downeastnc Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Well we had our thread for Irene in here and it was more manageable than the main thread so lets do it again.....I was hesitant to start this but it is looking more and more likely that she is going to get way further west than we thought just a few days ago. We are only a few more west trends away from the models showing a NC/SE landfall. At the very least the OBX are looking at exactly what they dont need right now....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 My odds : 90% - Fish 5% - brushes Massachusetts 4% - moves in the Bahamas and across Florida 1% - Hits NC/SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Saw Matthew East's and Allan Huffman's blog today. They both said it would not take much of a change for Katina to hit the southeast. Needs to be watched closely for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Saw Matthew East's and Allan Huffman's blog today. They both said it would not take much of a change for Katina to hit the southeast. Needs to be watched closely for sure. Freudian slip? Edit : I think the whole idea of this plowing into the SE is all hype. The odds are just not there, setup screams re-curve, it seems like it would take a lot to get this into the NC/SC area..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 Freudian slip? Edit : I think the whole idea of this plowing into the SE is all hype. The odds are just not there, setup screams re-curve, it seems like it would take a lot to get this into the NC/SC area..... I disagree it could very well hit NC on the recurve, on the latest runs its not far from it already maybe 100-150 miles east of Hatteras and a weak hurricane cutting over or just offshore the OBX would be really bad right now, much less a strong one. Also the rem low of Lee over the deep interior SE may actually pull Katia more WNW, and therefore flatten out the recurve and bring Katia in more like a Hugo or Fran....so while overall the setup screams recurve it usually does with storms approaching the EC, and it will right up to the point the models run their first landfall prolly tomorrow or Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I disagree it could very well hit NC on the recurve, on the latest runs its not far from it already maybe 100-150 miles east of Hatteras and a weak hurricane cutting over or just offshore the OBX would be really bad right now, much less a strong one. Also the rem low of Lee over the deep interior SE may actually pull Katia more WNW, and therefore flatten out the recurve and bring Katia in more like a Hugo or Fran....so while overall the setup screams recurve it usually does with storms approaching the EC, and it will right up to the point the models run their first landfall prolly tomorrow or Sunday. Models already show the first landfall. The UKMET has it going into the Bahamas. To each their own, but based on what mets are saying in the main thread,and what the models show, an EC landfall seems very unlikely. I can't see how Katia would get pulled far enough north to head towards NC/SC and in the same light escape getting recurved by the trough that would pull it to a latitude to effect NC/SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Well, the models had Irene in the gulf at one point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Well, the models had Irene in the gulf at one point. Irene is not Katia, much different setup and things are much more clear about Katia's future than it ever was until a couple days before Irene hit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I think Larry needs to keep his head up, and eyes out to sea! That thing could easily slam into barriers if it's brakes happen to fail... or it's going to fast for the curve, lol. I don't trust these things until the are north of Bermuda. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 Models already show the first landfall. The UKMET has it going into the Bahamas. To each their own, but based on what mets are saying in the main thread,and what the models show, an EC landfall seems very unlikely. I can't see how Katia would get pulled far enough north to head towards NC/SC and in the same light escape getting recurved by the trough that would pull it to a latitude to effect NC/SC. Not sure I follow you re: the bolded, if the models trend west like they did with Earl for instance and the storm recurves to late then because of the way NC sticks out we get in the way....I am not saying that is going to happen but the chances that it is going to get close seems to be going up and its damn sure a lot higher than it was several days ago when this thing was going to fish or hit Bermuda. Models already have this thing recurving at around 73W thats exactly 120 miles east of Hatteras thats as close as they want to see it and any further shift to the west put NC in play. Remember models always TREND one way or the other in this range the solutions we see now is not the final call and it can and will move west and east, I remember folks on here writing off Irene hitting NC based on a 4 day GFS runs, we are talking 7-8 days out.......so the overall trend is what I look at and so far its been west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Not sure I follow you re: the bolded, if the models trend west like they did with Earl for instance and the storm recurves to late then because of the way NC sticks out we get in the way....I am not saying that is going to happen but the chances that it is going to get close seems to be going up and its damn sure a lot higher than it was several days ago when this thing was going to fish or hit Bermuda. Models already have this thing recurving at around 73W thats exactly 120 miles east of Hatteras thats as close as they want to see it and any further shift to the west put NC in play. Remember models always TREND one way or the other in this range the solutions we see now is not the final call and it can and will move west and east, I remember folks on here writing off Irene hitting NC based on a 4 day GFS runs, we are talking 7-8 days out.......so the overall trend is what I look at and so far its been west. Let me straighten this out. I don't think it hits NC. I do not believe this with 100% certainty but I'm in the 90-95% chance category that this re-curves with plenty of distance before it hits the EC. I think this will trend back east again in the end. I also think the west trend is over..... We disagree and I'm not saying you are wrong but I do think the odds of this hitting NC are down in the 1-3% category... