Hurricane Maria: NNW Of Bermuda Hurricane Watch Issued

[Srain]

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AL, 95, 2011090506, , BEST, 0, 90N, 285W, 20, 1009, DB, 34,

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 AM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE

KATIA...LOCATED ABOUT 605 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE

CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME

DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES

WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20

PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

[GaWx]

The current heading of ~270 degrees for 95L is definitely much better than the ~293 degrees of Katia for the same area for those who desire later U.S. action. Based on the database of 79 TC's in this area, nothing with a heading of 281+ degrees later hit the CONUS whereas a whopping 50% with a heading of 270 deg. or lower later hit and the average furthest west they got was all the way to 72W (over 60% made it past 70W). Unfortunately for predictive purposes, this data was based on only actual TC's. Since 95L isn't yet a TC near the longitude that was analyzed, the data can't be explicitly used to establish probabilities of how far west it will ultimately go. However, the general heading idea could seemingly be kept in mind as somewhat of a positive factor for those who prefer it get pretty far west.

FWIW:

1) 0Z 9/5 Euro takes this to just S of C Cuba on 9/14.

2) 0Z 9/5 GFS recurves this near 72W on 9/12 but the 6Z takes this into S FL 9/14.

3) The model consensus is for more ridging/less troughing in the western Atlantic vs. how it looked 10 days out for Katia. The troughing is further west near 85W.

[Srain]

12Z...

[GaWx]

12Z...

The BAMS appear to be too far north vs. the GFS/Euro. I'm leaning more to the more westerly GFS/Euro based on the current westerly/270 degree heading as well as the changing overall pattern. We'll see.

[donsutherland1]

The current heading of ~270 degrees for 95L is definitely much better than the ~293 degrees of Katia for the same area for those who desire later U.S. action. Based on the database of 79 TC's in this area, nothing with a heading of 281+ degrees later hit the CONUS whereas a whopping 50% with a heading of 270 deg. or lower later hit and the average furthest west they got was all the way to 72W (over 60% made it past 70W). Unfortunately for predictive purposes, this data was based on only actual TC's. Since 95L isn't yet a TC near the longitude that was analyzed, the data can't be explicitly used to establish probabilities of how far west it will ultimately go. However, the general heading idea could seemingly be kept in mind as somewhat of a positive factor for those who prefer it get pretty far west.

FWIW:

1) 0Z 9/5 Euro takes this to just S of C Cuba on 9/14.

2) 0Z 9/5 GFS recurves this near 72W on 9/12 but the 6Z takes this into S FL 9/14.

3) The model consensus is for more ridging/less troughing in the western Atlantic vs. how it looked 10 days out for Katia. The troughing is further west near 85W.

I agree. IMO, this is a system that has potential to pose a threat to the Caribbean down the road, unless the system races westward before the troughing over the Atlantic relaxes. In about 10 days at least some of the GFS ensembles are indicating a pattern quite conducive to a trans-Atlantic crossing of such storms.

[Ian]

I like this one if for nothing else it seems once we get on across another often comes close or makes it (not counting Katia as it never really was a real threat to do so IMO). Pattern does appear more favorable should it get into position in about a week.

[blazess556]

12z GFS has 95L as a tropical entity north of Hispaniola at 150 hrs.

[GaWx]

12z GFS has 95L as a tropical entity north of Hispaniola at 150 hrs.

95L then hits Cape Cod and ME on 9/16 on the 12Z 9/5 GFS. In contrast, the GFS never quite had an actual center landfall in the CONUS with Katia as far as I recall.

9/5 model runs' summary for 95-L:

GFS:

0Z 9/5 GFS recurve 72W.

6Z 9/5 GFS hits S FL 9/14 as a weak low

12Z 9/5 GFS hits Cape Cod/ME 9/16.

0Z 9/5 Euro gets to C Cuba 9/14 when the run ends.

