phlwx Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 How many more times do meteorologists have to reiterate how bad using the NAM is for tropical cyclones before folks finally start listening and stop to mention it. In today's run you can see a large area of bogus 850mb vorticity to the south of the system affecting the motion of Maria and pulling it much further south than it should. You frankly just can't trust the NAM with most of its vorticity in the tropical Atlantic. I think it'll take someone taking the supercomputer that it's run on and dropping it on some random weenie's head for them to realize it...perhaps in a "this is the NAM...this is the NAM on drugs" type moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 Over the past 24 hours, Tropical Storm Maria has been tracking steadily west-northwestward (287°). That motion has remained remarkably stable with a slight tendency to increase the northward motion over the past 12 hours-18 hours. However, Maria has been decelerating during the course of that time. The last three advisories have seen Maria with a forward speed in the 14 mph-16 mph range. In contrast, 24 hours ago, Maria had a forward motion of just over 20 mph. Maria's Trajectory: 12-Hour Period Ended: 9/9 11 am: 284° 9/9 2 pm: 279° 9/9 5 pm: 289° 9/9 8 pm: 290° 6-Hour Trajectory: 296° 24-Hour Trajectory: 287° At present, the hurricane and global models are in good agreement that Maria will recurve and avoid U.S. landfall. The ECMWF, which has displayed a south and west bias with Irene and Katia for a time, has now moved into agreement with the other guidance. The ECMWF ensembles continue to take Maria on a course more to the south and west. At this time, given the model consensus and analog storms, I belive the ECMWF ensembles are an outlier. As a result, I will not adjust my estimated track tonight. That the first point had a large error is noted, but it appears that the rest of the track is fairly close to the new model consensus. There is some tendency in the recent model runs to suggest that the recurvature might be somewhat sharper than I presently outlined. Track Estimates: 15.0N 55.0W; Actual: 13.3N 55.0W; Error: 117 miles--26.5 hours in advance 20.0N 66.4W 25.0N 72.5W 30.0N 72.0W 35.0N 69.0W Finally, an increasing number of the hurricane models now take Maria to peak intensity as a major hurricane. As previously noted, the historic climatology suggested that Maria would likely peak as a major hurricane (probably Category 3, small chance at Category 4). My guess remains that Maria will likely top out as a Category 3 hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 Certainly doesn't look like a tropical cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 just about the ugliest TS I've ever seen... should be downgraded soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 looks a lot like a tropical wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 just about the ugliest TS I've ever seen... should be downgraded soon I sencond that...There's been plenty of ugly this season. Hope next few weeks are interesting atleast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 looks a lot like a tropical wave. The well respected trop. met., "57", thinks it has been open since yesterday. Review of 27 analogs (storms moving at heading of less than 280 degrees from near where Maria born to ~54W): - 9 recurves: relatively low % for recurves considering that these are MDR storms - 8 CONUS hits - 8 dissipations...i.e., very believable from climo perspective as this is a respectable %..i.e., almost as many as recurves - 2 hits S of TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 is there vorticity w the southern part of maria....that appears to be movin south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 make that west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 Seems to be stronger than the 35kt advisory strength, 52kt flight level, with relatively large regions of 45+kt at 950mb and 40kt+ on the SFMR (and a SFMR peak of 55kt, though while unflagged is in convection). 153000 1747N 06040W 9580 00435 0081 +178 +166 127043 048 044 012 01 153030 1748N 06039W 9576 00439 0081 +182 +168 131043 046 055 020 00 153100 1748N 06037W 9601 00436 0086 +182 +170 124048 051 052 022 01 153130 1749N 06036W 9574 00442 0080 +184 +155 124047 048 047 015 00 153200 1750N 06035W 9581 00437 0079 +187 +162 126048 049 042 013 00 153230 1751N 06034W 9585 00433 0078 +195 +157 128049 050 042 012 00 153300 1752N 06033W 9584 00434 0080 +191 +159 128046 048 043 011 00 153330 1753N 06032W 9580 00440 0081 +186 +168 132047 048 044 015 00 153400 1754N 06031W 9579 00442 0081 +191 +164 130046 048 043 012 00 153430 1755N 06030W 9581 00441 0085 +199 +161 128048 049 042 005 01 153500 1756N 06028W 9577 00445 0081 +206 +166 129047 049 041 004 01 153530 1757N 06027W 9577 00445 0080 +209 +169 126043 047 037 004 00 153600 1758N 06026W 9586 00438 0080 +213 +168 124043 044 038 001 00 153630 1759N 06025W 9576 00447 0080 +212 +171 123044 045 040 005 01 153700 1800N 06024W 9574 00450 0082 +206 +182 119047 050 040 004 00 153730 1801N 06023W 9590 00435 0081 +212 +187 120051 052 041 003 01 153800 1802N 06022W 9576 00448 0081 +212 +180 117049 050 042 001 00 153830 1803N 06021W 9578 00447 0083 +212 +178 118050 051 041 002 01 153900 1803N 06021W 9578 00447 0085 +207 +183 119048 049 041 004 00 153930 1805N 06019W 