Herb@MAWS Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Life isn't about waiting for the storm to pass, it's about trying to figure out when you might next be able to mow the lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Life isn't about waiting for the storm to pass, it's about trying to figure out when you might next be able to mow the lawn swamp. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 6.83" over the last 3 days ending midnight at BWI, then another 1.86" through 10AM 10.38" at BWI in AUG and 8.69" for SEPT you won't find back-to-back double digit precip totals at BWI (or at Baltimore before BWI) for those 2 months in the records, and I would hardly be going out on a limb by saying BWI will surpass 10" for SEPT, so it looks like we're in record territory fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Life isn't about waiting for the storm to pass, it's about trying to figure out when you might next be able to mow the lawn. First time in months I have walked on my lawn/moss and the ground gave. Very squishy. It is holding so much water I believe if I spit on it there would be a flash flood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 That's what people said at about 3:00 yesterday afternoon. Well a quick look at radar shows that activity is much more scattered and there is not much to the south. So I'd definitely say we'll get a break at some point. Although, more could develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 6.83" over the last 3 days ending midnight at BWI, then another 1.86" through 10AM 10.38" at BWI in AUG and 8.69" for SEPT you won't find back-to-back double digit precip totals at BWI (or at Baltimore before BWI) for those 2 months in the records, and I would hardly be going out on a limb by saying BWI will surpass 10" for SEPT, so it looks like we're in record territory fwiw If those numbers are correct, it is already the greatest two-month period (whole months) on record. Previous was 19.04" in Aug/Sept 1934. The blockbuster August 1955 (18.35") was surrounded by 0.30" and 0.56" on each side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Its not going to rain forever. True. Just for the next couple days. For me, it's all about waiting for evening when the heat lightning starts kicking in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 6.83" over the last 3 days ending midnight at BWI, then another 1.86" through 10AM 10.38" at BWI in AUG and 8.69" for SEPT you won't find back-to-back double digit precip totals at BWI (or at Baltimore before BWI) for those 2 months in the records, and I would hardly be going out on a limb by saying BWI will surpass 10" for SEPT, so it looks like we're in record territory fwiw ========================= More stats -- someone can update this tomorrow with today's data: Sep 5,6, 7 Rainfall Totals: BWI: 1.43, 1.84, 3.40 = 6.67" DCA: 1.36 0.90, 2.82 = 5.08" IAD: 1.09, 1.17, 1.11 = 3.37" HGR: 1.07, 1.21, 0.57 = 2.85" (but also 1.08 on 9/4) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 If those numbers are correct, it is already the greatest two-month period (whole months) on record. Previous was 19.04" in Aug/Sept 1934. The blockbuster August 1955 (18.35") was surrounded by 0.30" and 0.56" on each side. well, I got them off of LWX site preliminary climate data and the hourly data here: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KBWI.html and yeah, I thought that it might be possible about the 2 month record, but I didn't take the time to confirm it to me, record or not, it doesn't mean much if it doesn't help us this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 ========================= More stats -- someone can update this tomorrow with today's data: Sep 5,6, 7 Rainfall Totals: BWI: 1.43, 1.84, 3.40 = 6.67" DCA: 1.36 0.90, 2.82 = 5.08" IAD: 1.09, 1.17, 1.11 = 3.37" HGR: 1.07, 1.21, 0.57 = 2.85" (but also 1.08 on 9/4) you're right, I included the .16" that fell on the 2nd & 3rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Well a quick look at radar shows that activity is much more scattered and there is not much to the south. So I'd definitely say we'll get a break at some point. Although, more could develop. Looks like the line is trying to reach back to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Pouring at work and not so much at home Downtown and just a few drips and drizzles right now. Unless my eyesight is that bad and it's pouring outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 I wouldn't be surprised to see ''Maria'' add on to the monthly totals later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Any more educated minds willing to offer a potential reason why there have been two fairly distinct line of storms that have been relatively the same distance apart? This has happened each time those storms have set up, with the image above starting to sow the same phenomenon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Well it looks like the west shift might be happening. Some new development with that stuff starting to come into the DC area from the south...seems farther west than before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Clarksburg, MD Obs: 04 Sept: 0.53" 05 Sept: 0.93" 06 Sept: 1.72" 07 Sept: 0.95" (so far at 5pm) Running Total: 4.13" Model estimate (with forecaster input) at 4pm update on Sunday from LWX for the front/remnants was 5.61" thru Saturday. I'm always so very impressed at how they do with anomalous events like this. Updated Clarksburg, MD Obs: 04 Sept: 0.53" 05 Sept: 0.93" 06 Sept: 1.72" 07 Sept: 1.68" 08 Sept: 0.29" (so far at 11am) Running Total: 5.15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Went out to the Northwest Branch a few minutes ago to get some pics - lots of standing water in the woods but no significant flooding. However, we are just about at bankfull - the water in the picture below is normally not covering the plants that have been inundated. Pretty high levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Looks like the line is trying to reach back to the south. Well, from the history of this event, the east side of the "column" always got the best action. It looks like a column is setting up to the west of D.C. Will history prove correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Well, from the history of this event, the east side of the "column" always got the best action. It looks like a column is setting up to the west of D.C. Will history prove correct? im not sure "history" means anything other than that if you're just east of the warm front you probably have a better shot at heavier convective rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 8.7" of rain at BWI, month to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 FDK stopped recording rain totals, but the closest wxbug station in Frederick is reporting 4.41" so far this month with another 0.61 so far today, pushing us over the 5" mark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 im not sure "history" means anything other than that if you're just east of the warm front you probably have a better shot at heavier convective rain. Yeah. That's what I meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1004 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2011 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A DEEP FEED OF MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THERE WAS ALSO A LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. ONGOING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS THE BULK OF THE WASHINGTON-BALTIMORE METRO AREA WHILE AREAS WEST OF THERE GENERALLY REMAIN DRY BUT WITH SOME FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE AXIS MAY SHIFT A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND POPS REFLECT THIS EXPECTED CHANGE. FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AS WELL /NOT TO MENTION LOW FFG/ HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A THREAT. SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT HAS LESSENED FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER WITH LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY NEAR THE BAY AND SOME SHEAR...STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS. UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE CWA TONIGHT...AGAIN WITH A SLIGHTLY WESTWARD SHIFT COMPARED TO WHAT/S ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Actually more SBCAPE and MLCAPE west of I-95 today... though likely wont mean much svr wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Over 6 inches IMBY for the storm thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Actually more SBCAPE and MLCAPE west of I-95 today... though likely wont mean much svr wise Yep - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 FDK stopped recording rain totals, but the closest wxbug station in Frederick is reporting 4.41" so far this month with another 0.61 so far today, pushing us over the 5" mark I got 0.40" since 8:00 this morning which puts me at 3.65" since Saturday night. I don't remember if it rained last Thursday or Friday which would add to my total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 the 500 low has weakened a bit but it's still in a favorable spot for spinnys. hopefully the west shift puts one over my house later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 looks like they did add another torn with the second cell last night 0055 2 WNW DAHLGREN KING GEORGE VA 3834 7708 60 TO 70 INCH TREE DOWN BLOCKING DAHLGREN RD (LWX) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 the 500 low has weakened a bit but it's still in a favorable spot for spinnys. hopefully the west shift puts one over my house later. The Ianado of 9/8/2011 In the meantime - looks like DC will get shafted this go around - cutting west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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