Irene started off somewhat similarly with the models 10-12 days out when the GFS was hitting the CONUS every run from 8/15 onward. That first modeled hit was on NC and up the coast. Also, like Irene (and unlike Katia), 95-L is modeled to not do much until it gets pretty far west..when getting pretty close to the Caribbean.

[peribonca]

looking very nice on visible satellite loop. looks like it was some westerly flow already... wouldn't be surprised to see a TD by this evening

[Zachary Lassiter]

1. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SURFACE LOWPRESSURE SYSTEM...IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTERORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND ENVIRONMENTALCONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICALDEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS AHIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURINGTHE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ATABOUT 15 MPH.

[blazess556]

Through 96 hrs, the Euro is much farther south compared to the rest of the models. 95L is about to enter the caribbean.

[Cheeznado]

Through 96 hrs, the Euro is much farther south compared to the rest of the models. 95L is about to enter the caribbean.

south of P.R. at 132-this is very consistent with the 00Z Euro run. Keeps it weak until it gets pretty far west, This is probably necessary to avoid a recurve. I am liking what I am seeing from the Euro so far, if this scenario sticks around for a few more runs, time to get at least a bit excited. For now, just an interesting system to keep an eye on.

[snowNH]

Anybody see the 7-10 day GFS? Almost looks Irene like with a storm forming east of Hispanola then heads up to NE.

[phil882]

I don't think there is much chance for an early re-curve with this one. If it does try to develop, the mid-level ridge to the north will ensure it won't get too far to the north. This ridge extends very far to the west in the early going, as its the same one steering Katia northwestward right now.

[GaWx]

9/5 model runs' summary for 95-L (updated to add 12Z Euro):

GFS:

0Z 9/5 GFS recurve 72W on 9/12 as very weak low.

6Z 9/5 GFS hits S FL 9/14 as a weak low.

12Z 9/5 GFS hits Cape Cod/ME 9/16.

Euro:

0Z 9/5 Euro gets to C Cuba 9/14 when the run ends.

12Z 9/5 Euro gets to 79W just off SE FL 9/14 as a very weak low and then recurves E of the SE coast

Based on these model runs alone and assuming 95-L ends up developing into a TC, the suggestion is that any possible impact on FL would be somewhere around 9/14 (with potential later impact either up the U.S. east coast or into the Gulf). So, these models are implying something close to nine days to get from its current ~32W location. Based on old tracks, nine days from 32W to FL would be quite believable.

[Srain]

18Z...

[HurricaneJosh]

We already had one cyclone unravel to total crap as it went up the coast. How many more good specimens do we need to see thrown in the garbage can? It would be exciting to have a real hurricane landfall this year.

[Ian]

Ugh-- it looked like it had a bright future, and now we're once again talking about recurves and New England swipes. Ugh!

Hopefully only in subforums as talking about New England now would be donkey like.

[HurricaneJosh]

You guys have your gulf storm that will form. Right?

Well, that one is a total crap shoot. It would be cool, though.

Listen, I don't begrudge the Northeast a hurricane-- I know it's been a while for you guys. But it would just be nice to see a little variety. I feel like the NC-to-ME zone keeps coming up in the modeling. It's very 1954/1955.

[thewxmann]

Before we talk about landfall points, it ought to be noted that most of the models paint a significant shear zone just north of 95L in the next few days. If this gains any latitude it will get ripped by shear. Instead, modeling seems to be latching onto the next wave as a potential threat down the line.

[snowNH]

Well, that one is a total crap shoot. It would be cool, though.

Listen, I don't begrudge the Northeast a hurricane-- I know it's been a while for you guys. But it would just be nice to see a little variety. I feel like the NC-to-ME zone keeps coming up in the modeling. It's very 1954/1955.

I understand. The storm that got me into hurricanes was Katrina and that was 1000 miles away. Actually all 2005 for that matter. I would love to see a gulf smasher. IMO there's nothing better than a hurricane taking up the entire gulf.

