line between excessive rainfal and just a good drenching between now and Thursday while central and much of eastern PA are in the qpf bullseye. At least that is what most model data and current sat and radar suggest. Of course when dealing with a stalling front and possibly even a retrograding one its always tricky to pinpoint those cut off areas exactly. Also the secondary effects of Katia passing well east off us but perhaps beiing in or near a western subsidence zone need to be considered. Obviously flood risk is extremely elevated per past months rains so going to be dicy for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Stuff down by DC moving up slowly...could get in after 8/9 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 I'll tell you what, these little blips on the radar in central MontCo. are overperforming. Pouring outside here. Huge raindrops. Sounds like hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 I'll tell you what, these little blips on the radar in central MontCo. are overperforming. Pouring outside here. Huge raindrops. Sounds like hail. Some of that has been rolling up into the Easton area as well. Usually while I've been standing outside the minivan buckling the kids in. :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Some of that has been rolling up into the Easton area as well. Usually while I've been standing outside the minivan buckling the kids in. :/ Yeah, I got hit with a little of that earlier today on a stroller walk. My daughter didn't mind the downpour as much as me. 0.27" thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 I'll tell you what, these little blips on the radar in central MontCo. are overperforming. Pouring outside here. Huge raindrops. Sounds like hail. pwats ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 pwats ftw Yup. Its PWATS like that will lead to plenty of stressing out this week on where flooding rains set up across the state of PA. (and the rest of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Cold front just came through. down to 61 and almost chilly. tropical humidity = gone. Props to mount holly's overnight discussion last night. (once again) They seemed to hit it on the money with the main QPF lining up east of where indicated on last night's models. Great call and looks like it'll verify. Tonight's heaviest stuff should be in Eastern PA / Western Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FUCK JOE BIDEN Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 .8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Only 0.20" today after last nights storms dumped 1.40" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 latest hrrr accum precip, take it fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Strong frontogenesis going on in the region ATM. 850 transporting some >2" PWAT values. 0.5" since starting in earnest around 16:00 Add to 4" in last nights training event 4.5" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 latest hrrr accum precip, take it fwiw looks like it focuses on the fropa position. Since the main slug of rain is heading to central PA, I have a hard time believing they'll only get 0.5-1.0" in 15 hours. Seems underdone there. With the heavy showers to the east, I can see focusing near the fropa for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 latest hrrr accum precip, take it fwiw Meh...not surprising...heaviest just n/w FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Strong frontogenesis going on in the region ATM. 850 transporting some >2" PWAT values. 0.5" since starting in earnest around 16:00 Add to 4" in last nights training event 4.5" so far. any chance you could add in where you are from? Im assuming you are from the harrisburg region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 pwats ftw Just look where the 2.0"+ area is point. Up into eastern / NE PA and north western NJ. At least in the near term this and radar supports scattered heavy rains intermixed with lighter areas of rain. Still to be seen for sure how far east or west the heaviest axis sets-up beyond tonight / early tomorrow. 0.69" as of 7PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Just looking at the radar, NJ is going to get quite the soaking tonight, with the cut off being the NJ Turnpike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 newest hpc outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Just look where the 2.0"+ area is point. Up into eastern / NE PA and north western NJ. At least in the near term this and radar supports scattered heavy rains intermixed with lighter areas of rain. Still to be seen for sure how far east or west the heaviest axis sets-up beyond tonight / early tomorrow. 0.69" as of 7PM Unless ALL of the models are wrong, the axis of heaviest rain is through central PA after early tomorrow. PHLWX poster maybe has it right with the rt 220 axis line. I can see that as a good point for the heavy rain either side. Can the models be wrong? Absolutely. But I tend to lean in that direction ATTM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 newest hpc outlook HPC and the underlying models have been forecasting that axis and general amounts for days now. Uncanny with that signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Unless ALL of the models are wrong, the axis of heaviest rain is through central PA after early tomorrow. PHLWX poster maybe has it right with the rt 220 axis line. I can see that as a good point for the heavy rain either side. Can the models be wrong? Absolutely. But I tend to lean in that direction ATTM. only thing that maybe can move it further east or west is the track of katia. The sooner that curves out to sea i believe the better chance that area shifts east and the other way around also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Wow - my VP2 just recorded a rain rate of 3.51 in/hr. Cats and dogs indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Wow - my VP2 just recorded a rain rate of 3.51 in/hr. Cats and dogs indeed. lol wait till u get a really good downpour...ive seen mine hit 7 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 only thing that maybe can move it further east or west is the track of katia. The sooner that curves out to sea i believe the better chance that area shifts east and the other way around also. The high ridge in Central Atlantic would need to backbuild a bit to push Katia west. The high in Atlantic really drives everything at this point. Katia is following path of least resistance...and yeah, if it is nudged further west the heavy rain axis would be nudged a bit west (or east if track of Katia were east) as well. Just giving credit where credit is due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Unless ALL of the models are wrong, the axis of heaviest rain is through central PA after early tomorrow. PHLWX poster maybe has it right with the rt 220 axis line. I can see that as a good point for the heavy rain either side. Can the models be wrong? Absolutely. But I tend to lean in that direction ATTM. I will not argue that point. Perhaps I meant to allude more to more minor adjustments of say west central vs central vs east central PA as the main axis along with either and expansion or reduction of total qpf extending east and west of that axis. A good drenching for most and for some a possibly very excessive event with moderate to serious flooding issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 vp2 in downtown Easton at 1.41" storm total 1.07" here in Martins Creek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.