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Thanks for providing an alternative to that insufferable tropics forum. As for Katia, I have nothing to offer; I simply want to see how that cone looks at 5pm and 11pm. Oh yea, and am waiting to see what the next UKMET does, lol. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Storm is way to far north currently to effect NC other then some high waves. I am with Marietta on this one. The models will start the ol' east trend soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Well i'm not in either camp until we get some G-IV flights up and out in front of Katia. I am reminded however that even though she is already really far N that Felix made a strong run at NC before being recurved and not until Katia is moving NE away from the mainland can we let our guards down in NC. Some people said there was no way a storm as far N as Ike coule ever get into the GOM either. Best thing to do is watch and wait and see how the models trend out. 12Z HWRF is really far SW of its previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 3, 2011 Author Share Posted September 3, 2011 Well i'm not in either camp until we get some G-IV flights up and out in front of Katia. I am reminded however that even though she is already really far N that Felix made a strong run at NC before being recurved and not until Katia is moving NE away from the mainland can we let our guards down in NC. Some people said there was no way a storm as far N as Ike coule ever get into the GOM either. Best thing to do is watch and wait and see how the models trend out. 12Z HWRF is really far SW of its previous runs. Nogaps hits Cape Hatteras then heads up the coast to LI this is sure to get the NE weenies going.......its the Nogaps though so .....however the HWRF is close to the same thing and is a bit more reliable. It all comes down to Lee and what and where he goes. If he gets cut off over the Tenn Valley then the SE and NC in particular could be in real trouble. The things are am looking for is for her to go west of track short term which the models bringing her further west have and how well the models handle Lee over the next 48-72 hrs. Still plenty of time for things to hash out, but unfortunetly the chances of her getting close to the OBX is getting higher and big waves and higher tides are the exact thing they dont need Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Those colors have to bend eventually.....just can't believe I'm still waiting for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Fishel mentioned something interesting tonight. There are 10 hurricanes with a similar position and time of year to Katia...3 of which made landfall on the NC coast. Gloria, Connie, and Fran. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Seems most models have jumped onto a solution that now moves Lee up the spine of the apps at and into New England and this now allows Katia to make a rather sharp turn. It seems its all gonna boil down to Lee and whether he moves off to the NE faster or stalls out over the deep south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Seems most models have jumped onto a solution that now moves Lee up the spine of the apps at and into New England and this now allows Katia to make a rather sharp turn. It seems its all gonna boil down to Lee and whether he moves off to the NE faster or stalls out over the deep south. Lee to the left of me, Katia to the right, here I am, stuck in the middle with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 3, 2011 Author Share Posted September 3, 2011 Seems most models have jumped onto a solution that now moves Lee up the spine of the apps at and into New England and this now allows Katia to make a rather sharp turn. It seems its all gonna boil down to Lee and whether he moves off to the NE faster or stalls out over the deep south. Yep what Lee does is key if he hangs out in the Tenn valley Katia gets further west if he runs up into NE then she will turn out prolly close to 65-70W. I am thinking the Euro has got a good handle on this, hopefully she stays weak enough to prevent any major surf issues in the OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 I'm going with a less than 1% chance Katia makes a landfall in the US. Lee is not going to be a factor, the big factor is a major trough is going to pick Katia up and move her out to sea. Really guys, I don't see how anyone can think Katia is headed to the CONUS at this point.... It's not even close and giving it a 1% chance is probably very generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 I'm going with a less than 1% chance Katia makes a landfall in the US. Lee is not going to be a factor, the big factor is a major trough is going to pick Katia up and move her out to sea. Really guys, I don't see how anyone can think Katia is headed to the CONUS at this point.... It's not even close and giving it a 1% chance is probably very generous. I disagree with the bolded statement. Lee is a