My Winter outlook 2012

[Snowstorms]

Is now out on my blog. Check it out if you want to.

http://weatherintoronto.blogspot.com/2011/09/my-preliminary-winter-outlook-2012.html

Comments and questions will be appericated.

Lets hope its another great Winter season.

Thanks!

[Roy]

I have got to move out of West Texas. The only outlook that gives us average temps/precip is the Old Farmer's Almanac...lol. I hate La Nina. At least back home in KS, it still snows and rains, even if it is a bit warmer than normal.

[Snowstorms]

I have got to move out of West Texas. The only outlook that gives us average temps/precip is the Old Farmer's Almanac...lol. I hate La Nina. At least back home in KS, it still snows and rains, even if it is a bit warmer than normal.

Haha. Well not every La Nina is bad for Texas but I suspect you may get a cold outbreak or two in the Winter though in general I expect above normal temperatures and near normal precip for Texas.

[JoMo]

Near normal for Texas would be an upgrade.

Outlook looks like it's what one would normally expect.

[DFWWeather]

I wouldn't write Texas off just yet for this winter. Many forecasts called for a much above normal winter last year for Texas, and at DFW we were barely above normal and it all happened the last half of February. Had we not had the warming we had the last 15 days of February we would have been below normal for the winter. December and January were below normal. Mid-January to mid-february was much below normal. The core of the heat this summer has been back over Texas and that usually correlates with some cold departures in winter. In La Nina winters, it is usually December and January where the coldest periods occur. I would not be surprised if a few forecasts don't bust this year, especially in December. February I agree will probably end up above normal. Some of our wildest cold outbreaks also occur in La Nina winters as well, even though the average for the winter ends up being above normal. A good example of this is December 1989 (I think we had a weak La Nina that year or were pulling out of one) and of course last winter. At DFW in December of 89 one of the coldest airmasses in 50 years settled upon the state with a record low of 1 below zero on December 23, 1989.

[Quixotic1]

I wouldn't write Texas off just yet for this winter. Many forecasts called for a much above normal winter last year for Texas, and at DFW we were barely above normal and it all happened the last half of February. Had we not had the warming we had the last 15 days of February we would have been below normal for the winter. December and January were below normal. Mid-January to mid-february was much below normal. The core of the heat this summer has been back over Texas and that usually correlates with some cold departures in winter. In La Nina winters, it is usually December and January where the coldest periods occur. I would not be surprised if a few forecasts don't bust this year, especially in December. February I agree will probably end up above normal. Some of our wildest cold outbreaks also occur in La Nina winters as well, even though the average for the winter ends up being above normal. A good example of this is December 1989 (I think we had a weak La Nina that year or were pulling out of one) and of course last winter. At DFW in December of 89 one of the coldest airmasses in 50 years settled upon the state with a record low of 1 below zero on December 23, 1989.

Outbreaks yes. Sustained cold, no. Look at some of the hottest, driest summers that were either la nina or transitioning to la nina: 1998, 1954, and 1956. (I wasn't sure about including 1934 since all I have to go on is the SOI and it was all over the place). They were warm. Anywho, I think we'll oscillate wildly due to the dry conditions but generally stay on the warm side.

[Snowstorms]

I wouldn't write Texas off just yet for this winter. Many forecasts called for a much above normal winter last year for Texas, and at DFW we were barely above normal and it all happened the last half of February. Had we not had the warming we had the last 15 days of February we would have been below normal for the winter. December and January were below normal. Mid-January to mid-february was much below normal. The core of the heat this summer has been back over Texas and that usually correlates with some cold departures in winter. In La Nina winters, it is usually December and January where the coldest periods occur. I would not be surprised if a few forecasts don't bust this year, especially in December. February I agree will probably end up above normal. Some of our wildest cold outbreaks also occur in La Nina winters as well, even though the average for the winter ends up being above normal. A good example of this is December 1989 (I think we had a weak La Nina that year or were pulling out of one) and of course last winter. At DFW in December of 89 one of the coldest airmasses in 50 years settled upon the state with a record low of 1 below zero on December 23, 1989.

I'm expecting slightly above normal temperatures for Texas this month but come January much of those warm anomalies will be suppressed further south so I wouldn't be surprised if some regions of Texas and surrounding areas received a few below normal temperature days and perhaps some snow embedded though I expect near normal precipitation for Texas this Winter.

Though I am expecting a slightly stronger SE Ridge this Winter as opposed to last Winter so thats the catch but we'll see how strong this La Nina gets and whether its East Based or West Based. NOAA has already declared a Weak La Nina.

I will post my Winter outlook maps here in a bit.

[nj2va]

Thanks, interesting read. Would love us to have above average snowfall.

[weathafella]

Since you list my area in much above snowfall, I like you.