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Lee Obs.


HWY316wx

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Seems the models caught onto the dissipating heavy rain threat along and east of the Apps. Best forcing and rains are stationary along and west of the mountains. Had some on and off showers here today, but we have had many dry hours.

Only 0.29" in the gauge. A far cry from the 6-10" that was predicted just 24-36 hours ago.

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Here we go, everyone stay safe. New Tornado Watch out.

ww0840_radar.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 840

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

345 PM EDT MON SEP 5 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA

WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA

WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL

1100 PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS

TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH OF COLUMBUS

GEORGIA TO 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF HICKORY NORTH CAROLINA.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO

WATCH NUMBER 839. WATCH NUMBER 839 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER

345 PM EDT. CONTINUE...WW 838...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND

INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING IN ADVANCE OF DEEP-LAYER

CYCLONE SLOWLY LIFTING NEWD THROUGH AL. THE COMBINATION OF A

MOIST/LCL AIR MASS AND STRENGTHENING LOW- AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL

RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING

STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND

GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.

MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21030.

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As I had metioned in the T.S. Lee thread, the Douglasville to Holly Springs storm had strong rotation

for at least 30 minutes...especially at the 242 PM FFC radar loop west of Marietta. Could have been

multiple tornadoes, or perhaps a long-tracked one. A different storm popped up and headed to the

same area, especially near Acworth with a strong signature. At the moment, that storm still has a

good signature between Canton and Waleska and is still moving Northeast.

Dangerous day across this region.

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As I had metioned in the T.S. Lee thread, the Douglasville to Holly Springs storm had strong rotation

for at least 30 minutes...especially at the 242 PM FFC radar loop west of Marietta. Could have been

multiple tornadoes, or perhaps a long-tracked one. A different storm popped up and headed to the

same area, especially near Acworth with a strong signature. At the moment, that storm still has a

good signature between Canton and Waleska and is still moving Northeast.

Dangerous day across this region.

Damage just west and south Marietta, going to go take a look in a little bit. Another Tornado Warning is in the south part of Cobb getting ready to move through the same area again....

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Hoping for lots of rain tonight, but to have been in the forecasted precip max this sure has been a real failstorm. Sitting at .88" and echoes are disappating as they hit the escarpment before they get here. I'm in the screw zone for the last few hours.

Hope everyone in the path of these warned storms are safe!

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The Peachtree City storm will impact the Southern and Eastern portions of the Atlanta area shortly. At the

very least, probably a severe storm with damaging winds. As for Cobb county, the third tornado-warned

storm does not look as strong from a velocity standpoint as the previous two, but additional storms

trail the third one and could also pose a threat. Hopefully everyone stays safe out there.

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This is one of the more impressive cases of TC induced tornado-genesis that I've seen. The breaks in the clouds further to the east in SC/NC are not a good sign. As the upper level trough continues to progress eastward, just a little bit of added instability will give these cells just enough gas to tap into the deep layer shear to allow supercells to form. I expect the mini-supercell / tornado threat to continue for locations eastward into central SC and NC later into this evening.

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This is one of the more impressive cases of TC induced tornado-genesis that I've seen. The breaks in the clouds further to the east in SC/NC are not a good sign. As the upper level trough continues to progress eastward, just a little bit of added instability will give these cells just enough gas to tap into the deep layer shear to allow supercells to form. I expect the mini-supercell / tornado threat to continue for locations eastward into central SC and NC later into this evening.

What about the models, including the 18z NAM, showing absolutely no precipitation over these regions in the next 12 hours? What are they missing?

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