Roger Smith Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Katia may not be a total fish storm either, the extratropical remnant hits Iceland on the GFS and Ireland on the ECM. That means Scotland, other parts of the UK, and the Faeroes are probably in the running also. Debbie (9-16-1961) hit Northern Ireland (and northwest Ireland if you catch my drift) probably as an extratropical storm although back then it was still classed as a hurricane, and produced wind gusts over 100 mph doing considerable damage to buildings and trees. The day seven position for Katia on the ECM is basically right over Ireland, and for the GFS, approaching southwest Iceland as a very deep low. So there may eventually be human impacts for this storm beside the swells and the need to navigate around it. Although it appears that southeast Newfoundland is only going to have a glancing blow at worst, too far out to be sure on that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 katia likely peaked in the early pm as a 135 to 140 mph beast based on satelite estimates. my guess now is 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Agreed, the two morning NHC discussions seemed to be behind the times with respect to intensity. katia likely peaked in the early pm as a 135 to 140 mph beast based on satelite estimates. my guess now is 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 They have certainly been on the conservative side of things the past 24-48 hours. Would love to have some recon in there to get some ground truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 They have certainly been on the conservative side of things the past 24-48 hours. Would love to have some recon in there to get some ground truth. I am thinking more like 110-115kts than 100. Dvorak estimates are doing a pretty good job...these are the types of average storm that they are built for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 I am thinking more like 110-115kts than 100. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 I am thinking more like 110-115kts than 100. Exactly. Cloudtops are cooling in the eastern eyewall and are beginning to encircle the eye. The eye also looks to be clearing out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Here is a cool loop of the mesovortices within the eye of Katia. http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~scottb/110905_g13_vis_katia_rso_anim.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Still can't quite close off the eyewall...I wish it could because secondary formation seems to be non-existent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 5, 2011 Author Share Posted September 5, 2011 Still can't quite close off the eyewall...I wish it could because secondary formation seems to be non-existent. that's kinda old. This is the newest AMSU pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 that's kinda old. This is the newest AMSU pass. lol I just looked at the timestamp...oops. something is messed up with the NRL page for me...the button colors are all jacked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 5, 2011 Author Share Posted September 5, 2011 lol I just looked at the timestamp...oops. something is messed up with the NRL page for me...the button colors are all jacked up. I've been using the FNMOC Tropical Applications page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Looking at the infrared images, one could argue that this is the best Katia has looked in her existence. Satellite estimates seem to support it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 that's kinda old. This is the newest AMSU pass. Nice... seems pretty well organized with a closed eyewall, though it still have once nice feeder band to the west, so not quite Annular currently. I've been using the FNMOC Tropical Applications page. Thanks for the info... much better site IMO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 convection is building on the NE side again, and a red ring is forming around the eye again too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 convection is building on the NE side again, and red CDO is forming around the eye again too. hating the elongated look it has, though. TC's shouldn't have a gangster lean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 6, 2011 Author Share Posted September 6, 2011 newest SSMIS pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 6, 2011 Author Share Posted September 6, 2011 ssd dvorak is up to 6.0...and wisconsin ADT is hovering around 6.3...so it may be a minimal Cat 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 FWIW, Katia is now showing up as a T6.0 hurricane on several of the satellite sites. As a result, one should expect an upgrade in the NHC's 11 pm advisory. Whether the NHC will raise the storm to 115 knots/130 mph (Category 4) remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 newest SSMIS pass. very nice... no signs of an EWRC after showing a feeder in the earlier microwave pass. Satellite presentation has really improved too, with obvious PV mixing occurring if you look at a zoomed in WV loop. http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&info=wv&lat=25&lon=-65&zoom=1&type=Animation&numframes=30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 6, 2011 Author Share Posted September 6, 2011 very nice... no signs of an EWRC after showing a feeder in the earlier microwave pass. Satellite presentation has really improved too, with obvious PV mixing occurring if you look at a zoomed in WV loop. http://wwwghcc.msfc....on&numframes=30 there's also a bit more evidence of spiral bands on the latest microwave..so not really annular, yet, at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 i remember from that paper people were referencing earlier, it said the meso-vortices can travel across the eye...it look like in Phils loop that one did just that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 SHIPS was initialized at 115kt, so as long as it holds it own, should have a cat 4 at 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 i remember from that paper people were referencing earlier, it said the meso-vortices can travel across the eye...it look like in Phils loop that one did just that! It was certainly impressive to watch after just reading up on them (thanks Sam, et al) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 ADT numbers in the 125-130kt range! http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2011/adt/text/12L-list.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 ADT numbers in the 125-130kt range! http://www.ssd.noaa....xt/12L-list.txt Why do they use knots vs mph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Why do they use knots vs mph? 1 kt = 1 nautical mile per hour. Aviation, shipping, and marine interests prefer to use nautical miles rather than miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 ...and now we have a cat 4 on our hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Why do they use knots vs mph? I always wonder the opposite-- why anyone here uses mph. When talking about tropical cyclones, the universal unit of wind-speed measurement in technical discussions is kt (or m/sec). Stuff like mph and kph are just for the general public-- like translating to baby talk for the average joe. This is is a technical forum, therefore kt makes sense. Back to Katia... It's not the most attractive Cat 4 I've ever seen-- looks a bit smushed to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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