Ian Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 /weenie http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2004/091715.png /weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I go out there on the MD side just about every time we hit flood stage. They close off the walkway to the observation deck and the Billy Goat Trails themselves now when we go over flood stage, but I haven't seen the whole park closed before. Back in '07, we actually were allowed to go into a section of the walkway by climbing on the railing (since the "boardwalk" itself was already covered with water) right before they shut down the entire section. If it gets to the point where the towpath is wiped out again (like in '96 2x), I could see them closing the actual park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 FF Warnings for the Eastern shore of Md until 4 a.m.. Didn't take a lot after Irene to flood low-lying areas there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 /weenie http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2004/091715.png /weenie Ban! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Using THIS site I get the following analog impact map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Using THIS site I get the following analog impact map. matches fairly well in the local area to what sim radar shows etc. i'd pretty much gaurantee a torn watch. i'll take the over on 5 warnings too.. what the heck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 matches fairly well in the local area to what sim radar shows etc. i'd pretty much gaurantee a torn watch. i'll take the over on 5 warnings too.. what the heck. Dear lord. Ian bullish on potential :mapstorm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 matches fairly well in the local area to what sim radar shows etc. i'd pretty much gaurantee a torn watch. i'll take the over on 5 warnings too.. what the heck. Where did Ian go and who are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 2.6" in my gauge since midnight. however, the wxbug station (R. E. Aylor) is reporting only 1.1". I don't know which to believe. Can't be that much difference in precip only 1 mile away. My totals almost always are higher than that station, but I wasn't home most of the day, so I didn't see how hard / long it rained. Winchester Airport reported about 2" since midnight. The high temp today was 59F and the low was 57F assuming the temp doesn't drop another degree in the next half-hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Where did Ian go and who are you? I've probably just been too out of the loop. Check back in the morning... I love a good day of meh session. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I've probably just been too out of the loop. Check back in the morning... I love a good day of meh session. Probably. We shall see. Its likely our last good chance at any good severe weather for the rest of this year barring anything later this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Probably. We shall see. Its likely our last good chance at any good severe weather for the rest of this year barring anything later this month We seem to be in a pattern that favors tropical activity in/around the area. We are running low on time in many respects... and our odds of a normal cold front driven set of svr storms are pretty low going forward. Still, if the Gulf can pump something else out here soonish it might be worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 We seem to be in a pattern that favors tropical activity in/around the area. We are running low on time in many respects... and our odds of a normal cold front driven set of svr storms are pretty low going forward. Still, if the Gulf can pump something else out here soonish it might be worth watching. What would Nov 2010 say to that? That was runner-up to 7/25 in regards to damage (locally). I can recall several good severe events in October more-so than Nov, usually in Weak ENSO or La Nina regimes it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 What would Nov 2010 say to that? That was runner-up to 7/25 in regards to damage (locally). I can recall several good severe events in October more-so than Nov, usually in Weak ENSO or La Nina regimes it seems. I guess you have a point there. In a Nina pattern we probably do better in fall than usual. Though I'm going with general climo and even in a Nina fall you need the right system. Overall it's not as conducive as spring without the remnant winter cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 First "heavy" downpour of the event, really coming down. edit: ended quickly, but pushed the event total to 1.07". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 First "heavy" downpour of the event, really coming down. It just went through DC, but only lasted about 5 minutes. I do notice that LWX keeps pushing off the "1 to 2 inches of rain" in `12 hours for DC. I swear a few hours ago that was in forecast for Wed. night, but now says up to an inch. Seems like they have been saying since Sunday we would get 1 to 2 inches the next night, but then always gets reduced at some point. Probably a good idea to just assume this is not going to be a major flash-flood situation. Instead just a steady, multiple-day, rain event that causes the rivers to rise. But I somehow don't buy yet that all these rivers are going to reach well into major flood stage out of this, despite the heavier rains in the hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 It just went through DC, but only lasted about 5 minutes. I do notice that LWX keeps pushing off the "1 to 2 inches of rain" in `12 hours for DC. I swear a few hours ago that was in forecast for Wed. night, but now says up to an inch. Seems like they have been saying since Sunday we would get 1 to 2 inches the next night, but then always gets reduced at some point. Probably a good idea to just assume this is not going to be a major flash-flood situation. Instead of a steady, multiple-day, rain event that causes the rivers to rise. But I somehow don't buy yet that all these rivers are going to reach well into major flood stage out of this. Well you can't pinpoint convective precipitation as well as you can stratiform. Flash flooding is usually somewhat local anyway, though the heaviest rain potential does not seem to get here until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Gotta watch the front. Still looks south of RIC but then perhaps extending up through the bay (approximate). Starting to see more of the trough going neg tilt with radar returns in NC. Raleigh line and then formative one near Myrtle. Probably too soon to focus on that stuff but seems like the general ARW band that swings north. The Leesburg to Frederick area still need some love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Dang - it is POURING here right now. Sides of our street are a river already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Gotta watch the front. Still looks south of RIC but then perhaps extending up through the bay (approximate). Starting to see more of the trough going neg tilt with radar returns in NC. Raleigh line and then formative one near Myrtle. Probably too soon to focus on that stuff but seems like the general ARW band that swings north. The Leesburg to Frederick area still need some love. Take a look at nat'l radar composite - you can see a connection from our area down to NC, then out into the Atlantic for a bit, then all the way down across FL and into the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Just saw a heat/sheet lightning flash to the south, but nothing on radar there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 It just went through DC, but only lasted about 5 minutes. I do notice that LWX keeps pushing off the "1 to 2 inches of rain" in `12 hours for DC. I swear a few hours ago that was in forecast for Wed. night, but now says up to an inch. Seems like they have been saying since Sunday we would get 1 to 2 inches the next night, but then always gets reduced at some point. Probably a good idea to just assume this is not going to be a major flash-flood situation. Instead just a steady, multiple-day, rain event that causes the rivers to rise. But I somehow don't buy yet that all these rivers are going to reach well into major flood stage out of this, despite the heavier rains in the hills. it's tough to pinpoint the bands ahead of time. someone locally should get rather doused tomorrow. im not completely sure we'll max out potential throughout the whole watershed but places upstream are already getting way up there in totals. it will be interesting to see how much this completely shuts off and when as well as what happens with future prospects. if nothing else we may stay in a pattern where it can build on itself. we've had all sorts of other records of late, maybe we're due to kill off some monthly/seasonal rain ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 temp is climbing for whatever reason, from 60 to 64 degrees in 3hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Take a look at nat'l radar composite - you can see a connection from our area down to NC, then out into the Atlantic for a bit, then all the way down across FL and into the Gulf. it is pretty neat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 It just went through DC, but only lasted about 5 minutes. I do notice that LWX keeps pushing off the "1 to 2 inches of rain" in `12 hours for DC. I swear a few hours ago that was in forecast for Wed. night, but now says up to an inch. BWI, IAD, and DCA have all received 1-2" in each of the last two days. What are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 0z local LWX models are still bullish - maybe even more so than the previous runs I posted. ARW sends some nice storms through that look like they could be the tor contenders and then trains DC metro in heavy rain for many hours. NMM seems to have the same idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 FWIW...State College radar is down with a signal processing error Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Ian's severe analysis looks spot-on to me... Cloud cover (should it exist) and weak surface winds will be the two biggest inhibitors tomorrow... other than that it looks like we're a go for some severe. SPC's 6z outlook puts DC in the middle of a 5% TOR / 15% Wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Thru 5am Wed, we have 1.84" IMBY in E. Columbia for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 12Z HPC 72hr qpf forcast (starts 8:00am) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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