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Hurricane Maria: NNW Of Bermuda Hurricane Watch Issued

Srain

By Srain,
in Weather Forecasting and Discussion

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dan88

dan88

Posted
Posted

Looks like another upwards bump to the intensity is coming, with the 00z SHIPS initialized at 70kt.

Running out of time quickly though for any more intensification, Maria should cross the 26C isotherm in a few hours, and with the sea surface temperature gradient and brisk forward speed, should be over sub 20C waters by tomorrow morning.

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phil882

phil882

Posted
Posted

Looks like another upwards bump to the intensity is coming, with the 00z SHIPS initialized at 70kt.

Running out of time quickly though for any more intensification, Maria should cross the 26C isotherm in a few hours, and with the sea surface temperature gradient and brisk forward speed, should be over sub 20C waters by tomorrow morning.

As the NHC said though, it won't matter much for Newfoundland. The storm is moving so rapidly that it won't have time to weaken much before making landfall. This could actually be a legitimate hurricane landfall for the Canadian Provence.

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on_wx

on_wx

Posted
Posted

The CHC has issued watches and warnings for eastern Newfoundland. This area was hit real hard by Hurricane Igor last year which was the costliest hurricane in the provinces history. 20,000 people and 150 towns were cut off. They area has been slowly rebuilding. 

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE
OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 6:13 PM ADT THURSDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR:
=NEW= ST. JOHNS AND VICINITY
=NEW= AVALON PENINSULA NORTH
=NEW= AVALON PENINSULA SOUTH.

     MARIA REACHES HURRICANE STATUS THIS EVENING THEN INTERACTS WITH
     A NON-TROPICAL LOW AND TROUGH WITH HIGH WIND AND RAIN OVER
     SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

     A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SUSTAINED GALES...WINDS OF
     63 KM/H OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED IN THE SPECIFIED AREAS WITHIN 24
     HOURS.  BY NATURE A TROPICAL STORM ALSO IMPLIES THE THREAT OF
     LOCAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 8:59 PM ADT THURSDAY 15 SEPTEMBER 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
HURRICANE WATCH FOR:
=NEW= AVALON PENINSULA SOUTH.

     MARIA REACHED HURRICANE STATUS EARLIER THIS EVENING.  THE STORM
     WILL INTERACT WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW AND TROUGH AND CAUSE HIGH
     WIND AND RAIN OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

     A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT A HURRICANE OR AN INCIPIENT
     HURRICANE CONDITION POSES A POSSIBLE THREAT TO THE SPECIFIED
     AREAS WITHIN 36 HOURS.

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HurricaneJosh

HurricaneJosh

Posted
Posted

As the NHC said though, it won't matter much for Newfoundland. The storm is moving so raping that it won't have time to weaken much before making landfall. This this could actually be a legitimate hurricane landfall for the Canadian Provence.

Well... It will be like other hurricane landfalls in the region-- not structurally pure, not with an eye and a core and a backside and features of that nature, but with enough centralization to the weather to continue to call it a 'cane. The current intensity (70 kt) and rapid motion (37 kt) are exactly the ingredients one would expect for a fairly standard, 65-kt, transitioning landfall for this region.

P.S. I'm pretty sure you meant "rapid"-- not "raping". :D

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phil882

phil882

Posted
Posted

Well... It will be like other hurricane landfalls in the region-- not structurally pure, not with an eye and a core and a backside and features of that nature, but with enough centralization to the weather to continue to call it a 'cane. The current intensity (70 kt) and rapid motion (37 kt) are exactly the ingredients one would expect for a fairly standard, 65-kt, transitioning landfall for this region.

P.S. I'm pretty sure you meant "rapid"-- not "raping". :D

Whoops.

Of course it would be transitioning into a mid-latitude cyclone by the time the system makes landfall, but that doesn't also mean it can't do significant damage. The fact that Maria is already mooing at 37 knots means that the storm relative winds around the system need only to be 35 knots on the southeast side for the system to be considered a hurricane. This forward motion is both decreasing the time before landfall limiting the influence of the cold waters it's traveling over and also maintaining a higher wind speed associated with the storm.

