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Lee's Remnants and the Mid-Atlantic


WxUSAF

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unreal stories just 15 miles to my South. Steady and slow up is the story with this storm. up to 5.1" total in Ballenger Creek since Sunday with 1.45" since 8 AM this morning; 2.85 in the last 24 hours. My lawn has water sitting on top...I can't image what MoCo looks like especially the rush hour traffic!!

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WOW - been a while since we've had a heavy rain MD here -

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2151

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0521 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...PORTIONS OF FAR NERN

VA...SRN MD

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 082221Z - 090015Z

A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH RATES AROUND 2 IN/HR...WILL

CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

A FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO

PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING. THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WILL EXTEND

FROM MONTGOMERY COUNTY INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE DC AREA AND FARTHER

SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF FAIRFAX AND PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTIES. STERLING

VWP DATA SUGGEST A WELL-DEFINED VEERING WIND PROFILE IN THE LOW

LEVELS...INDICATIVE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP A FRONT THAT

INTERSECTS THE SFC ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION. WITH PW VALUES

/REACHING 2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS/ AROUND 160 PERCENT OF NORMAL PER

AMSU-SSMI DATA...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE OF CONCERN AS MEAN

CLOUD-BEARING FLOW IS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO

MERIDIONALLY-ORIENTED CONVECTIVE BANDS. AMPLE MUCAPE -- 1000 TO 2000

J/KG -- IS BEING UTILIZED WITH A RECENT UPTICK IN CLOUD-TO-GROUND

FLASHES AND NOTABLE CLOUD-TOP COOLING PER IR IMAGERY.

FURTHERMORE...WITH A SIZABLE PORTION OF THE CLOUD-LAYER BELOW THE 0C

ISOTHERM...WARM-RAIN PROCESSES WILL BE SUPPORTED AND ACCELERATE THE

THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE INTENSIFICATION OF LOW-LEVEL SELY

FLOW PER WAKEFIELD VWP WILL SUPPORT MASS CONVERGENCE DURING THE NEXT

FEW HOURS AMIDST THE ABUNDANT DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE TO SUSTAIN A

THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH RATES AROUND 2 IN/HR...THROUGH

POSSIBLY 01Z.

..COHEN.. 09/08/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON 37967730 38497723 38747737 39147749 39437730 39287704

38717683 38187678 37837710 37967730

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