9581 00446 0085 +205 +180 119047 049 041 002 00 154000 1805N 06018W 9583 00445 0087 +206 +183 117045 047 039 004 01 154030 1806N 06016W 9580 00449 0086 +213 +186 119046 047 041 003 01 154100 1807N 06015W 9576 00452 0086 +214 +186 120047 047 040 003 01 154130 1808N 06014W 9577 00451 0087 +211 +188 121046 047 040 005 00 154200 1809N 06013W 9580 00450 0088 +210 +176 121046 047 039 005 01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 10, 2011 Share Posted September 10, 2011 Looks like with the recon observations, they will be going up to 40kt with the next advisory, at least the SHIPS was initialize with that intensity. Otherwise, it is looking at least a bit better this afternoon. Have had convection developing not all that far from the surface circulation, and the surface circulation, while expose, surely appears to be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 11, 2011 Share Posted September 11, 2011 Maria looks like it will pull through... recon shows a significantly better organized wind field with pretty much the tightest center its had in several days. With the shear upcoming, it still might struggle to make it to hurricane intensity, but I think it will survive long enough to make it to extra-tropical transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 11, 2011 Share Posted September 11, 2011 First vortex message in quite some time with Maria, last couple missions there wasn't enough of a center to do one 000 URNT12 KNHC 110404 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142011 A. 11/03:21:40Z B. 18 deg 26 min N 062 deg 58 min W C. 850 mb 1469 m D. 24 kt E. 174 deg 15 nm F. 202 deg 19 kt G. 178 deg 40 nm H. 1007 mb I. 19 C / 1523 m J. 19 C / 1526 m K. 19 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 134 / 08 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF307 0514A MARIA OB 17 MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 58 KT NE QUAD 03:52:40Z FREQ LTG NE QUAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 Completely exposed low level center this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 Given Maria's difficulties to date, including lack of development even when conditions were relatively more favorable than early in Maria's existence, I doubt that Maria will intensify beyond a Category 1 storm. I still expect that Maria will ultimately become a hurricane. There is a small but shrinking possibility that it might reach Category 2 strength (some model support). In terms of its track, my latest thinking is that Maria will recurve and probably farther from the U.S. than I had initially thought. The Euro remains to the west of the model consensus, and I have given it some weight. However, as has been the case with Irene and Katia prior to Maria, the Euro has had a bias of taking storms too far to the west. Hence, even as I give the ECMWF some consideration, I give greater weight to the recent runs of the GFS. Estimated Track: 25.0N 70.0W 30.0N 69.5W 35.0N 67.5W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 Poor tropical afficionadoes... Don't think TD 18W will be cheering them up anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 BULLETINTROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 500 PM AST TUE SEP 13 2011 ...MARIA MOVING NORTHWARD...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.8N 67.9W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM E OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 A touch better than yesterday. But about 1 good day from Katia, and otherwise the basin has been sad from a satellite afficionado's perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 Looks like Bermuda will get a nice southerly gale courtesy of Maria tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 73kt flight level, intensity up to 55kt, Hurricane watch up for Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Thank you, Dan. I can't believe how dead it has gotten in here. After all, it's the only action we've got at the moment. 73kt flight level, intensity up to 55kt, Hurricane watch up for Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 I'd say 990 75. Finally on the 20th try it has gotten it's act together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Maria 2005: Maria 2011: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Looks to be making a run at hurricane strength this morning. 12z ships was initialized with 60kt, so it looks to be just shy of a hurricane with the next advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Looks like we have the third hurricane of the season if it can hold it's own until 5pm, SHIPS was initialized with 65kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 It is a hurricane now-- with a Hurricane Watch for Newfoundland. How lame for peak season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 It is a hurricane now-- with a Hurricane Watch for Newfoundland. How lame for peak season. BUT BERMUDA GUSTED TO 43KTSSS!!!!!111!!!1! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 BUT BERMUDA GUSTED TO 43KTSSS!!!!!111!!!1! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 So Maria took exactly 9 days to become a hurricane? Anyone know the record off-hand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Now imagine if Irene had moved this fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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