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Lee's Remnants and the Mid-Atlantic


WxUSAF

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Here is the latest (18z) HPC precipitation guidance from 2 P.M. today till 2 P.M. Thursday. The gradient is pretty tight. In 50 miles you can go from a predicted 7 inch rainfall to a 2 inch rainfall. Take them for what they are worth. CTP in there latest AFD mentioned the possibility of historic flooding if this came to fruition. They are usually a very conservative there so there wording in afternoon AFD was very strong.

post-4667-0-70158000-1315338499.jpg

post-4667-0-81749700-1315338510.jpg

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Yeah, certainly a probability map would make more sense in a convective event, but I think the public has a hard enough time understanding forecast probabilities as is, rather than compounding probabilities with "30% chance of thunderstorms today with a 25% chance of 1" of rain". That's a big bag of WTF... In a convective event, a forecast range would make more sense, IMO. I think the synoptic maps are fine as is for stratiform precip. Still even then you get lollipops, that's just the crap chute that is weather.

Yeah I think it's more difficult in the high gradient areas as all you need is a few hours of training to beat totals. Either way when you're under water you're under water. :)

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There's a nice supercell in Arizona.

/tangent

Nice...

-----

Convective band organizing a bit as it crosses the Bay... line segment moving NE that will pass N of Salisbury looks like it could be packing strong/severe winds. Temp is 71/69 at SBY, so I would think that these storms are rooted to the surface (at least somewhat).

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I can make the images small no problem. What size?. Currently I just take a screenshot of the Google Earth display, which saves it as a .png file. I just write in the corresponding rain amounts and save it as a .jpeg file so its not 8 mb big.

I try to keep things in the 640x480 range. I do it the simpleton way. Open the image in paint and resize and save. I'm sure others do it much more tech savvy.

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I can make the images small no problem. What size?. Currently I just take a screenshot of the Google Earth display, which saves it as a .png file. I just write in the corresponding rain amounts and save it as a .jpeg file so its not 8 mb big.

I usually keep it under 800px wide myself... thanks in advance! I'm fairly sure the details will be just as legible in the smaller images. Smaller file sizes will also help in that your upload quota won't max out as quickly :)

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Irene really under delivered out this way, so if the predicted gradient holds that is not only somewhat OK for us but probably really OK for the eastern locals that got washed out last week. BTW, it has been incredibly dry out here this summer and while I would rather not have all of the rain at once, AFAIC it can rain a few inches every day this week.

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TORCON 5 tomorrow. Whatever that means.

This is what he has for today:

Forecast for Tuesday, September 6

DE south - 4

FL northeast, central, south - 2

NC except far southwest - 6

SC except far northwest - 6

VA south-central, southeast - 6

Other areas - less than 2

And only 1 tornado report in the entire country so far... best not give huge credence to it, IMO. Normally he does okay with the TORCON index, but it's probably too optimistic in this case.

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They get reduced to 98% on mine... on a 1920x1080 monitor (take up the whole dang screen <img src='http://208.71.34.143/public/style_emoticons/default/sad.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':(' /> )
I have a larger monitor at work than that and they get reduced more, you lose.
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