[GaWx]

Ugh-- it looked like it had a bright future, and now we're once again talking about recurves and New England swipes. Ugh!

I disagree totally with your negative take. This imo has a much higher chance to get into the Caribbean and/or hit the U.S. (East Coast or Gulf Coast) than Katia ever had, which I never had at more than 10% for a CONUS hit due to too high of an E ATL heading and consistent model runs showing no hit and too low pressure in the W ATL. OTOH, 95-L is moving near a favorable 270 degrees, is expected to develop more slowly, and has decent model support to at least get pretty far west (last two GFS and last two Euro get it at least to 77W) due to a more favorable west Atlantic (closer to a true Bermuda high vs. the western ATL troughiness for Katia). This is looking much closer to an Irene than a Katia trackwise with a solid FL or other U.S. hit one of the reasonable possibilities as opposed to just a skirting of the east coast.

[GaWx]

Before we talk about landfall points, it ought to be noted that most of the models paint a significant shear zone just north of 95L in the next few days. If this gains any latitude it will get ripped by shear. Instead, modeling seems to be latching onto the next wave as a potential threat down the line.

The models are latching onto 95-L, but keeping it weak at least for awhile. I'm guessing that that weakness will probably help to keep it at a low lat. for awhile.

[phil882]

Ugh-- it looked like it had a bright future, and now we're once again talking about recurves and New England swipes. Ugh!

I'm certainly not sold on this yet for 95L because:

1. Its beyond 120 hours.

2. Both the ECWMF and GFS show the ULL associated with Lee hanging around for quite a long period of time. I'm wondering of the models are not being progressive enough, especially the ECWMF because that tends to be its bias in the long range.

3. The GFS suggests that the +NAO pattern to persist, although uncertainty increases beyond 120 hours. This would tend to suppress any sort of mid-level ridge height anomalies north of Bermuda that would allow for a northward track towards New England.

In the end, as always there is plenty of time to watch how things evolve, and I think this has a greater than normal chance to threaten the United States down the road.

[saltysenior]

We already had one cyclone unravel to total crap as it went up the coast. How many more good specimens do we need to see thrown in the garbage can? It would be exciting to have a real hurricane landfall this year.

i thought you were my friend.........it might be exciting for a few, but for untold numbers that occasion is far from ''exciting''.

[Srain]

Meh. If the intensity happy Hurricane models are keeping this weak, I'd bet 'a dollar to a donut' this heads W of 50 before developing…

[Juliancolton]

I understand. The storm that got me into hurricanes was Katrina and that was 1000 miles away. Actually all 2005 for that matter. I would love to see a gulf smasher. IMO there's nothing better than a hurricane taking up the entire gulf.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Seems pretty far south and models don't show significant strengthening. If I had to bet I'd say we might be looking at a Caribbean Cruiser…albeit it might be a naked LLC cruiser.

[Sleetfreak]

You are so right in your attitude and opinion. The destruction and damage caused by irene has caused too many people heartache and misery. And we dont have the money to take care of all the disasters that have hit this country ie: Lee, Joplin MS, east coast irene. Fema only has $800 mill left till the end of the year.. The east coast doen't need another hurricane. The additional destruction would be unbelievable.

I'll take another hurricane Gilbert (since I'm not old enough to remember 1988), except stronger; might as well break Wilma's 882 mb central pressure record while we're at it. I bet Josh would love it; triple tightly coiled major hurricane impacts: Jamaica, Cancun, and finally northeast Mexico. No U.S. landfall, but hurricane force gusts and a tease for south Texas and NOAA's Hurricane Research Division gets enough cat-5 data flying research missions over the northwest Caribbean to study for another twenty years

[OSUmetstud]

If you're hoping for something good...I'd feel a lot better if this thing gets into the Caribbean. The US East troughing is pretty far south on the GFS and Euro ensembles...which would seem to imply a recurve if it gets too far north of the Antilles.