Hoosier Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Still several days away but it seems there is a growing possibility of this system affecting a good portion of the OV. Exact details are uncertain but there is pretty reasonable model consensus on the remnants getting stuck/cut off somewhere in the region, which could lead to a prolonged rain event/possible flooding and maybe some drought relief in some spots. Messy pattern to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Still several days away but it seems there is a growing possibility of this system affecting a good portion of the OV. Exact details are uncertain but there is pretty reasonable model consensus on the remnants getting stuck/cut off somewhere in the region, which could lead to a prolonged rain event/possible flooding and maybe some drought relief in some spots. Messy pattern to say the least 12z OP GFS seems to be an outlier in comparison to its ensemble members. Most of the GEFS tend to wobble the remnants of Lee eastward towards the MA/SE coast without much impact north of the Ohio River. P001 is the one big exception, although it phases the tropical system so well with the northern stream trough that it zips along at pretty good clip, precluding much of a flooding threat. 12z EURO though looks like it'd at least partially support the OP GFS (based on the RH fields, haven't seen QPF). Who knows? It'll be interesting to watch unfold. I'm kinda hoping Lee, Katia and the polar jet s/w somehow merge over Lk Erie and bomb to about 950. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 12z OP GFS seems to be an outlier in comparison to its ensemble members. Most of the GEFS tend to wobble the remnants of Lee eastward towards the MA/SE coast without much impact north of the Ohio River. P001 is the one big exception, although it phases the tropical system so well with the northern stream trough that it zips along at pretty good clip, precluding much of a flooding threat. 12z EURO though looks like it'd at least partially support the OP GFS (based on the RH fields, haven't seen QPF). Who knows? It'll be interesting to watch unfold. I'm kinda hoping Lee, Katia and the polar jet s/w somehow merge over Lk Erie and bomb to about 950. 12z Euro has a surface low in southern Indiana at 168 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 lol, 15z SREFS at 87. Some interesting, although likely wrong/overdone solutions: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 lol...those ARW solutions are on crack. I guess it is trying to phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 lol...those ARW solutions are on crack. I guess it is trying to phase. I can recall many a nor'easter that the ARW tried to pull over my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 3, 2011 Author Share Posted September 3, 2011 12z Euro has the remnant low almost right over LAF at 168 hours. It's important to not get too worked up over the details this far out. General idea of a significant/heavy rain event still looks ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 The GFS ensembles are pretty comical to look at.......literally all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 12z Euro has the remnant low almost right over LAF at 168 hours. It's important to not get too worked up over the details this far out. General idea of a significant/heavy rain event still looks ok. Thats the day of my wedding haha I'll take 100 degrees like today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 12z Euro has the remnant low almost right over LAF at 168 hours. It's important to not get too worked up over the details this far out. General idea of a significant/heavy rain event still looks ok. Does it look like the rain comes here to Toronto on the 12z EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 3, 2011 Author Share Posted September 3, 2011 Does it look like the rain comes here to Toronto on the 12z EURO? Yeah, Toronto gets some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Last 2 or 3 runs of the NAM have been trying to retrograde Lee SW back into the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 4, 2011 Author Share Posted September 4, 2011 Last 2 or 3 runs of the NAM have been trying to retrograde Lee SW back into the Gulf. I cannot believe how different the NAM is. It's one thing if it's like that in its outer periods, but it starts showing radical departures from other guidance much earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 4, 2011 Author Share Posted September 4, 2011 00z Euro continues to show the upper low/remnants of Lee chilling in the OV area for multiple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 00z Euro continues to show the upper low/remnants of Lee chilling in the OV area for multiple days. Might be me but it looks like Katia helps Lee to hang around the OV on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 NAM "complete" kookiness cancel with today's 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 4, 2011 Author Share Posted September 4, 2011 Might be me but it looks like Katia helps Lee to hang around the OV on that run. Yeah it is an interesting pattern. Lee will almost certainly have an impact on where Katia goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 The track has shifted big time from where it was at this point yesterday. Yesterday i believe the track was northeast through the mid atlantic and now it turns it due north through Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Does it still look like the 00z euro brings rain to Toronto? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 4, 2011 Author Share Posted September 4, 2011 Does it still look like the 00z euro brings rain to Toronto? Looks like most of it goes around that area. Decent rains in much of IL/IN/OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Looks like most of it goes around that area. Decent rains in much of IL/IN/OH. Are we talking about 0.50'' to 1.00'' for Toronto? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 4, 2011 Author Share Posted September 4, 2011 Are we talking about 0.50'' to 1.00'' for Toronto? There's some light precip from the cold front before that. Really looks like just about nothing from Lee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Are we talking about 0.50'' to 1.00'' for Toronto? Google "wundermap" and you can see the maps first hand Toronto blizzard. If you need additional help seeing the EURO qpf graphics, PM me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 12z Euro still delivering the goods for the OV/TV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 12z Euro still delivering the goods for the OV/TV. Its the only model just about thats doing so. To bad its the Euro and usually right. I hope its wrong but the wedding will go on either way! Sorry guys, Id be all for it any other weekend of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Its the only model just about thats doing so. To bad its the Euro and usually right. I hope its wrong but the wedding will go on either way! Sorry guys, Id be all for it any other weekend of the year. Don't shoot the messenger. Still 6 or so days out, but you know the drill with weather. Hope for the best...but most of all, enjoy the day...rain or shine. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 5, 2011 Author Share Posted September 5, 2011 Its the only model just about thats doing so. To bad its the Euro and usually right. I hope its wrong but the wedding will go on either way! Sorry guys, Id be all for it any other weekend of the year. Pretty good agreement on the upper low hanging around but the other models are more stingy with precip for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Looks like the models have converged on the idea that the extra-tropical remnants of Lee will move into the OV. Questions to be resolved is how far north and how wet. The primary forcing mechanism west of the Apps is going to be the deformation zone associated with the upper level low. WCB looks like it'll focus along the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 5, 2011 Author Share Posted September 5, 2011 12z Euro more generous with the northward extent of precip with some good amounts well into lower Michigan. 1" qpf grabs Chicago/northeast IL with almost all of IN/OH with a general 1-2" with some locally higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 12z Euro more generous with the northward extent of precip with some good amounts well into lower Michigan. 1" qpf grabs Chicago/northeast IL with almost all of IN/OH with a general 1-2" with some locally higher amounts. Euro FTW again it seems. Looks like the other guidance is moving in its direction. Not a drought breaker, but some much needed rainfall for quite a few spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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