factor. If he hangs out long enough in the Tenn. Valley then he will serve to help steer Katia closer to the coast. However, according to the latest guidance, that appears not as likely anymore. Thus, he will probably move a little more quickly towards the NE. And, even then, he is a factor. He will help to push Katia away from the coast. But, either way, Lee is a contributing factor to the eventual path of Katia. It's all intertwined. I agree that Katia's eventual landfall on the east coast looks doubtful, but that's partially due to the projected path of Lee. It is not independent of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Lee to the left of me, Katia to the right, here I am, stuck in the middle with you. Me too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 I disagree with the bolded statement. Lee is a factor. If he hangs out long enough in the Tenn. Valley then he will serve to help steer Katia closer to the coast. However, according to the latest guidance, that appears not as likely anymore. Thus, he will probably move a little more quickly towards the NE. And, even then, he is a factor. He will help to push Katia away from the coast. But, either way, Lee is a contributing factor to the eventual path of Katia. It's all intertwined. I agree that Katia's eventual landfall on the east coast looks doubtful, but that's partially due to the projected path of Lee. It is not independent of that. I hear you, don't miss that point. But I think the trough is the main steering for Katia not Lee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 3, 2011 Author Share Posted September 3, 2011 Models shifted pretty far west last run in fact it is surprising and suspect even how much further west they came with the Euro and GGEM actually landfalling in NE or the Maritimes. Going to be interesting to see if the 18Z follow that trend or flip back east.......her remaining weak and vertically tilted may also be keeping the LLC heading more WNW she has gone a degree west vs a half a degree north in between the last too fixes this is WNW not NW. The NAM did something interesting with Lee moving it ( or parts of it ) SW and if it was right then that will really open the door for Katia to head further west as it will let the east coast ridge build in some. The good thing is Katia looks to have a hard life in front of her and should never get to be to strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 3, 2011 Author Share Posted September 3, 2011 I'm going with a less than 1% chance Katia makes a landfall in the US. Lee is not going to be a factor, the big factor is a major trough is going to pick Katia up and move her out to sea. Really guys, I don't see how anyone can think Katia is headed to the CONUS at this point.... It's not even close and giving it a 1% chance is probably very generous. From the 5pm NHC disco IT CANNOT BE STRESSED ENOUGH THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO THE EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL STORM LEE AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS OR SO...BUT THE DIVERGENCE ONLY GROWS FROM THERE. COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE...THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AND THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN...WHICH NORMALLY WOULD HAVE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. FURTHERMORE...THE ECMWF...WHICH IS NORMALLY RELIABLE...SWUNG FROM THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDE...SHOWING A MORE WESTWARD MOTION BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED A BIT TO THE WEST TOWARDS THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS...BUT WE WOULD RATHER SEE SOME STABILITY IN THE MODELS BEFORE MAKING A LARGER SHIFT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 If the remanents of Lee are still hanging around over the southeast when Katia comes calling, it could get interesting. Two lows can do a dance. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 If the remanents of Lee are still hanging around over the southeast when Katia comes calling, it could get interesting. Two lows can do a dance. T I have read more about it and people are concerned about Lee interacting with Katia. I think I just don't understand, how a weak decaying TS mashed into a cold front can draw Katia closer. Why doesn't the cold front/trough have enough force to snag up Lee into it and still pull Katia North and East. I don't understand the westward job Katia would have due to Lee. The only thing I can come up with is that Lee slows down the trough enough to allow Katia more westward motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 This evening the Nam was retrograding the Lee back out to sea..and I guess that could happen just as easily as something else. If the trough lifts out leaving a big eddy pool in the atmosphere that Lee just drifts around in, then there would be room for Katia to come in for a hand shake, if it doesn't get caught up in the pull from the energy pulling northward. The Goofy had Katia just hanging out close to the coast for a while, a few days back, so if that happened, and Lee was just coming ashore again after a retrograde out to sea..who knows This setup is fun to watch And the thing that always has fascinated me about hurricanes...they sometimes just do what they want too, despite what we say they'll do T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Another westward shift in the models and I suspect if that sticks at the 06Z runs the track shifts slightly west again at 11am.Still plenty of room for her to recurve and all the models are showing this with the exception of the nogaps. Just alittle to close for comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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