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Lee's Remnants and the Mid-Atlantic


WxUSAF

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Clarksburg, MD Obs:

04 Sept: 0.53"

05 Sept: 0.93"

06 Sept: 1.72"

07 Sept: 0.95" (so far at 5pm)

Running Total: 4.13"

Model estimate (with forecaster input) at 4pm update on Sunday from LWX for the front/remnants was 5.61" thru Saturday. I'm always so very impressed at how they do with anomalous events like this.

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Talk about mega flood disaster if we get another tropical system, or the aftermath, before the end of the month. It looks like the Susque Riv. is already going to come close to putting part of Harrisburg PA up the road under water

I thought maybe Nate would sneak up a similar route but it seems most guidance has shifted hard left since yesterday. Initially Lee was not progged to go into the northern gulf either but it did not shift this way. GFS looks like a normal boring Sept pattern for the most part.

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Point of Rocks went from a crest of 32' to a crest of 12' :lol: phail

Many western areas are going to end up with a lot less rain than initially forecast. Down here today mainly made for good pics with brief urban flooding.

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Many western areas are going to end up with a lot less rain than initially forecast. Down here today mainly made for good pics with brief urban flooding.

Yeah this isn't the event, except in those areas that saw sustained training mainly up in PA, that leads to widespread extreme river flooding. The ground is fully saturated, but 3-6" over 72 hours is just wet, not historic. Not to mention upstream river basins (particularly Potomac) didn't wind up with a whole lotta rain.

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Many western areas are going to end up with a lot less rain than initially forecast. Down here today mainly made for good pics with brief urban flooding.

I think the NAM blew the precip totals out west pretty bad, yes? I was looking at a graphic of the NAM on channel 9 earlier. It just didn't make any sense when looking at radar reflectivity.

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I think the NAM blew the precip totals out west pretty bad, yes? I was looking at a graphic of the NAM on channel 9 earlier. It just didn't make any sense when looking at radar reflectivity.

Figuring out exactly where a mostly thin (the good heavy rates came before the fatter blob) band is going to develop/train beforehand is pretty impossible. I think when the NAM has outputs like that it is a signal that someone in the general area will get doused rather than exactly where it puts it.

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Figuring out exactly where a mostly thin (the good heavy rates came before the fatter blob) band is going to develop/train beforehand is pretty impossible. I think when the NAM has outputs like that it is a signal that someone in the general area will get doused rather than exactly where it puts it.

...And that's why you're the met and I'm not...

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