Ian Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I appreciate the training :-) I like probability forecasting but it is confusing. I had to check CWGs FAQ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Kind of hard to understand why I have a 100% chance of rain tonight? The radar looks dead as can be to the south of the DC metro. Are the mets in Sterling straight up riding the models or what? Also, when it's this moist out and this sort of setup, the rain can form directly over your house or neighbor's and sometimes can't be tracked coming in on radar. I noticed that there is a shower (allbeit small) getting ready to move over head and it was no where on radar just 20 minutes ago. The point is the 100 percent forecast is probably a good one, and chances are, near 100 percent of the people in your forecast area will see at least some rain at some point tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I like probability forecasting but it is confusing. I had to check CWGs FAQ. Nice work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Some thunder and lightning starting near my place in Queenstown... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 So, I'm home now and prepping for tomorrow's tornado outbreak. The plane was steaming today (from the air vents) when we came into DC.. never seen that before. Moisture in the air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 So, I'm home now and prepping for tomorrow's tornado outbreak. The plane was steaming today (from the air vents) when we came into DC.. never seen that before. Moisture in the air? Poison gas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 this has been a stellar wx year for us (not counting winter). I enjoyed the winter too. Several dynamic events in Jan-Feb, after a cold, blustery Dec. We've seen worse. My first 54 months with a weather station here, I only recorded 7 with an excess of 5.00" of precip. In 2011, September looks on track to possibly be the 5th in the past 7 months, with another, August just short at 4.70" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 1.6 for the event thusfar. Cool to see the temp stuck within such a tight range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Whoa....locally run ARW is pretty bullish for tomorrow PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 That line from the frame above originates from this (2am frame below) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 NAM is more or less similar to ARW.. I guess I'd probably favor DC south and west. If I knew we'd get sun I'd take the over on 5 torn warnings (not verified) from earlier.. and I guess I might still do so before I go to bed. The setup is very good for some generally/likely weak tornadoes IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 NAM is more or less similar to ARW.. I guess I'd probably favor DC south and west. If I knew we'd get sun I'd take the over on 5 torn warnings (not verified) from earlier.. and I guess I might still do so before I go to bed. The setup is very good for some generally/likely weak tornadoes IMO. Those are probably the "best" kind if you want excitement with little to no fatality risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 2.13" so far at DCA and another 4" or so, sounds like a solid rain event to me. Though I want to see river rapids flowing through Georgetown, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 NAM is more or less similar to ARW.. I guess I'd probably favor DC south and west. If I knew we'd get sun I'd take the over on 5 torn warnings (not verified) from earlier.. and I guess I might still do so before I go to bed. The setup is very good for some generally/likely weak tornadoes IMO. chase in dupont tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 what I was pointing out is that your eyeballing, and over-exaggerating history, have no place in a thread where it's dead easy to look up the actual river level as measured by objective scientific instruments. Read carefully next time. I was asked, in quote, how the Potomac looked physically, not how deep I thought the water was. I described what I saw, and turns out it fit the data perfectly. If you're suspicious I'm exagerrating something (despite having the lowest rain totals in the MA forum to this point), that data is there for you to check...I was not asked how deep I thought the water was, which is why I did not give an answer there. What's the Potomac look like right now? Trix, would you like to stop by? We can walk down to the river-side and fact-check for ourselves, though it's kind of dark and you might slip not knowing the trail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I had 2.5" in 2008-2009. I really enjoy the rainy days now that I'm older. I think I was born a rainy-day person. This is a great area when its cloudy/ stormy. Big enough skies to satisfy me after 25 yrs of metro living. Gonna check out Bedington tomorrow and the River at Williamsport Thursday after work. Hope to get pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 So, I'm home now and prepping for tomorrow's tornado outbreak. The plane was steaming today (from the air vents) when we came into DC.. never seen that before. Moisture in the air? Tornado outbreak or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Whoa....locally run ARW is pretty bullish for tomorrow PM Makes sense to me. We'll be back on the warm side of the front and the closed low is still churning along. NC had some pretty good storms today. Looks like we'll be in the same dynamics and airmass tomorrow. Tropical remnant lows located to our SW have a history of spinning up weak tornados around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Tornado outbreak or bust Only two reports today might not be a good sign, though actually the upper-air is probably a bit better tomorrow up here than it was in NC today. So, I'm not sure. Sun.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 2.13" so far at DCA and another 4" or so, sounds like a solid rain event to me. Though I want to see river rapids flowing through Georgetown, thanks. Woa DCA already has 2.13"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Only two reports today might not be a good sign, though actually the upper-air is probably a bit better tomorrow up here than it was in NC today. So, I'm not sure. Sun.... Hopefully it will work out this time and we will actually get some sun. It would be nice to see a couple more storms this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Woa DCA already has 2.13"? Actually 2.52" for the last two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Hopefully it will work out this time and we will actually get some sun. It would be nice to see a couple more storms this year. I'd guess we'll be hard pressed to see much. We might not even really need it, but it would help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Storm totals in the Lower Susquehanna seem to range from 4.25" at Kmdt to around 5.75" out to the west in Cumberland County, so that tight gradiant appears to be somewhat in line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 2.40 in the bucket thus far. I hope the warm front makes it in here tomorrow to increase thunderstorm potential and because my house is getting chilly now temps have been mainly in the upper 50s the whole day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Storm totals in the Lower Susquehanna seem to range from 4.25" at Kmdt to around 5.75" out to the west in Cumberland County, so that tight gradiant appears to be somewhat in line I'm sure it will generally work out. Perhaps I was overly (sounding at least) dismissive of it earlier. I was more focused on the stuff we've already seen on the eastern edge. Particularly north of here most of the eastern section has done much better than HPC or models would have suggested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Does anyone know if Great Falls park stays open when the Potomac is high? It has to be a sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I have zero wish to have any real life interaction with you. and you have no credibility re: obs. you'd do well to remember that. Aside from your avoiding my original point, you'd make at least some sense if you could bring up just one recent measurement ob that you find suspicious. Of course you won't do it because there are none, every ob I have given over the past 6 months or so has been 100% legitimate. You'd do well to put up or shut up. I was asked how the potomac "looked" physically, the question didn't involve you in any way, AKA, none of your business as you don't live anywhere near here. Your quote, if you have nothing productive to add, Don't add it! Nothing you added in regards to me was productive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Does anyone know if Great Falls park stays open when the Potomac is high? It has to be a sight. Probably not. although, there are some photos available from very close to the river during flooding. But perhaps those were taken by NPS employees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Kevin Ambrose would know. Heres from 2008. Looks like it would be a problem at major levels. http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2008/05/great_falls_in_flood_stage.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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