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HurricaneJosh

HurricaneJosh

Posted
Posted

Whoops.

Of course it would be transitioning into a mid-latitude cyclone by the time the system makes landfall, but that doesn't also mean it can't do significant damage. The fact that Maria is already mooing at 37 knots means that the storm relative winds around the system need only to be 35 knots on the southeast side for the system to be considered a hurricane. This forward motion is both decreasing the time before landfall limiting the influence of the cold waters it's traveling over and also maintaining a higher wind speed associated with the storm.

Yes, all of the ingredients are in place for a standard, kindatropical, Cat-1 landfall on Newfoundland. I guess what I'm saying is that this is the typical setup for a Canada hit-- ain't nothin' special gonna happen.

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am19psu

am19psu

Posted
Posted

Whoops.

Of course it would be transitioning into a mid-latitude cyclone by the time the system makes landfall, but that doesn't also mean it can't do significant damage. The fact that Maria is already mooing at 37 knots means that the storm relative winds around the system need only to be 35 knots on the southeast side for the system to be considered a hurricane. This forward motion is both decreasing the time before landfall limiting the influence of the cold waters it's traveling over and also maintaining a higher wind speed associated with the storm.

Most of the research I've seen shows that only about half of the forward speed adds on to the Lagrangian max intensity.

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apm

apm

Posted
Posted

Picky, picky. Don't you think it's neat to even come close to hurricane conditions that far north? It is interesting to me the range of weather one can experience in New Foundland; perhaps a denizen of Southern California may have trouble appreciating the wonders of such variety. arrowheadsmiley.png

Yes, all of the ingredients are in place for a standard, kindatropical, Cat-1 landfall on Newfoundland. I guess what I'm saying is that this is the typical setup for a Canada hit-- ain't nothin' special gonna happen.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

Maria lost all of her convection :(

Its lost the deep convection, mostly. But even cloud tops of -50º, not mondo cold, not impressive colors on false color imagery, suggest there is still some convection. Judging by the vis, the cold air is close to wrapping into the core. I suspect this afternoons full advisory will be the last.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

A "hurricane" at this latitude, in this state of transition, and with that forward speed is going to have the highest winds well E of the center, so I'm not surprised.

Guess froky missed the 50 sustained KTs gusting to 68 kts well east of the center. I thought it was cool the center of circ went right over that buoy.

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on_wx

on_wx

Posted
Posted

CHC technical discussion @ 330pm NDT

WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MARIA IS RAPIDLY BECOMING

POST-TROPICAL, WITH DECREASING DEEP CONVECTION AND AN INCREASINGLY

RAGGED APPEARANCE, ITS RECENT TRAVERSAL NEAR SOME OFFSHORE WEATHER

BUOYS INDICATE IT STILL HAS A TIGHT TROPICAL CORE WITH A VERY STRONG

WIND AND PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR ITS CENTRE. THUS WE WILL MAINTAIN

MARIA AS A MARGINAL HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL, WHICH WILL LIKELY

BE SHORTLY AFTER THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED. MARIA IS SPEEDING ALONG

AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS, AND WITH THE HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IT IS

CLEAR THAT MARIA'S CIRCULATION IS TILTED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.

THIS HAS MADE PINPOINTING MARIA'S EXACT SURFACE POSITION DIFFICULT,

BUT AN 11Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS ALLOWED A GOOD CENTRE FIX WHICH WHEN

EXTRAPOLATED TO VISIBILE SATELLITE IMAGERY GAVE A BETTER INDICATION

OF MARIA'S CENTRE - WHICH WAS JUST SLIGHTLY MORE EASTWARD THAN

PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. ALSO - A WEATHER BOUY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GRAND

BANKS REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 67 KNOTS (124 KM/H) AT 1:30 PM NDT.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

Its funny that this is a hurricane with a 50 knot forward speed... that's essentially saying the actual storm relative circulation is somewhere around 15-20 knots in intensity. That fact alone suggests its quickly losing its identity within the mean flow.

That 15-20 knots, does that mean it has -30 knots (or a South wind) West of the center? That doesn't sound quite right.

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