JamieOber Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I don't see where all this rain is supposed to come from. Looking at radar I might get another .25" total before the rain moves out. Is there supposed to be an explosion of qpf later or something? Fair question - there is a back edge on radar. Any thoughts, anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Fair question - there is a back edge on radar. Any thoughts, anyone? Radar extrapabust. The ULL will stop dirfting northeast east and actually move back west. The dryslot will never make it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Radar extrapabust. The ULL will stop dirfting northeast east and actually move back west. The dryslot will never make it.. Better stop like right now cause it is about to make it here in 30 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 The side streets around myself in Carlisle are starting to accumulate standing water quickly now. Lots of areas with 6" the whole way across the road. This is common after a nice deluge in a thunderstorm, but not in a steady rain event like this. I think the ground just raised the white flag with being able to absorb more rain. Speaking of the edge of the rain. The rain seems to have been more scattered due south and SSW across the border all day, but seems to fill in and intensify as soon as it hits the border. SW of us over the mountains its been a constant stream of dark green and yellows all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Radar extrapabust. The ULL will stop dirfting northeast east and actually move back west. The dryslot will never make it.. Better stop like right now cause it is about to make it here in 30 mins. The side streets around myself in Carlisle are starting to accumulate standing water quickly now. Lots of areas with 6" the whole way across the road. This is common after a nice deluge in a thunderstorm, but not in a steady rain event like this. I think the ground just raised the white flag with being able to absorb more rain. Speaking of the edge of the rain. The rain seems to have been more scattered due south and SSW across the border all day, but seems to fill in and intensify as soon as it hits the border. SW of us over the mountains its been a constant stream of dark green and yellows all day. Appears to be filling in some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Dry air has kept heavy rain south and east....this could be a bust..but I wouldn't be complaining!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Fair question - there is a back edge on radar. Any thoughts, anyone? I feel like i've been watching the back edge in WV for at least the past 24 hours, but precip continues to regenerate as it lifts up into SW PA. It does appear more scattered in nature attm in that neck of the woods.. but I don't think our area is going to get too long of a break in the rain overnight if it happens. Zak may see more of a break. As the flow turns SSE overnight and we lift the warm front back overhead I think we will begin to possibly see where this region of enhanced rainfall is going to setup and where these excessive totals are going to end up. As I watch closely on the radar I do notice the motion is starting to show signs of a more south to north trajectory. 18z NAM seems to hold serve keeping it back in the central counties, even in the west central for a time. 18z GFS is noticeably further ene with its axis this go around and still really wet... putting the 6-10+ totals in the sus river basin and focusing its 10+ in NE PA. 12z Euro kept its region of 5+ just a bit right of smack dab in the middle 1/3 of the state. I basically haven't seen it stop raining in 30 some hours, which is already pretty impressive. My grandfathers rain gauge when I saw it around 5pm today was a hair over 3.5" which includes the nearly 2 inches we got on Sunday. So the doppler estimates around the area seem pretty sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 What I find interesting is that both the 18Z NAM and GFS give kmdt most of its qpf from 18Z Wednesday to 18Z Thursday in lots of convective rainfall with the GFS adding an additional 3.5" to 4" in that time period. Seems almost like a redux from Sunday only longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted September 7, 2011 Author Share Posted September 7, 2011 4.03 since Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Just over 5" since Sunday night here. Another 3-5" at least it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Storm totals in the Lower Susquehanna seem to range from 4.25" at Kmdt to around 5.75" out to the west in Cumberland County, so that tight gradiant appears to be somewhat in line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 The darn HP needs to stop building into my area! The barometer is still slightly rising and is causing the dry air to eat up the precip pushing in from the south . I have noticed the precip is begining to set up more south to north with its movement, but it still has a slight NNE trajectory to it. I'm ready for my 7" of rain, I still don't think it is going to be enough to cause moderate flood stage, or at least here anyways. The main reason is the precip is going to be heavy but over a longer duration giving the dry soil enough to time to soak up the majority of the rainfall preventing extreme runoff. The places that saw decent rainfall from Irene are the ones that have to worry about flooding, or central PA. I think north central PA escapes the worst of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Good lord 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 How are we going to get those totals...lol?? Band only goes from IPT to MDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 2.76 today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 The radar looks rather anemic! Do I smell bust potential , I'm sure it will fill in later in the morning. I still think totals are going to be too high, I would be very surprised to see 10"+ amounts. The SREF, GEFS have all cut down totals throughout the day starting with the 12Z runs to now. I think the GFS was having convective feedback issues. A Big fat 0.00" today!, although the GFS only had me getting .20" today so it wasn't too far off. I see areas to the east have picked up 2"+ today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 As of 1:20 KCCX (state college) radar is down with a signal processing error Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 New HPC qpf forcast from 8 a.m. today for 72hrs. Apparently the new bulls-eye is the Susquehanna river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mahantango Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 New HPC qpf forcast from 8 a.m. today for 72hrs. Apparently the new bulls-eye is the Susquehanna river. So, flooding will continue for several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 So, flooding will continue for several days. No clue about flooding but if KMDT gets another 5" it's trouble. There storm total as of 5:30 am is 4.92". When was the last time Harrisburg received 10" from a storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Should easily surpass 6" sometime today here in Lebanon County. Saw the SPC has parts of SE PA in a slight risk for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mahantango Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Rainfall: Sunday to early Monday: 2.8 Monday 4:30pm-Tues. 4:30pm 2.1 Tues. 4:30-10:30pm: 1.8 Tues. 10:30pm Wed.-6:30am 2.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 No clue about flooding but if KMDT gets another 5" it's trouble. There storm total as of 5:30 am is 4.92". When was the last time Harrisburg received 10" from a storm? What did Agnes give us in 1972? i actually have the book "Flood-Pennsylvania 1972" sitting on my desk, but couldn't find rain totals. Also in '75 when we had flooding? i'll do some checking as soon as i finish a small project this am.. Heavy rain now in Harrisburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 What did Agnes give us in 1972? i actually have the book "Flood-Pennsylvania 1972" sitting on my desk, but couldn't find rain totals. Also in '75 when we had flooding? i'll do some checking as soon as i finish a small project this am.. Heavy rain now in Harrisburg Going from memory Agnes was around 17" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 Going from memory Agnes was around 17" see, i said to a older co-worker i thought it was around 15, he said i was nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 the other was Hurricane Eloise. in September 1975. i'm searching for rainfall totals now Edit: 7-10 fell in Pa from Eloise http://en.wikipedia....urricane_Eloise here is link for Agnes: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Agnes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 It says 15" for hbg on the CDT page and "16 for York. Some places just north of Hbg had "19. I guess the south to north training begins now. Heavy rain in Carlisle with a stream straight down to Virgina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 see, i said to a older co-worker i thought it was around 15, he said i was nuts. That was 17" over 3 days. I was living on Blue Mountain at the time (up Fishing Creek Valley) and remember it well. Was stranded for days by a washed out bridge at the Blue Mountain Hotel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 see, i said to a older co-worker i thought it was around 15, he said i was nuts. Had 12.5" in my part of Lancaster county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 4:89 so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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